OSIM International

(08-11-2014, 08:13 PM)LocalOptimal Wrote:

(08-11-2014, 07:58 PM)crabcrab Wrote: Osim Int'l ($1.80) - This massage chair company has seen its biggest declined in share price in recent month. A growth company with Osim, Gnc & Twg under its brand name. It seems to me that the recent shorts of this counter may be coordinated effort, timely and swiftly especially before the announcement of Q3 results. The so-called Analyst reports are often timely to put salt on wounds and acted as catalyst of fear...Fundamentally, OSIM at current level may be start to be a fair value of a trading stock. All negative news seems to have been factored in and foreign funds as net sellers of Osim in recent weeks seems to have become net buyers the last few trading days (Crab start trading recently in Osim and the counter parties were largely foreign funds)... In the near term, possibly went back above $2.00 due to massive short covering in OSIM shares? At this time, it is of anyone guess.. But seems that the longist are striking back... Gd luck..

(0Crabcrab vested, caveat emptor)

I believe there is already a thread on this...

Yes, it should be a mistake, OSIM isn't a SEHK listed, but SGX listed company. I merged the new thread into the existing one.

Please take note.

Regards
Moderator

(08-11-2014, 08:14 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Gd Luck Crab....

Trading a big downtrend stock can be exciting when you catch a turning point...

What if the turning point is false? GG almost got killed trying luck on AGO, Atlas Iron. I lost a finger... that iron stock has since plunged to 23 from my last cut loss level of 36.5. Note I start trading at 55 late Sept when stock was deleted from S&P index rebalancing...

Osim's earnings model has never been transparent - both in terms of chair, vitamins and even TWG.

That bad patch post GFC when the stock was dumped to a penny stock status is a good reminder.

I won't dare catch a falling knife. Got $ better off writing off against a Uinfinity and get some enjoyment.

Odd Lots Vested
GG

(08-11-2014, 07:58 PM)crabcrab Wrote: Osim Int'l ($1.80) - This massage chair company has seen its biggest declined in share price in recent month. A growth company with Osim, Gnc & Twg under its brand name. It seems to me that the recent shorts of this counter may be coordinated effort, timely and swiftly especially before the announcement of Q3 results. The so-calles Analyst reports are like putting salt on wounds.. Fundamentally, OSIM at current level may be start to be a fair value of a trading stock. All negative news seems to have been factored in and net sellers of Osim in previous recent weeks seems to have become net buyers (Crab start trading recently in Osim and saw the counter parties were largely foreign funds)... In the near term, possibly went back above $2.00 due to massive short covering in OSIM shares? At this time, it is of anyone guess.. But seems that the longist are striking back... Gd luck..

(0Crabcrab vested, caveat emptor)

Many may be confused between "trading a stock" and "investing a stock". Allow me to further elaborate...

In the recent scenario of OSIM, that will depend on whether one placed a view on trading or on value investing. IMO, Osim is definitely not for those who are looking for a steady dividend with a steady stock price. However, the recent volatility made it a valid reason to trade in this counter. Be it to short or long, the ability for the price to move (be it up or down since we can trade on both side) must be the key factor for a trading stock. Be it Osim trading at $3.00 per share or $0.10 per share, still it is the price fluctuation that counts in a trading stock. And you must guess the direction right to make gains. If one take on a view of value investing, stocks like Osim should never be in one's portfolio due to its profile..

In contrary, we should invest and not trade on good quality undervalued shares with little price movement. (I don't call them blue chips as blue chips may not necessary be undervalued). Many will know that companies like Hiap Hoe and Bonvest had deep value. But so what if it is cheap? There is little price movement. We should avoid such stocks if we take a trading stand. If one take a short stance in trading such stocks, it is more likely that the price movement is likely to be minimal, unless some positive/negative announcement that act as catalyst made the price to fluctuate suddenly. Over the long run, these companies should move upwards, provided no major negative development.

So it depends on whether we are taking a position on investing or trading. In summary, trading means we want price movement and never mind that valuation. We just want to make from the price difference.. (Be it we long or short the shares)
But in investing, we want values, anything that is undervalue can make a bet in it.

