China Merchants Holdings Pacific

(23-09-2014, 02:39 PM)Jack31 Wrote: Did a simple calculation on max capacity of the toll road. All are still far from reaching their maximum capacity.

Ytw: 60 x 30days x 3mths = 5400 (2Q: 2656)
BL: 62 x 30 x 3 = 5580 (2Q: 2553)
JR: ( far far from max capacity)
GL: 62 x 30 x 3 = 5580 (2Q: 1396)
GH: (54 + 76) x 30 x 3 = 11700 ( 2Q: 5283)

All are actually less then Half their max capacity. Expect more growth as long as economic in the region and numbers of cars are still growing.

Realistically what is the % of capacity that a matured toll road can reach?

(23-09-2014, 04:06 PM)value seeker Wrote:

(23-09-2014, 02:39 PM)Jack31 Wrote: Did a simple calculation on max capacity of the toll road. All are still far from reaching their maximum capacity.

Ytw: 60 x 30days x 3mths = 5400 (2Q: 2656)
BL: 62 x 30 x 3 = 5580 (2Q: 2553)
JR: ( far far from max capacity)
GL: 62 x 30 x 3 = 5580 (2Q: 1396)
GH: (54 + 76) x 30 x 3 = 11700 ( 2Q: 5283)

All are actually less then Half their max capacity. Expect more growth as long as economic in the region and numbers of cars are still growing.

Realistically what is the % of capacity that a matured toll road can reach?

I do not know. Taking into the difference in volume everyday, in practice 90% should not be a problem I guess? Of course who is to say they can't operate at 110%, 120%, 150%? just look at at Singapore..

(23-09-2014, 03:40 PM)investright Wrote: Hi all, I was looking at the consolidated income statement and wanted to ask a noob question:

1. Should we look at profit attributable to Owners or Profit for financial year?
2. If we look at profit attributable to Owners, how do we adjust it for the cash flow statements?

1) Depends what you are looking for. If you want to know how much profit your investment is making - look at profit attributable to shareholders. This discounts the 49% stake in YTW.

2) You can't. You can try to deduct dividends paid to minority interest (the 49% of YTW) from the FCF to get a rough estimate.

If we don't know the cash flow (and from what i see the balance sheet as well which only shows the equity attributable to shareholders but not the individual assets etc) that belongs to the us, isn't there too much uncertainty when we are deciding whether the company is worth buying at current prices? Is there any other way or other reasons that make you think this is a good investment?

(23-09-2014, 06:46 PM)Nick Wrote:

(23-09-2014, 03:40 PM)investright Wrote: Hi all, I was looking at the consolidated income statement and wanted to ask a noob question:

1. Should we look at profit attributable to Owners or Profit for financial year?
2. If we look at profit attributable to Owners, how do we adjust it for the cash flow statements?

1) Depends what you are looking for. If you want to know how much profit your investment is making - look at profit attributable to shareholders. This discounts the 49% stake in YTW.

2) You can't. You can try to deduct dividends paid to minority interest (the 49% of YTW) from the FCF to get a rough estimate.

Equity investment decisions are the easiest - its Binary - BUY (Stay Long) or Sell (Keep Avoiding).

Make yr decision just Nike... and cut out the noise...

BUY / SELL YMMV

GG

(23-09-2014, 08:46 PM)investright Wrote: If we don't know the cash flow (and from what i see the balance sheet as well which only shows the equity attributable to shareholders but not the individual assets etc) that belongs to the us, isn't there too much uncertainty when we are deciding whether the company is worth buying at current prices? Is there any other way or other reasons that make you think this is a good investment?

(23-09-2014, 06:46 PM)Nick Wrote:

(23-09-2014, 03:40 PM)investright Wrote: Hi all, I was looking at the consolidated income statement and wanted to ask a noob question:

1. Should we look at profit attributable to Owners or Profit for financial year?
2. If we look at profit attributable to Owners, how do we adjust it for the cash flow statements?

1) Depends what you are looking for. If you want to know how much profit your investment is making - look at profit attributable to shareholders. This discounts the 49% stake in YTW.

2) You can't. You can try to deduct dividends paid to minority interest (the 49% of YTW) from the FCF to get a rough estimate.

hi, you need to practice the accounting reading and when in doubt, look them up more. the cash flow is there for all to see. its just that its not presented easily for all to see. we didn't get any prvileged information. its all from the annual report.

you just have to piece everything together. cash flow is not fixed, and that is the fun or challenge of active managing your investment. when we first started with this, we practically reason with ourselves like a mad man is there a valid free cash flow or there isn't.

if you want to find something that others have not found yet. sometimes it is in these hard to understand stuff, that people are not willing to do the hardwork.

