Valuetronics Holdings

(14-10-2014, 01:12 PM)Bibi Wrote:

(14-10-2014, 12:52 PM)Ray168 Wrote: As VI, we should blame ourselves instead of other.

Analyst report is good for reference and not a call for buy/sell. Read their disclaimer.

BTW, KimEng does not published any report in the beginning of 2014. They initiate Sell call on 13Oct2014. Probably you are referring to PhilipCapital bull call.

(14-10-2014, 12:38 PM)Bibi Wrote: Wow, just july this year Kim Eng made a buy call at 61cts. Now become sell at 25 cts. I think the analyst should be sacked.

I should have indicate I am not vested. As VI, I still think the analyst should be sacked or at least condemned in the company. Maybe we should consolidate a list of all analyst names who made bullshit flip-flop buy/sell tgt calls in short period of time.

Most analysts can only do a stock coverage only with approval from their directors and the brokerage, all of whom are acting as nominees for the rich players. They bought it well ahead from tips, so do not blame the analyst who are also another salaried worker. For counters like Valuetronics and many others, the rise is simply too fast and so will be its fall. Anyway, anyone who is into stock market should know it is a zero-sum game, "someone win at the expense of someone lost".

(14-10-2014, 02:17 PM)Ray168 Wrote: To be fair to analyst, KimEng did not publish any report since they ceased cover in mar2012.

Not vested.

(14-10-2014, 01:12 PM)Bibi Wrote:

(14-10-2014, 12:52 PM)Ray168 Wrote: As VI, we should blame ourselves instead of other.

Analyst report is good for reference and not a call for buy/sell. Read their disclaimer.

BTW, KimEng does not published any report in the beginning of 2014. They initiate Sell call on 13Oct2014. Probably you are referring to PhilipCapital bull call.

(14-10-2014, 12:38 PM)Bibi Wrote: Wow, just july this year Kim Eng made a buy call at 61cts. Now become sell at 25 cts. I think the analyst should be sacked.

I should have indicate I am not vested. As VI, I still think the analyst should be sacked or at least condemned in the company. Maybe we should consolidate a list of all analyst names who made bullshit flip-flop buy/sell tgt calls in short period of time.

I made the comment from Post #283. Repost the link to NextInsight website which mention Kim Eng as below:

http://www.nextinsight.net/index.php/sto...9x-ex-cash

The forumer posted it on July 2014. Maybe the report was very outdated.

(21-05-2014, 03:26 PM)NTL Wrote:

(21-05-2014, 01:58 PM)GFG Wrote: I just sold out all my 700 lots yesterday and today at prices between $0.365 - $0.375
Valuetronics has been a good investment for me, with a return of approximately 52% in less than a year.

Reason for selling out is that it has hit my target price, and that the hype means it is no longer cheaply valued.
Will have to find better areas to reinvest the proceeds.

Good luck for the FY14Q4.
I think the dividends will be at least 13 HK cents.
Based on an approximate 40% payout

A nice 50% profit to you. Congrats!

Just to add a little of my opinion. I feel that the hype just started. There will be more upside to come. If the result turn out to be expected, i.e EPS of 40 HK cents, dividend of 16 HK cents, the share price can likely hit 40c or more. Even at 40c, the PE is still less than 4 ex cash, and a decent yield of 6.4%.

Hopefully they will declare a special dividend to rewards their loyal followers.

The wonders of the stock market. I bought and sold at $0.37 at what I thought was a very good profit. As mentioned earlier, I thought it was no longer cheaply valued at my exit price. On hindsight, other VBs who mentioned about more upside to come were right, but IMO, the valuations didnt support that.
There's no way of deciding how far more it rose from my exit.
Just a short few mths since then, now it has crashed to even below my exit.

(14-10-2014, 03:24 PM)GFG Wrote:

(21-05-2014, 03:26 PM)NTL Wrote:

(21-05-2014, 01:58 PM)GFG Wrote: I just sold out all my 700 lots yesterday and today at prices between $0.365 - $0.375
Valuetronics has been a good investment for me, with a return of approximately 52% in less than a year.

Reason for selling out is that it has hit my target price, and that the hype means it is no longer cheaply valued.
Will have to find better areas to reinvest the proceeds.

Good luck for the FY14Q4.
I think the dividends will be at least 13 HK cents.
Based on an approximate 40% payout

A nice 50% profit to you. Congrats!