So what is your stand now, trading or investing? Good luck..

(09-11-2014, 11:59 AM)crabcrab Wrote:

(08-11-2014, 08:14 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Gd Luck Crab....

Trading a big downtrend stock can be exciting when you catch a turning point...

What if the turning point is false? GG almost got killed trying luck on AGO, Atlas Iron. I lost a finger... that iron stock has since plunged to 23 from my last cut loss level of 36.5. Note I start trading at 55 late Sept when stock was deleted from S&P index rebalancing...

Osim's earnings model has never been transparent - both in terms of chair, vitamins and even TWG.

That bad patch post GFC when the stock was dumped to a penny stock status is a good reminder.

I won't dare catch a falling knife. Got $ better off writing off against a Uinfinity and get some enjoyment.

Odd Lots Vested
GG

(08-11-2014, 07:58 PM)crabcrab Wrote: Osim Int'l ($1.80) - This massage chair company has seen its biggest declined in share price in recent month. A growth company with Osim, Gnc & Twg under its brand name. It seems to me that the recent shorts of this counter may be coordinated effort, timely and swiftly especially before the announcement of Q3 results. The so-calles Analyst reports are like putting salt on wounds.. Fundamentally, OSIM at current level may be start to be a fair value of a trading stock. All negative news seems to have been factored in and net sellers of Osim in previous recent weeks seems to have become net buyers (Crab start trading recently in Osim and saw the counter parties were largely foreign funds)... In the near term, possibly went back above $2.00 due to massive short covering in OSIM shares? At this time, it is of anyone guess.. But seems that the longist are striking back... Gd luck..

(0Crabcrab vested, caveat emptor)

Many may be confused between "trading a stock" and "investing a stock". Allow me to further elaborate...

In the recent scenario of OSIM, that will depend on whether one placed a view on trading or on value investing. IMO, Osim is definitely not for those who are looking for a steady dividend with a steady stock price. However, the recent volatility made it a valid reason to trade in this counter. Be it to short or long, the ability for the price to move (be it up or down since we can trade on both side) must be the key factor for a trading stock. Be it Osim trading at $3.00 per share or $0.10 per share, still it is the price fluctuation that counts in a trading stock. And you must guess the direction right to make gains. If one take on a view of value investing, stocks like Osim should never be in one's portfolio due to its profile..

In contrary, we should invest and not trade on good quality undervalued shares with little price movement. (I don't call them blue chips as blue chips may not necessary be undervalued). Many will know that companies like Hiap Hoe and Bonvest had deep value. But so what if it is cheap? There is little price movement. We should avoid such stocks if we take a trading stand. If one take a short stance in trading such stocks, it is more likely that the price movement is likely to be minimal, unless some positive/negative announcement that act as catalyst made the price to fluctuate suddenly. Over the long run, these companies should move upwards, provided no major negative development.

So it depends on whether we are taking a position on investing or trading. In summary, trading means we want price movement and never mind that valuation. We just want to make from the price difference.. (Be it we long or short the shares)
But in investing, we want values, anything that is undervalue can make a bet in it.

So what is your stand now, trading or investing? Good luck..

convinced... you know what you are doing... Good luck.

GG

(09-11-2014, 11:59 AM)crabcrab Wrote:

(08-11-2014, 08:14 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Gd Luck Crab....

Trading a big downtrend stock can be exciting when you catch a turning point...

What if the turning point is false? GG almost got killed trying luck on AGO, Atlas Iron. I lost a finger... that iron stock has since plunged to 23 from my last cut loss level of 36.5. Note I start trading at 55 late Sept when stock was deleted from S&P index rebalancing...

Osim's earnings model has never been transparent - both in terms of chair, vitamins and even TWG.

That bad patch post GFC when the stock was dumped to a penny stock status is a good reminder.

I won't dare catch a falling knife. Got $ better off writing off against a Uinfinity and get some enjoyment.

