Penguin International

(19-08-2014, 04:52 PM)Jacmar Wrote: Yes, selling is many times more difficult for me too than buying especially if you have to cut lost on a fundamentally sound stock. All my above comments is on generality and not specific to penguin. Don't know anything about Penguin and didn't bother to look into it as this kind of business besides being cyclical has no moat.

I am glad there is buddy sharing the same view.

I am not so sure that the Penguin is cyclical and without moat.

(vested)

Penguin is under value.

I am still holding it.

(27-08-2014, 10:14 AM)Harvest Time Wrote: Penguin is under value.

I am still holding it.

Hi Harvest Time,

In your opinion, how is penguin International under valued?

Thanks!

4Q 2013 net profit is $6.037m (before tax is 5.646m, tax credit of 0.573m)
1Q 2014 net profit is $7.031m (before tax is 6.64m, tax credit of 0.391m)
2Q 2014 net profit us $9.836m (before tax is $11.12m, tax expense is 1.284m)

Hence 2Q 2014 is a lot better if you compare net profit before tax

EPS for 1Q 2014 is 1.06 cents
EPS for 2Q 2014 is 1.49 cents.

(27-08-2014, 10:14 AM)Harvest Time Wrote: Penguin is under value.

I am still holding it.

Penguin is overvalued now.

I am not holding it.

No MOS and low yield despite good cash level. Once anything happens to earnings, share price will decline pretty fast too.

Looks like more of a sell than a hold or buy to me.

If you look at offshore companies, their PE ratio is higher than Penguin.

KS Investment hold 41.23375m shares


From annual report 2013
Note 2: Keppel Offshore & Marine Ltd, Keppel Corporation Limited and Temasek Holdings (Pte) Ltd are deemed to be
interested in the shares owned by KS Investments Pte Ltd by virtue of Section 7 of the Companies Act, Cap

http://investing.businessweek.com/resear...d=39419093


KS Investments Pte. Ltd. operates as an investment holding company. KS Investments Pte. Ltd. was formerly known as Wellzone Pte. Ltd. The company was founded in 2005 and is based in Singapore. KS Investments Pte. Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Keppel Corp. Ltd.

1) 1H 2014 EPS is 2.55 cents (approx. full year is 5.1 cents)

2) 2Q 2014 is 1.49 (assume the rest of the year is same as 2Q)

Then full EPS = 1.06 + 1.49 x 3 = 5.53 cents
So roughly PE is around 4.88 or 5.29 depending on method 1 or 2 EPS base on current price of 27 cents.

Hence I am still holding on to Penguin as I feel that PE 5 is undervalue.

(27-08-2014, 10:53 AM)Harvest Time Wrote: 1) 1H 2014 EPS is 2.55 cents (approx. full year is 5.1 cents)

2) 2Q 2014 is 1.49 (assume the rest of the year is same as 2Q)

Then full EPS = 1.06 + 1.49 x 3 = 5.53 cents
So roughly PE is around 4.88 or 5.29 depending on method 1 or 2 EPS base on current price of 27 cents.

Hence I am still holding on to Penguin as I feel that PE 5 is undervalue.

The low and attractive PE looks good but holding based on just one undervalued metric such as PE is risky at best. This is one metric I give the least weight to in my valuations as it can fluctuate both ways very quickly. For small company, things like expansion capex, order cancellation and costs can cause earnings drop significantly and PE can double or triple quite fast.

congrats on your investment in this counter though

(27-08-2014, 11:47 AM)BlueKelah Wrote: The low and attractive PE looks good but holding based on just one undervalued metric such as PE is risky at best. This is one metric I give the least weight to in my valuations as it can fluctuate both ways very quickly. For small company, things like expansion capex, order cancellation and costs can cause earnings drop significantly and PE can double or triple quite fast.

What is a better way to do valuation? DCF?

(27-08-2014, 07:24 PM)wahkao Wrote:

(27-08-2014, 11:47 AM)BlueKelah Wrote: The low and attractive PE looks good but holding based on just one undervalued metric such as PE is risky at best. This is one metric I give the least weight to in my valuations as it can fluctuate both ways very quickly. For small company, things like expansion capex, order cancellation and costs can cause earnings drop significantly and PE can double or triple quite fast.

What is a better way to do valuation? DCF?

First of all, there is no 'better' or 'best way' in investment or valuation. such a question is just asking for a debate to happen between different schools of thought.

Old school Benjamin graham(his picture is up there) style based valuation to find net-nets is a good way.

But this is a thread for this stock, and "better ways" of valuation should be discussed in "Discussions on Value Investing"