Investment is not binary. The analysis can be on-going from new interesting short listed stock to catalyst exhausted ones

Neither is execution binary. You can start with 0.1% for new stocks to build eventually to top holdings if one gets comfy and familiar with the company. Sizing and asset allocation is just as important as stock pick. A good stock pick at 0.1% sizing that has doubled is only good for cocktail talk

Mr Market never required us to be binary. Only analysts and our greed/fear are forced to be binary

(23-09-2014, 08:55 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Equity investment decisions are the easiest - its Binary - BUY (Stay Long) or Sell (Keep Avoiding).

Make yr decision just Nike... and cut out the noise...

BUY / SELL YMMV

GG

(24-09-2014, 07:38 AM)specuvestor Wrote: Investment is not binary. The analysis can be on-going from new interesting short listed stock to catalyst exhausted ones

Neither is execution binary. You can start with 0.1% for new stocks to build eventually to top holdings if one gets comfy and familiar with the company. Sizing and asset allocation is just as important as stock pick. A good stock pick at 0.1% sizing that has doubled is only good for cocktail talk

Mr Market never required us to be binary. Only analysts and our greed/fear are forced to be binary

(23-09-2014, 08:55 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Equity investment decisions are the easiest - its Binary - BUY (Stay Long) or Sell (Keep Avoiding).

Make yr decision just Nike... and cut out the noise...

BUY / SELL YMMV

GG

Most people, if not all, are just only good at talking or even posting good rules and disciplines here, but fails to follow strictly to what they think or write. They do not take action promptly, but words are just coming out from their big mouth.

They can have all 1001 theories, the most perfect analogy and no doubt, best investment minds of the centuries. But when it comes to the real action, all are boiled down to their hope, greed and fear. It distorts them. Then, they somehow miss the right time, the right moment to act quickly, and this is where they all fail badly. Moreover, they can't sit tight, and Emotions distorted their belief, their first stance on why they bought the stock in the first place.

So.... those with great theories and teachings, hope that you can spend more time on your own stock pickings, rather than posting useless all talks but no action articles here (and that said, it does includes my this posting here, I know it is a rubbish post, and I know surely it is a waste of my time to post this rubbish here anyway).

My story shall ends here.

(24-09-2014, 11:41 AM)kingpin9 Wrote: Most people, if not all, are just only good at talking or even posting good rules and disciplines here, but fails to follow strictly to what they think or write. They do not take action promptly, but words are just coming out from their big mouth.

They can have all 1001 theories, the most perfect analogy and no doubt, best investment minds of the centuries. But when it comes to the real action, all are boiled down to their hope, greed and fear. It distorts them. Then, they somehow miss the right time, the right moment to act quickly, and this is where they all fail badly. Moreover, they can't sit tight, and Emotions distorted their belief, their first stance on why they bought the stock in the first place.

So.... those with great theories and teachings, hope that you can spend more time on your own stock pickings, rather than posting useless all talks but no action articles here (and that said, it does includes my this posting here, I know it is a rubbish post, and I know surely it is a waste of my time to post this rubbish here anyway).

My story shall ends here.

We need both, talking and action. Talk only no action, is just a paper game. No talk but action only, is a waste of time. You never know what you are doing.

IMO, the right process is talking->action->review->refine the talk->action again, the cycle repeat...

(24-09-2014, 11:41 AM)kingpin9 Wrote:

(24-09-2014, 07:38 AM)specuvestor Wrote: Investment is not binary. The analysis can be on-going from new interesting short listed stock to catalyst exhausted ones

Neither is execution binary. You can start with 0.1% for new stocks to build eventually to top holdings if one gets comfy and familiar with the company. Sizing and asset allocation is just as important as stock pick. A good stock pick at 0.1% sizing that has doubled is only good for cocktail talk

Mr Market never required us to be binary. Only analysts and our greed/fear are forced to be binary

(23-09-2014, 08:55 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Equity investment decisions are the easiest - its Binary - BUY (Stay Long) or Sell (Keep Avoiding).

Make yr decision just Nike... and cut out the noise...

BUY / SELL YMMV

GG

Most people, if not all, are just only good at talking or even posting good rules and disciplines here, but fails to follow strictly to what they think or write. They do not take action promptly, but words are just coming out from their big mouth.

They can have all 1001 theories, the most perfect analogy and no doubt, best investment minds of the centuries. But when it comes to the real action, all are boiled down to their hope, greed and fear. It distorts them. Then, they somehow miss the right time, the right moment to act quickly, and this is where they all fail badly. Moreover, they can't sit tight, and Emotions distorted their belief, their first stance on why they bought the stock in the first place.

So.... those with great theories and teachings, hope that you can spend more time on your own stock pickings, rather than posting useless all talks but no action articles here (and that said, it does includes my this posting here, I know it is a rubbish post, and I know surely it is a waste of my time to post this rubbish here anyway).

My story shall ends here.

I walked the talk... I m amongst TOP 10 if I m not wrong by now...

Vested
GG