Odd Lots Vested
GG

(08-11-2014, 07:58 PM)crabcrab Wrote: Osim Int'l ($1.80) - This massage chair company has seen its biggest declined in share price in recent month. A growth company with Osim, Gnc & Twg under its brand name. It seems to me that the recent shorts of this counter may be coordinated effort, timely and swiftly especially before the announcement of Q3 results. The so-calles Analyst reports are like putting salt on wounds.. Fundamentally, OSIM at current level may be start to be a fair value of a trading stock. All negative news seems to have been factored in and net sellers of Osim in previous recent weeks seems to have become net buyers (Crab start trading recently in Osim and saw the counter parties were largely foreign funds)... In the near term, possibly went back above $2.00 due to massive short covering in OSIM shares? At this time, it is of anyone guess.. But seems that the longist are striking back... Gd luck..

(0Crabcrab vested, caveat emptor)

Many may be confused between "trading a stock" and "investing a stock". Allow me to further elaborate...

In the recent scenario of OSIM, that will depend on whether one placed a view on trading or on value investing. IMO, Osim is definitely not for those who are looking for a steady dividend with a steady stock price. However, the recent volatility made it a valid reason to trade in this counter. Be it to short or long, the ability for the price to move (be it up or down since we can trade on both side) must be the key factor for a trading stock. Be it Osim trading at $3.00 per share or $0.10 per share, still it is the price fluctuation that counts in a trading stock. And you must guess the direction right to make gains. If one take on a view of value investing, stocks like Osim should never be in one's portfolio due to its profile..

In contrary, we should invest and not trade on good quality undervalued shares with little price movement. (I don't call them blue chips as blue chips may not necessary be undervalued). Many will know that companies like Hiap Hoe and Bonvest had deep value. But so what if it is cheap? There is little price movement. We should avoid such stocks if we take a trading stand. If one take a short stance in trading such stocks, it is more likely that the price movement is likely to be minimal, unless some positive/negative announcement that act as catalyst made the price to fluctuate suddenly. Over the long run, these companies should move upwards, provided no major negative development.

So it depends on whether we are taking a position on investing or trading. In summary, trading means we want price movement and never mind that valuation. We just want to make from the price difference.. (Be it we long or short the shares)
But in investing, we want values, anything that is undervalue can make a bet in it.

So what is your stand now, trading or investing? Good luck..

Hi crabcrab,

I am interested with your statement below:
" If one take on a view of value investing, stocks like Osim should never be in one's portfolio due to its profile.."

I bought OSIM 1 year ago when it was at $2.0, when I though I am doing value investing based on its earning and growth. Now, it is showing I was wrong. But, the question is , do you know it is not suitable for value investing even at 1 year ago? If yes, how?

Appreciated if you could enlighten me on that!

GSG

Basing your investment on earnings and growth should be more of "growth" investing and not value investing.

It's best to read up on value investing and growth investing before testing your hard earned money in the real market thinking you are using either method..
Quick primer for you..
Income, Value and Growth Stocks
hope it's helpful

Always remember to look at 10 year lows for every stock you buy, OSIM can and may go back down to 5 cents. The way they are planning their business expansion into Russia and Turkey, they are just asking for the share price to go down...

"ohh i thought i saw a putty tat!"

-not vest- TP 10cents.

(09-11-2014, 08:24 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: Basing your investment on earnings and growth should be more of "growth" investing and not value investing.

It's best to read up on value investing and growth investing before testing your hard earned money in the real market thinking you are using either method..
Quick primer for you..
Income, Value and Growth Stocks
hope it's helpful

Always remember to look at 10 year lows for every stock you buy, OSIM can and may go back down to 5 cents. The way they are planning their business expansion into Russia and Turkey, they are just asking for the share price to go down...

"ohh i thought i saw a putty tat!"

-not vest- TP 10cents.

Thanks! Read the link, I should say I am looking for growth stock.

Back to OSIM, May I ask what was your opinion on OSIM 1 year ago, before knowing their expansion plan to Russia, Turkey, before knowing this quarter's poor results, before knowing their new bond issue.

(09-11-2014, 09:11 PM)GSG Wrote: Thanks! Read the link, I should say I am looking for growth stock.

Back to OSIM, May I ask what was your opinion on OSIM 1 year ago, before knowing their expansion plan to Russia, Turkey, before knowing this quarter's poor results, before knowing their new bond issue.