Just to add a little of my opinion. I feel that the hype just started. There will be more upside to come. If the result turn out to be expected, i.e EPS of 40 HK cents, dividend of 16 HK cents, the share price can likely hit 40c or more. Even at 40c, the PE is still less than 4 ex cash, and a decent yield of 6.4%.

Hopefully they will declare a special dividend to rewards their loyal followers.

The wonders of the stock market. I bought and sold at $0.37 at what I thought was a very good profit. As mentioned earlier, I thought it was no longer cheaply valued at my exit price. On hindsight, other VBs who mentioned about more upside to come were right, but IMO, the valuations didnt support that.
There's no way of deciding how far more it rose from my exit.
Just a short few mths since then, now it has crashed to even below my exit.

very well done, at what price would u consider going in again?

(14-10-2014, 03:24 PM)GFG Wrote: The wonders of the stock market. I bought and sold at $0.37 at what I thought was a very good profit. As mentioned earlier, I thought it was no longer cheaply valued at my exit price. On hindsight, other VBs who mentioned about more upside to come were right, but IMO, the valuations didnt support that.
There's no way of deciding how far more it rose from my exit.
Just a short few mths since then, now it has crashed to even below my exit.

Congrat. It is always good to DIY research, and believe in your own judgement. That is one of the value-investing practices we are promoting.

Regards
Moderator (CF)

(never vested)

(14-10-2014, 03:30 PM)LLS Wrote:

(14-10-2014, 03:24 PM)GFG Wrote:

(21-05-2014, 03:26 PM)NTL Wrote:

(21-05-2014, 01:58 PM)GFG Wrote: I just sold out all my 700 lots yesterday and today at prices between $0.365 - $0.375
Valuetronics has been a good investment for me, with a return of approximately 52% in less than a year.

Reason for selling out is that it has hit my target price, and that the hype means it is no longer cheaply valued.
Will have to find better areas to reinvest the proceeds.

Good luck for the FY14Q4.
I think the dividends will be at least 13 HK cents.
Based on an approximate 40% payout

A nice 50% profit to you. Congrats!

Just to add a little of my opinion. I feel that the hype just started. There will be more upside to come. If the result turn out to be expected, i.e EPS of 40 HK cents, dividend of 16 HK cents, the share price can likely hit 40c or more. Even at 40c, the PE is still less than 4 ex cash, and a decent yield of 6.4%.

Hopefully they will declare a special dividend to rewards their loyal followers.

The wonders of the stock market. I bought and sold at $0.37 at what I thought was a very good profit. As mentioned earlier, I thought it was no longer cheaply valued at my exit price. On hindsight, other VBs who mentioned about more upside to come were right, but IMO, the valuations didnt support that.
There's no way of deciding how far more it rose from my exit.
Just a short few mths since then, now it has crashed to even below my exit.

very well done, at what price would u consider going in again?

I havent analysed the latest financials since I exited my position and instead have reinvested in other companies.
My earlier entry price was around $0.24, but things could have changed since then so I'll have to re analyse again.
In any case, since my earlier investment, I now tend to put more focus on finding companies with obvious competitive moats instead of just going for attractive valuations, so in a way I have been making some adjustments to my portfolio.

I do think Valuetronics has some form of competitive moat. From my queries with IR previously, they mentioned a bit about how their clients' contracts are structured. I had the impression that there's high switching costs. If that's true, it does provide them with some form of moat, but even so, its admittedly not a very strong one.

As mentioned way earlier in this forum, I am also generally uncomfortable with share option remuneration with immediate vesting periods, and with management selling out almost instantly upon vesting. The rationale for using share options as remuneration is to have management interests tied in with common shareholders, but if the vesting period is immediate, the price is at the market price or lower, and if management sells out immediately, then the whole exercise is simply to use the shares as "currency" to reward management and that's a real negative IMO.

(14-10-2014, 03:24 PM)GFG Wrote:

(21-05-2014, 03:26 PM)NTL Wrote:

(21-05-2014, 01:58 PM)GFG Wrote: I just sold out all my 700 lots yesterday and today at prices between $0.365 - $0.375
Valuetronics has been a good investment for me, with a return of approximately 52% in less than a year.

Reason for selling out is that it has hit my target price, and that the hype means it is no longer cheaply valued.
Will have to find better areas to reinvest the proceeds.

Good luck for the FY14Q4.
I think the dividends will be at least 13 HK cents.
Based on an approximate 40% payout

A nice 50% profit to you. Congrats!

