CY09 portfolio

Just an update,

Decided to divest from TTJ and Sing Holdings to add into Sino grandness and Penguin:

Sing Holdings (9.2%)
Penguin (50.8%)
KSH (26.7%)
Fischer (6.0%)
SFIG (7.3%)

(03-11-2014, 12:05 AM)CY09 Wrote: Just an update,

Decided to divest from TTJ and Sing Holdings to add into Sino grandness and Penguin:

Sing Holdings (9.2%)
Penguin (50.8%)
KSH (26.7%)
Fischer (6.0%)
SFIG (7.3%)

I am bullish on Penguin, but I really doubt the rationality of more than 50% weightage on a stock.

Assuming we have done a good job i.e. most if not all known knowns are catered for in your story, sufficient MOS to hedge against the known unknowns and unknown knowns, but we should also stay humble for the real risk of unknown unknowns, IMO

A reasonable diversification helps in hedging the latter, as well as mistakes in the former.

Sharing a thought.

^^Agree with CF. Your portfolio becomes a binary bet for Penguin rendering asset allocation pretty moot. You could be right but your risk of the unknown unknowns is going to be very high. Are you saying your conviction and understanding of Penguin is 9X better than Fischer or SFIG?

Or is this asset allocation a result of averaging down on Penguin? Asset allocation is not only a function of optimising upside but also considering risk. Like the old adage goes: If so sure can make good money might as well go 100%! Reality is no one can be so sure and hence asset allocation is a positioning against risk, so one shouldn't ai-wan when a 7% allocated stock for example SFIG doubled because one also has to consider the risk that the stock could have halved or more as it is a high risk uncertain position

The caveat is of course we are assuming this is the main bulk of your investment worth. If this portfolio is say less than 10% of your overall worth then it can make sense.

I can understand CY09. I also did such allocation before when I first started investing and the amount was small.

(03-11-2014, 01:15 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Or is this asset allocation a result of averaging down on Penguin? Asset allocation is not only a function of optimising upside but also considering risk. Like the old adage goes: If so sure can make good money might as well go 100%! Reality is no one can be so sure and hence asset allocation is a positioning against risk, so one shouldn't ai-wan when a 7% allocated stock for example SFIG doubled because one also has to consider the risk that the stock could have halved or more as it is a high risk uncertain position

If i remember correctly what i read, our dear CY09 was discussing that he had been 'busy battling some sell side houses' on Penguin shares. I didn't really follow up on subsequent events but i suspect it is a result of averaging down. On hindsight, sometimes you can gain big when you catch a falling knife (eg. CMZ when under attack) or u lose really big (and some of their conviction).

On a seperate note, if your portfolio is a big part of your networth, my personal experience is it is much easier to have a behavorial gap between, let's say a company is 10-20% vs 50-70% of your portfolio. It is much harder to control one's emotions of greed/fear and stay rational, if the stock is a huge % of portfolio/network. It calls for a lot of self discipline, conviction and cool heads when things go awry and most of the time, i will bet against myself having the capability to overcome that.

As the saying goes, there is a difference between theory and practice. That difference arises precisely because of all these 'exceptions to the rule' that seems to surface out when 'things don't play out according to the book'. And in real life, generally things never play according to the book.

Hi weijian.

Thanks for the comments. So guess before doing an investment, I have to ask myself first if my next action is due to emotions or rationality

In all my years of investment, I realise the most Impt thing is to do proper portfolio mgmt.
Hv to do proper own research.
Take responsibility for ur own investment decision

(05-11-2014, 11:42 AM)funman168 Wrote: In all my years of investment, I realise the most Impt thing is to do proper portfolio mgmt.
Hv to do proper own research.
Take responsibility for ur own investment decision

Care to share what is portfolio management to you?
Only stock portfolio or total portfolio management?
May learn some ideas from you?
Thanks!

Nothing much to share on my portfolio update except an additional round of purchase of Penguin shares (by selling a bit of Sing Holdings); this time it is a smaller amount. To other VB members, I did hear and evaluated your insightful comments provided. I promise I will seriously consider against increasing the weightage of Penguin further

Sing Holdings (7.3%)
Penguin (51.6%)
KSH (27.2%)
Fischer (6.1%)
SFIG (7.8%)

From here on, it is likely I will do a monthly update.

To round off this update, here is a interesting piece from Fool.sg on investments.
http://www.fool.sg/2014/11/03/are-you-pr...investing/

i wld think that both are equally impt.
one tend to be over-confident with ur own picks.
need to do periodic review to par down the total allocation of ur portofolio esp for stocks.
atlas, my penny stk portfolio was up by abt 200k, but my greed n over confident cause me to nt do the necessary paring down...an expensive lesson indeed!

back to the drawing board n accumulate wealth slow n steady through employment, dividend n rental.

(06-11-2014, 11:48 AM)Temperament Wrote:

(05-11-2014, 11:42 AM)funman168 Wrote: In all my years of investment, I realise the most Impt thing is to do proper portfolio mgmt.
Hv to do proper own research.
Take responsibility for ur own investment decision

Care to share what is portfolio management to you?
Only stock portfolio or total portfolio management?
May learn some ideas from you?
Thanks!