cyclone's portfolio

(03-09-2014, 10:10 PM)chialc88 Wrote: although I might sounds sarcastic but I am serious.
WB famous burger story.
if you are buying hamburger, do you want it's price to go up or down?

Everyday, I am wishing for my burger price to drop...and I have to be very patient given the current conditions.

Love Compassion


Earth day - save the world everyday.

I am having a totally different issue everyday. I have always more burgers worth buying everyday, but money not enough.

I am doing swapping instead i.e. replacing least valued stock in my portfolio, with a found better valued one from the market.

(03-09-2014, 09:50 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(03-09-2014, 06:11 PM)cyclone Wrote: Hi Shrivathsa,

I do not use XIRR to compute the return, instead I use NAV per unit method.
I try to compute at the end of each month if I'm free.

NAV per unit at the beginning of CY2014 was 1.297122.
NAV per unit at 2014/08/31 was 1.288124.
So it was still underwater.
There were some distributions during the period. All dividends received were plowed back into the "fund".
If we excluded the distributions, NAV per unit would be 1.432362.

NAV is lower with dividend included, and higher with dividend excluded? It means all dividends were re-invested at higher price, and remain "underwater", right?

Hi CityFarmer, this is how I calculate NAV per unit, not sure whether the methodology is correct or not.

SUPPOSE :

At the beginning of CY2014 :
Number of units = 30000

Cash = 7000
Stock A = 10000 x 0.6 = 6000
Stock B = 20000 x 0.4 = 8000
Stock C = 30000 x 0.3 = 9000

NAV = 7000 + 6000 + 8000 + 9000 = 30000
NAV per unit = 30000/30000 = 1

At the end of May 2014 :
Received dividend from Stock A = 10000 x 0.03 = 300
Received dividend form Stock B = 20000 x 0.02 = 400
Received dividend from Stock C = 30000 x 0.02 = 600
Total dividend received = 1300

Cash = 7000 + 1300 = 8300
Assume the stock price did not change.
NAV = 8300 + 6000 + 8000 + 9000 = 31300
NAV per unit = 31100/30000 = 1.04333

At the end of July 2014, we needed the money and distributed out 4000 from available cash to unitholders :
Cash = 8300 - 4000 = 4300
Assume the stock price did not change.
NAV = 4300 + 6000 + 8000 + 9000 = 27300
NAV per unit = 27300/30000 = 0.91

At the end of August 2014 :
Due the stock price changes
Cash = 4300
Stock A = 10000 x 0.71 = 7100
Stock B = 20000 x 0.39 = 7800
Stock C = 30000 x 0.35 = 10500

NAV = 4300 + 7100 + 7800 + 10500 = 29700
NAV per unit = 29700/30000 = 0.99

NAV per unit at the beginning of the year = 1, NAV at the end of August 2014 = 0.99, so it was still underwater.
If we exclude the distribution to unitholder of 4000, NAV would be 29700 + 4000 = 33700 and NAV per unit would be 1.12333

Hi Cyclone,

The reason I asked is because sometimes, we beat ourselves up, thinking we are doing very badly, when actually, we are doing better.

The converse is also true (But, very unlikely to find such people on VB, i think)

I have done up your xirr, using the above example, it is around 4.5%.

Attached is the file.

Cheers

Well, the methodology to derive NAV are
- Calculate NAV before transaction.
- Capital injection/withdrawal will result in increase/decrease of units, rather than NAV
- Sale/Buy transactions will result in change of NAV with same number of units
- Dividend is considered a sale transaction

Base on the methodology. It seems that the capital withdrawal of 4000, has reduced NAV, instead of total unit, which is not right.

(04-09-2014, 01:42 PM)cyclone Wrote: Hi CityFarmer, this is how I calculate NAV per unit, not sure whether the methodology is correct or not.