My opinion has always been that something fishy is going on and this stock is just a stock for playing/gambling/punting.

Even one year ago if you do this simple exercise...

Click on the link below
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=O23.SI
On the chart on the right side click max. Look at how FAST AND FURIOUS this stock has gone up and down for past 10 years.

$2 -> 5 cents -> $2

Now decide if you still want to be vested in this stock.

(09-11-2014, 08:11 PM)GSG Wrote:

(09-11-2014, 11:59 AM)crabcrab Wrote:

(08-11-2014, 08:14 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Gd Luck Crab....

Trading a big downtrend stock can be exciting when you catch a turning point...

What if the turning point is false? GG almost got killed trying luck on AGO, Atlas Iron. I lost a finger... that iron stock has since plunged to 23 from my last cut loss level of 36.5. Note I start trading at 55 late Sept when stock was deleted from S&P index rebalancing...

Osim's earnings model has never been transparent - both in terms of chair, vitamins and even TWG.

That bad patch post GFC when the stock was dumped to a penny stock status is a good reminder.

I won't dare catch a falling knife. Got $ better off writing off against a Uinfinity and get some enjoyment.

Odd Lots Vested
GG

(08-11-2014, 07:58 PM)crabcrab Wrote: Osim Int'l ($1.80) - This massage chair company has seen its biggest declined in share price in recent month. A growth company with Osim, Gnc & Twg under its brand name. It seems to me that the recent shorts of this counter may be coordinated effort, timely and swiftly especially before the announcement of Q3 results. The so-calles Analyst reports are like putting salt on wounds.. Fundamentally, OSIM at current level may be start to be a fair value of a trading stock. All negative news seems to have been factored in and net sellers of Osim in previous recent weeks seems to have become net buyers (Crab start trading recently in Osim and saw the counter parties were largely foreign funds)... In the near term, possibly went back above $2.00 due to massive short covering in OSIM shares? At this time, it is of anyone guess.. But seems that the longist are striking back... Gd luck..

(0Crabcrab vested, caveat emptor)

Many may be confused between "trading a stock" and "investing a stock". Allow me to further elaborate...

In the recent scenario of OSIM, that will depend on whether one placed a view on trading or on value investing. IMO, Osim is definitely not for those who are looking for a steady dividend with a steady stock price. However, the recent volatility made it a valid reason to trade in this counter. Be it to short or long, the ability for the price to move (be it up or down since we can trade on both side) must be the key factor for a trading stock. Be it Osim trading at $3.00 per share or $0.10 per share, still it is the price fluctuation that counts in a trading stock. And you must guess the direction right to make gains. If one take on a view of value investing, stocks like Osim should never be in one's portfolio due to its profile..

In contrary, we should invest and not trade on good quality undervalued shares with little price movement. (I don't call them blue chips as blue chips may not necessary be undervalued). Many will know that companies like Hiap Hoe and Bonvest had deep value. But so what if it is cheap? There is little price movement. We should avoid such stocks if we take a trading stand. If one take a short stance in trading such stocks, it is more likely that the price movement is likely to be minimal, unless some positive/negative announcement that act as catalyst made the price to fluctuate suddenly. Over the long run, these companies should move upwards, provided no major negative development.

So it depends on whether we are taking a position on investing or trading. In summary, trading means we want price movement and never mind that valuation. We just want to make from the price difference.. (Be it we long or short the shares)
But in investing, we want values, anything that is undervalue can make a bet in it.

So what is your stand now, trading or investing? Good luck..

Hi crabcrab,

I am interested with your statement below:
" If one take on a view of value investing, stocks like Osim should never be in one's portfolio due to its profile.."

I bought OSIM 1 year ago when it was at $2.0, when I though I am doing value investing based on its earning and growth. Now, it is showing I was wrong. But, the question is , do you know it is not suitable for value investing even at 1 year ago? If yes, how?

Appreciated if you could enlighten me on that!

