Why investors are ignoring war, terror and turmoil

(15-09-2014, 12:02 AM)specuvestor Wrote: Last time i heard "politics didn't matter" for a sustained period was Japan in the 90s

For sure i was expecting Syria, Ukraine, Argentina, China slowdown, Eurozone slowdown, dot com burst, Ebola, Iraq, Aussie and UK property bubble, Fed tapering.... One of them to be the catalyst for markets to wind downwards starting August.

So far markets have been extremely resilient. Reminds me of 2007 Summer when Bear Sterns collapsed. Yet market went for final burst of new high in October before realising gravity still exists

Mentality now seemed to be central banks will backstop no matter what. I think this is true for ECB but i doubt it is true for rest of world, either politically or capacity wise

Unknowingly to many including myself, MSCI Asia ex Japan has actually stealthily peaked on 4th September

Possible big financial event coming. Markets will start retreat once fed bond buying ends, but obama is just gonna print more again and up markets go again.

china slowdown is a big risk now and the russians might get more aggressive.

Otherwise seems like party will continue till we hit the usual 10 year tipping point. 1997, 2007, 2017 B-) people never learn


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There are cycles to just about everything, and its not that people do not learn.. they do. Its the newer entrants that have not experienced the cycles or disbelieve that cycles exists.

Some people never bring an umbrella with them, but when it rains... they mumble about inconvenience... the lack of taxis etc.

People have not learnt how to predict the top and bottoms of cycles.

The game is to be the last man standing.... with an umbrella, a taxi and dry.

(03-10-2014, 11:59 AM)BlueKelah Wrote: Possible big financial event coming. Markets will start retreat once fed bond buying ends, but obama is just gonna print more again and up markets go again.

china slowdown is a big risk now and the russians might get more aggressive.

Otherwise seems like party will continue till we hit the usual 10 year tipping point. 1997, 2007, 2017 B-) people never learn


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If the "never learn" means never learn to time the market, than I am one of the them, the "stubborn" group

I reckon Mr. Buffett is also one of them, with his recent $8 billion acquisition on Van Tuyl Group.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/berkshire...1412253366

Wah buddy,

U also start to subscribe to 10 year cycle theory?

Anyway, which way u look at it, the work is too sick to be able to afford social chaos for the time being and hence we can count on policy makers to keep everything as loose as possible till they are confident.

GG

(03-10-2014, 11:59 AM)BlueKelah Wrote: Possible big financial event coming. Markets will start retreat once fed bond buying ends, but obama is just gonna print more again and up markets go again.

china slowdown is a big risk now and the russians might get more aggressive.

Otherwise seems like party will continue till we hit the usual 10 year tipping point. 1997, 2007, 2017 B-) people never learn


via Xperia Z1 tapatalk.