24-02-2015, 05:27 PM
(24-02-2015, 05:02 PM)Debronic Wrote:(24-02-2015, 04:14 PM)egghead Wrote: Shell company still have expenses to pay. Will I pay $77.8 for $80.3 - can't say I am excited.
If you look at the past few announcements on its cash balances and expenses, you can estimate that the burn rate is unlikely to be more than $1 mil per year and will be mitigated by interest from the cash.
The $80 mil is what I see as a floor because it consists of mostly liquid net assets. Upside will come from RTOs or other corporate actions from potential acquirer of UE. Just as an illustration, shell value will typically add around $10-15 mil in an RTO situation.
In any case, I already pointed out this is going to be a very low risk and limited return scenario. Not the kind of investment for everyone. But if you have cash stashed aside and not being able to find any bargains in this environment, this is not the worse stock you can buy.
I reckon you are consistent with egghead, "limited return scenario" == "can't say I am excited"

The burn rate estimation is around 0.7-0.8 mil, and let's put it as 1 mil. One year later, the cash will be reduced by 12 mil, and make the remaining around 70 mil, or 10-11 cents per share. The cost to park capital here, is the opportunity cost, I guess.
(not vested, and one of the stocks watched)
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