GSG

Perhaps, lets just do a very simple case analysis based on this OSIM Annual Report 2013:

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/AR%20201...leID=20346

NTA was 26 cts in 2012 and 36 cts in 2013. So if one is paying for $2.00 that is worth probably only 36 cts when liquidated, one need to ask ownself: why am I willing to pay $2.00 when its net worth is only 36 cts? Then, you got to look at its property if they are currently undervalued? You got to look into its massage chairs if they are undervalued? You got to look into its current business model if it is sustainable? You got to look into its liquid cash assets. You got to look into the team of management whether they are trustable? You even got to look into the web of shareholders structure if they have any external linked which may influence the valuation of its asset at current level, and many others... Then now do we see value if we bought at $2.00? So long we are paying a premium price to a share price, it is not value investing. Let me further elaborate. A share which is trading at $10.00 may be consider cheap if net tangible asset + potential undiscovered net assets is above 30% of current share price. In contrary, if a share price is traded at $0.50 and its price is traded on par or above net assets, it may be considered as expensive. But also one must be aware of value-trap.

However, if one is confidence for its potential future earnings and thereby willing to pay a premium to 'bet' on that future earnings with high growth, one may buy into the stock with the hope that many others may discover the growth and follow through, causing demand exceed supply and, thereby the rise in a share price, vis-a-vis. This is not even called "investing" and there shouldn't be a term called "growth investing". This is called "PUNTING".

Follow through, hedge funds and 'analysts' may take opportunities to write beautiful stories and generating reports, to create pop-up demand among retailers and thereby creating a catalyst for a share price to rise. But be very careful at this stage. Analysts are usually paid to generate such reports to catalyses demand or supply and that they are not serving the retailers. So before a 'sell' call report came out, likely their paying master would have already started to unlock their shares and double short when such reports are released to the retailers. (sounds scary right). So never believe in analyst reports, do your own homework. And be your own analyst that can act before they do. Technical chart is just for reference and pattern of charts can be artificially drawn too by the bbs.

To win the market, one need to understand how the market psychology and the external micro and macro environment that influence the creation of the patterns of chart. Not by reading technical chart and interpreting the chart to win the market.

Lesson end.....

(09-11-2014, 10:26 PM)crabcrab Wrote:

(09-11-2014, 08:11 PM)GSG Wrote:

(09-11-2014, 11:59 AM)crabcrab Wrote:

(08-11-2014, 08:14 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Gd Luck Crab....

Trading a big downtrend stock can be exciting when you catch a turning point...

What if the turning point is false? GG almost got killed trying luck on AGO, Atlas Iron. I lost a finger... that iron stock has since plunged to 23 from my last cut loss level of 36.5. Note I start trading at 55 late Sept when stock was deleted from S&P index rebalancing...

Osim's earnings model has never been transparent - both in terms of chair, vitamins and even TWG.

That bad patch post GFC when the stock was dumped to a penny stock status is a good reminder.

I won't dare catch a falling knife. Got $ better off writing off against a Uinfinity and get some enjoyment.

Odd Lots Vested
GG

(08-11-2014, 07:58 PM)crabcrab Wrote: Osim Int'l ($1.80) - This massage chair company has seen its biggest declined in share price in recent month. A growth company with Osim, Gnc & Twg under its brand name. It seems to me that the recent shorts of this counter may be coordinated effort, timely and swiftly especially before the announcement of Q3 results. The so-calles Analyst reports are like putting salt on wounds.. Fundamentally, OSIM at current level may be start to be a fair value of a trading stock. All negative news seems to have been factored in and net sellers of Osim in previous recent weeks seems to have become net buyers (Crab start trading recently in Osim and saw the counter parties were largely foreign funds)... In the near term, possibly went back above $2.00 due to massive short covering in OSIM shares? At this time, it is of anyone guess.. But seems that the longist are striking back... Gd luck..

(0Crabcrab vested, caveat emptor)

Many may be confused between "trading a stock" and "investing a stock". Allow me to further elaborate...

In the recent scenario of OSIM, that will depend on whether one placed a view on trading or on value investing. IMO, Osim is definitely not for those who are looking for a steady dividend with a steady stock price. However, the recent volatility made it a valid reason to trade in this counter. Be it to short or long, the ability for the price to move (be it up or down since we can trade on both side) must be the key factor for a trading stock. Be it Osim trading at $3.00 per share or $0.10 per share, still it is the price fluctuation that counts in a trading stock. And you must guess the direction right to make gains. If one take on a view of value investing, stocks like Osim should never be in one's portfolio due to its profile..