SUPPOSE :

At the beginning of CY2014 :
Number of units = 30000

Cash = 7000
Stock A = 10000 x 0.6 = 6000
Stock B = 20000 x 0.4 = 8000
Stock C = 30000 x 0.3 = 9000

NAV = 7000 + 6000 + 8000 + 9000 = 30000
NAV per unit = 30000/30000 = 1

At the end of May 2014 :
Received dividend from Stock A = 10000 x 0.03 = 300
Received dividend form Stock B = 20000 x 0.02 = 400
Received dividend from Stock C = 30000 x 0.02 = 600
Total dividend received = 1300

Cash = 7000 + 1300 = 8300
Assume the stock price did not change.
NAV = 8300 + 6000 + 8000 + 9000 = 31300
NAV per unit = 31100/30000 = 1.04333

At the end of July 2014, we needed the money and distributed out 4000 from available cash to unitholders :
Cash = 8300 - 4000 = 4300
Assume the stock price did not change.
NAV = 4300 + 6000 + 8000 + 9000 = 27300
NAV per unit = 27300/30000 = 0.91

At the end of August 2014 :
Due the stock price changes
Cash = 4300
Stock A = 10000 x 0.71 = 7100
Stock B = 20000 x 0.39 = 7800
Stock C = 30000 x 0.35 = 10500

NAV = 4300 + 7100 + 7800 + 10500 = 29700
NAV per unit = 29700/30000 = 0.99

NAV per unit at the beginning of the year = 1, NAV at the end of August 2014 = 0.99, so it was still underwater.
If we exclude the distribution to unitholder of 4000, NAV would be 29700 + 4000 = 33700 and NAV per unit would be 1.12333

I re-do the derivation, both with NAV and XIRR, for your reference. Comment in {}

At the beginning of CY2014 : {This is no issue}
Number of units = 30000
NAV per unit = 30000/30000 = 1

At the end of May 2014 : {This is no issue too}
Total dividend received = 1300

Cash = 7000 + 1300 = 8300
Assume the stock price did not change.
NAV = 8300 + 6000 + 8000 + 9000 = 31300
NAV per unit = 31300/30000 = 1.0433

At the end of July 2014, we needed the money and distributed out 4000 from available cash to unitholders : {This is the part that went wrong}
Assume the stock price did not change.
NAV per unit = 1.04333
NAV unit = 30000-(4000/1.04333) = 26166.13

At the end of August 2014 : {This part also wrong due to incorrect units}
Due the stock price changes
NAV = 4300 + 7100 + 7800 + 10500 = 29700
NAV per unit = 29700/26166.13 = 1.1351

The non-annualized return is 13.5%

XIRR working as follow
Jan, 1, 2014 -30000 {since dividend was kept as part of portfolio, no entry for XIRR)
Jul, 31, 2014 4000 {withdrawal of 4000}
Dec, 31, 2014 29700 {the date is fixed as end of the year, to calculate non-annualized return}

XIRR return number is 13.1%, pretty close.

Note: Shrivathsa's XIRR is incorrect, due to XIRR pitfalls which have been discussed previously in other thread.

(04-09-2014, 04:19 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: Well, the methodology to derive NAV are
- Calculate NAV before transaction.
- Capital injection/withdrawal will result in increase/decrease of units, rather than NAV
- Sale/Buy transactions will result in change of NAV with same number of units
- Dividend is considered a sale transaction

Base on the methodology. It seems that the capital withdrawal of 4000, has reduced NAV, instead of total unit, which is not right.

Divested Dyna-Mac Holdings in the early of September and used the proceeds to buy Frasers Centrepoint Limited because I like to story of it acquired Australand.
Australand was once dual-listed, then listed on Australia Exchange only, now it's even privatized.
For the month of September 2014, I received dividend from Singapore Reinsurance Corporation and Falcon Energy Group.

STI has been drifting down lately, as at the close of 1 Oct 2014, it was 3264.09.
As usual, Mr. Market's mood is ever-changing. We just need to think how to profit from the situation only, ignore others.

For cash, the position now is near-zero.