Just to add a little of my opinion. I feel that the hype just started. There will be more upside to come. If the result turn out to be expected, i.e EPS of 40 HK cents, dividend of 16 HK cents, the share price can likely hit 40c or more. Even at 40c, the PE is still less than 4 ex cash, and a decent yield of 6.4%.

Hopefully they will declare a special dividend to rewards their loyal followers.

The wonders of the stock market. I bought and sold at $0.37 at what I thought was a very good profit. As mentioned earlier, I thought it was no longer cheaply valued at my exit price. On hindsight, other VBs who mentioned about more upside to come were right, but IMO, the valuations didnt support that.
There's no way of deciding how far more it rose from my exit.
Just a short few mths since then, now it has crashed to even below my exit.

The fall in price is not due to valuation, but due to the possibility of Philips selling off their Lighting business, and the possible impact on Valuetronics. In all the previous discussion, this event had not known to me then.

For now, yes, this uncertainty is certainly weighing down on the future of Valuetronics. So, what should be the value for Valuetronics IF they really lost the entire lighting business? 25c as mentioned by Kim Eng?

Why would Phillips selling off or spinning off LED lighting = loss of that business for Valuetronics? Where would the new owners source their supply from?

(14-10-2014, 06:08 PM)NTL Wrote:

(14-10-2014, 03:24 PM)GFG Wrote:

(21-05-2014, 03:26 PM)NTL Wrote:

(21-05-2014, 01:58 PM)GFG Wrote: I just sold out all my 700 lots yesterday and today at prices between $0.365 - $0.375
Valuetronics has been a good investment for me, with a return of approximately 52% in less than a year.

Reason for selling out is that it has hit my target price, and that the hype means it is no longer cheaply valued.
Will have to find better areas to reinvest the proceeds.

Good luck for the FY14Q4.
I think the dividends will be at least 13 HK cents.
Based on an approximate 40% payout

A nice 50% profit to you. Congrats!

Just to add a little of my opinion. I feel that the hype just started. There will be more upside to come. If the result turn out to be expected, i.e EPS of 40 HK cents, dividend of 16 HK cents, the share price can likely hit 40c or more. Even at 40c, the PE is still less than 4 ex cash, and a decent yield of 6.4%.

Hopefully they will declare a special dividend to rewards their loyal followers.

The wonders of the stock market. I bought and sold at $0.37 at what I thought was a very good profit. As mentioned earlier, I thought it was no longer cheaply valued at my exit price. On hindsight, other VBs who mentioned about more upside to come were right, but IMO, the valuations didnt support that.
There's no way of deciding how far more it rose from my exit.
Just a short few mths since then, now it has crashed to even below my exit.

The fall in price is not due to valuation, but due to the possibility of Philips selling off their Lighting business, and the possible impact on Valuetronics. In all the previous discussion, this event had not known to me then.

For now, yes, this uncertainty is certainly weighing down on the future of Valuetronics. So, what should be the value for Valuetronics IF they really lost the entire lighting business? 25c as mentioned by Kim Eng?

I consider that part of valuation; not quantitative perhaps, but definitely qualitative valuation
It's precisely the weak moat that valuetronics has, that warrants a wide MOS.
When I sold out at 0.37-0.38, the valuations quantitatively were still pretty cheap, but taking into account valuetronics is in a business where it's just simply difficult to get much of a moat, the valuations can't just be cheap. Many manufacturers are cheap and remain so indefinitely
Looking at the economics of the business, the price can't just be cheap, it has to be ridiculously cheap. IMO, once it starts looking just cheap, it becomes a mediocre investment. As WB said, an average company at a great price can be a gd investment, the reverse is true as well
Even if Philips sells out, I don't think they will cut off valuetronics as a manufacturer immediately. The new owners, as with any acquisition, will look at their revenue and costs and prob try to squeeze their margins further

(14-10-2014, 04:16 PM)GFG Wrote: As mentioned way earlier in this forum, I am also generally uncomfortable with share option remuneration with immediate vesting periods, and with management selling out almost instantly upon vesting. The rationale for using share options as remuneration is to have management interests tied in with common shareholders, but if the vesting period is immediate, the price is at the market price or lower, and if management sells out immediately, then the whole exercise is simply to use the shares as "currency" to reward management and that's a real negative IMO.

Can you quote a few examples of this happening?