In contrary, we should invest and not trade on good quality undervalued shares with little price movement. (I don't call them blue chips as blue chips may not necessary be undervalued). Many will know that companies like Hiap Hoe and Bonvest had deep value. But so what if it is cheap? There is little price movement. We should avoid such stocks if we take a trading stand. If one take a short stance in trading such stocks, it is more likely that the price movement is likely to be minimal, unless some positive/negative announcement that act as catalyst made the price to fluctuate suddenly. Over the long run, these companies should move upwards, provided no major negative development.

So it depends on whether we are taking a position on investing or trading. In summary, trading means we want price movement and never mind that valuation. We just want to make from the price difference.. (Be it we long or short the shares)
But in investing, we want values, anything that is undervalue can make a bet in it.

So what is your stand now, trading or investing? Good luck..

Hi crabcrab,

I am interested with your statement below:
" If one take on a view of value investing, stocks like Osim should never be in one's portfolio due to its profile.."

I bought OSIM 1 year ago when it was at $2.0, when I though I am doing value investing based on its earning and growth. Now, it is showing I was wrong. But, the question is , do you know it is not suitable for value investing even at 1 year ago? If yes, how?

Appreciated if you could enlighten me on that!

GSG

Perhaps, lets just do a very simple case study based on this OSIM Annual Report 2013:

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/AR%20201...leID=20346

NTA was 26 cts in 2012 and 36 cts in 2013. So if one is paying for $2.00 that is worth probably only 36 cts when liquidated, one need to ask ownself: why am I willing to pay $2.00 when its net worth is only 36 cts? Then, you got to look at its property if they are currently undervalued? You got to look into its massage chairs if they are undervalued? You got to look into its current business model if it is sustainable? You got to look into its liquid cash assets. You got to look into the team of management whether they are trustable? You even got to look into the web of shareholders structure if they have any external linked which may influence the valuation of its asset at current level, and many others... Then now do we see value if we bought at $2.00? So long we are paying a premium price to a share price, it is not value investing.

However, if one is confidence for its potential future earnings and thereby willing to pay a premium to 'bet' on that future earnings with high growth, one may buy into the stock with the hope that many others may discover the growth and follow through, causing demand exceed supply and, thereby the rise in a share price, vis-a-vis. This is not even called "investing" and there shouldn't be a term called "growth investing". This is called "PUNTING".

Follow through, hedge funds and 'analysts' may take opportunities to write beautiful stories and generating reports, to create pop-up demand among retailers and thereby creating a catalyst for a share price to rise. But be very careful at this stage. Analysts are usually paid to generate such reports to catalyses demand or supply and that they are not serving the retailers. So before a 'sell' call report came out, likely their paying master would have already started to unlock their shares and double short when such reports are released to the retailers. (sounds scary right). So never believe in analyst reports, do your own homework. And be your own analyst that can act before they do. Technical chart is just for reference and pattern of charts can be artificially drawn too by the bbs too.

To win the market, one need to understand how the market psychology and the external micro and macro environment that influence the creation of the patterns of technical chart. Not by reading technical chart and interpreting the chart to win the market.

Lesson end.....

(09-11-2014, 10:30 PM)crabcrab Wrote:

(09-11-2014, 10:26 PM)crabcrab Wrote:

(09-11-2014, 08:11 PM)GSG Wrote:

(09-11-2014, 11:59 AM)crabcrab Wrote:

(08-11-2014, 08:14 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Gd Luck Crab....

Trading a big downtrend stock can be exciting when you catch a turning point...

What if the turning point is false? GG almost got killed trying luck on AGO, Atlas Iron. I lost a finger... that iron stock has since plunged to 23 from my last cut loss level of 36.5. Note I start trading at 55 late Sept when stock was deleted from S&P index rebalancing...

Osim's earnings model has never been transparent - both in terms of chair, vitamins and even TWG.

