Oil Prices

[CityFarmer]

Agreed. It always worked to invest by focusing on fundamentals, rather than to invest by trying to "time" a trend e.g. oil price

The oil market is hard to predict, as in the stock market...

Actually oil is much harder to predict because it was a cartel with very strong political elbowing.

Like I said OPEC is largest exporter while US (and increasingly China) are largest consumer. There is a difference in the dynamics.

Believe it or not prior to shale I always tell people don't bother to analyse oil prices. Analyse alpha companies with good management and models that can navigate through high and low oil prices against peers, and build competitive advantage.

Inline with what I've been saying. In 6 months we will see the delta of shale growth drop substantially:

"Billionaire wildcatter Harold Hamm, a founding father of the U.S. shale boom whose personal fortune has fallen by more than half in the past three months, said U.S. drilling will slow as producers cut back amid falling oil prices.

--snip--

Hamm has said in the past that his company can turn a profit at prices of $50 a barrel. Continental plans to boost output by as much as 29 percent next year, while holding spending at 2014 levels, according to a Nov. 6 company presentation. Hamm declined to say how those plans may change if prices fall further."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-01...-slow.html