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12-09-2016, 09:40 AM
[Capitaland Commercial Results] http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/CCT_2Q20...eID=413364
[Investmentmoat write up] http://investmentmoats.com/money-managem...t+Moats%29
Developments on the office space front shows that office rentals will hover at an average monthly rental of s$8.50-9psf for the next few years. This is due to the fact that office rentals for new premises are going at 7.50 to 10+ psf from the above blog post. And there are more supply coming and new developments are not fully pre-committed yet.
From CCT slides, current average rental for grade A is s$9.50psf, while CCT's average rental is about s$$8.90. This means we can estimate rentals to fall about $1 psf in time to come. That is about a 12% decrease. Assuming the full effect trickles down to dividends, this meas at current price of $1.615, the forward yield (in this tough environment) is about 4.7%.
Is that a fair valuation? To me, I don't think so and I will prefer a yield of about 5%.
[Investmentmoat write up] http://investmentmoats.com/money-managem...t+Moats%29
Developments on the office space front shows that office rentals will hover at an average monthly rental of s$8.50-9psf for the next few years. This is due to the fact that office rentals for new premises are going at 7.50 to 10+ psf from the above blog post. And there are more supply coming and new developments are not fully pre-committed yet.
From CCT slides, current average rental for grade A is s$9.50psf, while CCT's average rental is about s$$8.90. This means we can estimate rentals to fall about $1 psf in time to come. That is about a 12% decrease. Assuming the full effect trickles down to dividends, this meas at current price of $1.615, the forward yield (in this tough environment) is about 4.7%.
Is that a fair valuation? To me, I don't think so and I will prefer a yield of about 5%.