That bad patch post GFC when the stock was dumped to a penny stock status is a good reminder.

I won't dare catch a falling knife. Got $ better off writing off against a Uinfinity and get some enjoyment.

Odd Lots Vested
GG

Many may be confused between "trading a stock" and "investing a stock". Allow me to further elaborate...

In the recent scenario of OSIM, that will depend on whether one placed a view on trading or on value investing. IMO, Osim is definitely not for those who are looking for a steady dividend with a steady stock price. However, the recent volatility made it a valid reason to trade in this counter. Be it to short or long, the ability for the price to move (be it up or down since we can trade on both side) must be the key factor for a trading stock. Be it Osim trading at $3.00 per share or $0.10 per share, still it is the price fluctuation that counts in a trading stock. And you must guess the direction right to make gains. If one take on a view of value investing, stocks like Osim should never be in one's portfolio due to its profile..

In contrary, we should invest and not trade on good quality undervalued shares with little price movement. (I don't call them blue chips as blue chips may not necessary be undervalued). Many will know that companies like Hiap Hoe and Bonvest had deep value. But so what if it is cheap? There is little price movement. We should avoid such stocks if we take a trading stand. If one take a short stance in trading such stocks, it is more likely that the price movement is likely to be minimal, unless some positive/negative announcement that act as catalyst made the price to fluctuate suddenly. Over the long run, these companies should move upwards, provided no major negative development.

So it depends on whether we are taking a position on investing or trading. In summary, trading means we want price movement and never mind that valuation. We just want to make from the price difference.. (Be it we long or short the shares)
But in investing, we want values, anything that is undervalue can make a bet in it.

So what is your stand now, trading or investing? Good luck..

Hi crabcrab,

I am interested with your statement below:
" If one take on a view of value investing, stocks like Osim should never be in one's portfolio due to its profile.."

I bought OSIM 1 year ago when it was at $2.0, when I though I am doing value investing based on its earning and growth. Now, it is showing I was wrong. But, the question is , do you know it is not suitable for value investing even at 1 year ago? If yes, how?

Appreciated if you could enlighten me on that!

GSG

Perhaps, lets just do a very simple case study based on this OSIM Annual Report 2013:

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/AR%20201...leID=20346

NTA was 26 cts in 2012 and 36 cts in 2013. So if one is paying for $2.00 that is worth probably only 36 cts when liquidated, one need to ask ownself: why am I willing to pay $2.00 when its net worth is only 36 cts? Then, you got to look at its property if they are currently undervalued? You got to look into its massage chairs if they are undervalued? You got to look into its current business model if it is sustainable? You got to look into its liquid cash assets. You got to look into the team of management whether they are trustable? You even got to look into the web of shareholders structure if they have any external linked which may influence the valuation of its asset at current level, and many others... Then now do we see value if we bought at $2.00? So long we are paying a premium price to a share price, it is not value investing.

However, if one is confidence for its potential future earnings and thereby willing to pay a premium to 'bet' on that future earnings with high growth, one may buy into the stock with the hope that many others may discover the growth and follow through, causing demand exceed supply and, thereby the rise in a share price, vis-a-vis. This is not even called "investing" and there shouldn't be a term called "growth investing". This is called "PUNTING".

Follow through, hedge funds and 'analysts' may take opportunities to write beautiful stories and generating reports, to create pop-up demand among retailers and thereby creating a catalyst for a share price to rise. But be very careful at this stage. Analysts are usually paid to generate such reports to catalyses demand or supply and that they are not serving the retailers. So before a 'sell' call report came out, likely their paying master would have already started to unlock their shares and double short when such reports are released to the retailers. (sounds scary right). So never believe in analyst reports, do your own homework. And be your own analyst that can act before they do. Technical chart is just for reference and pattern of charts can be artificially drawn too by the bbs too.

To win the market, one need to understand how the market psychology and the external micro and macro environment that influence the creation of the patterns of technical chart. Not by reading technical chart and interpreting the chart to win the market.

Lesson end.....

Thanks!
I think my mistake is not understanding enough its business mode, in order to tell whether its current business model is sustainable, or even tell whether its historical results are "fishy" as others may feel.