As at today, the holdings are :
1. AZTECH GROUP
2. CH OFFSHORE
3. CHUAN HUP HOLDINGS
4. CHINA MERCHANTS HOLDINGS (PACIFIC)
5. ELEC & ELTEK
6. ENGRO CORPORATION
7. ENVICTUS INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS
8. FALcon ENERGY GROUP
9. FRASERS CENTREPOINT LIMITED
10. FORTERRA TRUST
11. GLOBAL INVESTMENTS LIMITED
12. GP INDUSTRIES
13. HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL
14. HOTUNG INVESTMENT HOLDINGS
15. IFS CAPITAL
16. KARIN TECHNOLOGY HLDGS
17. KEPPEL T&T
18. LOW KENG HUAT (SINGAPORE)
19. LUXKING GROUP HOLDINGS
20. METRO HOLDINGS
21. MICRO-MECHANICS (HOLDINGS)
22. NERATELECOMMUNICATIONS
23. NEW TOYO
24. PCI
25. PEC
26. SAN TEH
27. SIA ENGINEERING
28. SINGAPORE REINSURANCE CORPORATION
29. St****** CORPORATION
30. TAI SIN ELECTRIC
31. UMS HODINGS
32. WILLAS-ARRAY ELECTRONICS

Last month I sold Global Investments Limited and Engro Corporation to fund the purchase of United Engineers. Just to speculate that TCC will take over UE. Jialat if the deal doesn't materialise, UE price will possibly be smashed down.

For the month of October 2014, I received dividends from Global Investments, New Toyo, UMS Holdings.

I also got out from CH Offshore and Falcon Energy Group. Waiting for a better price to reenter. The proceeds and dividends were used to buy China Merchants Holdings (Pacific) and Singapore Shipping Corporation.

Hmm, trader's mentality never dies out.

As usual, cash is negligible.

As of today, my portfolio are :
1. AZTECH GROUP
2. CHUAN HUP HOLDINGS
3. CHINA MERCHANTS HOLDINGS (PACIFIC)
4. ELEC & ELTEK
5. ENVICTUS INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS
6. FORTERRA TRUST
7. FRASERS CENTREPOINT LIMITED
8. GP INDUSTRIES
9. HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL
10.HOTUNG INVESTMENT HOLDINGS
11.IFS CAPITAL
12.KARIN TECHNOLOGY HLDGS
13.KEPPEL T&T
14.LOW KENG HUAT (SINGAPORE)
15.LUXKING GROUP HOLDINGS
16.METRO HOLDINGS
17.MICRO-MECHANICS (HOLDINGS)
18.NERATELECOMMUNICATIONS
19.NEW TOYO
20.PCI
21.PEC
22.SAN TEH
23.SIA ENGINEERING
24.SINGAPORE REINSURANCE CORPORATION
25.SINGAPORE SHIPPING CORP
26.St****** CORPORATION
27.TAI SIN ELECTRIC
28.UMS HODINGS
29.UNITED ENGINEERS
30.WILLAS-ARRAY ELECTRONICS

Last month I received dividends from PCI, AZTECH GROUP, MICRO-MECHANICS, CHUAN HUP, TAI SIN ELECTRIC, PEC AND SIA ENGINEERING. The dividends were reinvested as I sold some and also bought some.

Fully invested, cash is negligible.

As at today, the portfolio consists of the following counters :
1. AZTECH GROUP
2. CFM HOLDINGS
3. CHUAN HUP HOLDINGS
4. CHINA MERCHANTS HOLDINGS (PACIFIC)
5. ELEC & ELTEK
6. ENVICTUS INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS
7. FRASERS CENTREPOINT LIMITED
8. FRENCKEN GROUP
9. G.K. GOH
10.GLOBAL INVESTMENTS LIMITED
11.GP INDUSTRIES
12.HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL
13.HOTUNG INVESTMENT HOLDINGS
14.HUPSTEEL
15.IFS CAPITAL
16,KARIN TECHNOLOGY HLDGS
17.KEPPEL T&T
18.LOW KENG HUAT (SINGAPORE)
19.LUXKING GROUP HOLDINGS
20.METRO HOLDINGS
21.MICRO-MECHANICS (HOLDINGS)
22,NEW TOYO
23.PCI
24.PEC
25.SAN TEH
26.SIA ENGINEERING
27.SINGAPORE REINSURANCE CORPORATION
28.SINGAPORE SHIPPING CORP
29.SINGAPURA FINANCE
30.St****** CORPORATION
31.TAI SIN ELECTRIC
32.UMS HODINGS
33.WILLAS-ARRAY ELECTRONICS

33 stocks already, if 3.3% allocation each, u would have achieve a balanced, diversified portfolio,

Maybe throw in the STI ETF to round it up..

Thanks for sharing cyclone. Picked up metro holdings from your list.