TTJ Holdings

[CityFarmer]

CF thanks for the valuation with the PBT. However there is likely a cyclical component to go with TTJ's steel biz as they do depend on some cyclical sectors for business and which will render the historical 5 year PBT inaccurate. I am pretty sure these sectors are not showing uptrend, with the shrinking revenue stream we are seeing. 

With small caps without a moat, stability of earnings in sector downturn is also not guaranteed. And for those chasing growth pretty much non-existent for this local based co.

from what I have seen on this thread, order book only increased to 122mio this quarter? if that is so then with SG property/economy downturn coming, could TTJ end up with an revenue of only ~60mio+ a year? translating to only ~1.5-2c EPS a year?

One of the differences, among us, is you always has top-down view, while I prefer to do the bottom-up. IMO, TTJ biz model has a moat, albeit a small-cap company. Based on BCA estimation, construction value still substantial in the next few years. There are also gov infrastructure project, includes MRTs. I am confidence, TTJ is able to capture sufficient contract, to remain profitable, and continue to generate cash flow.

The only likely catalyst for this stock given its low float(top 20 own 91.5%) is a privatisation, in which case would happen at ~29c, factoring the div hit to NAV. This is a very big risk. If share price drifts downwards in the next few years, those buying today or even after XD run the risk of a G.O. at depressed prices..

Pretty fairly valued now, CF u must think its another  "wonderful" company

Privatization with a depressed price, is a valid concern. IMO, the risk remains low, with the track record of the management.

Yes, it is a "wonderful" little company, but not a core holding due to its liquidity. It is unlike Penguin, with free-float of 74%.