China Property Market

Watch the clip - frankly doesn't tell me anything that I dunno while western media did report what they have seen on the grounds.

Anyway, maybe you may want to explain the relentless wave of mega chinese developers making seemingly never ending investments overseas and the most recent profit warnings by highly regarded development Shui On's profit warning before making a resolute statement on the state of affairs in China.

Personally, I appreciate all views from any sources as it is always my principles to learn from everyone and eventually form an judgement that suits my personal risks profile.

To me China is always a market when playing fields are never levelled - head or tail they will always win. Hence it is very important to embrace all inputs to form better view of what is happening within. Apart from very exceptional investment ideas, I will always be very careful with anything to do with China as their way of life since cultural revolution is very different from the Singapore way of life.

GG

(24-08-2014, 04:00 AM)VIChris Wrote: I seriously don't understand why the western medias always love to exaggerate and "magnified" China property problem? Is there a big bubble going to burst?

At least Aljazeera provide a more neutral reporting, which is inline with what I've read articles interviewing a few well known property magnate who have insight into China property.

Chinese Property Correction

It is a big problem but I believe that the central govt can handle it.
They have a lot of ammunition on their hands.

What kind of ammunition?
1. FX reserve (mainly from trade surplus with US) - 3.3 trillion USD
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exc...c_of_China]
2. saving deposit
3. Cut mortgage rate, etc

(24-08-2014, 04:00 AM)VIChris Wrote: I seriously don't understand why the western medias always love to exaggerate and "magnified" China property problem? Is there a big bubble going to burst?

At least Aljazeera provide a more neutral reporting, which is inline with what I've read articles interviewing a few well known property magnate who have insight into China property.

Chinese Property Correction

(24-08-2014, 06:17 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: Watch the clip - frankly doesn't tell me anything that I dunno while western media did report what they have seen on the grounds.

Anyway, maybe you may want to explain the relentless wave of mega chinese developers making seemingly never ending investments overseas and the most recent profit warnings by highly regarded development Shui On's profit warning before making a resolute statement on the state of affairs in China.

Personally, I appreciate all views from any sources as it is always my principles to learn from everyone and eventually form an judgement that suits my personal risks profile.

To me China is always a market when playing fields are never levelled - head or tail they will always win. Hence it is very important to embrace all inputs to form better view of what is happening within. Apart from very exceptional investment ideas, I will always be very careful with anything to do with China as their way of life since cultural revolution is very different from the Singapore way of life.

GG

(24-08-2014, 04:00 AM)VIChris Wrote: I seriously don't understand why the western medias always love to exaggerate and "magnified" China property problem? Is there a big bubble going to burst?

At least Aljazeera provide a more neutral reporting, which is inline with what I've read articles interviewing a few well known property magnate who have insight into China property.

Chinese Property Correction

I believe, all developers will want to maximize their profit and expand their portfolio globally, except for a few who might not be as successful as their peers in their home ground and wanted to try their luck overseas.

As far as I know, the problem lies with tier 2, 3, etc which is overbuilt.
Tier 1 is under supply but problem is most house is priced beyond masses. Exisitng new China government is improving/correcting the housing supply issues made by the former leadership.

Well, let the experts speaks for the situation in China:

Do check out the video at 1.50s interviewing Liew Mun Leong, ex CEO of Capitaland. Changi Airport Growth

Kepland and Soho China, 2 property giant said separately this week that they are looking for acquisition opportunities in the China market. They are the market veterans in China markets.
China Buzzards Look For Property Deals

Dude tier 1 is also overbuilt and on its way down now, if you have read gg's other postings.

Not a simple bubble there, lots of it is corruption on a mass scale.

Dun care what kepland or capland says, bearish until lee ka shing's back from europe ;-)

via Xperia Z1 with Android 4.4.4 running tapatalk.

(24-08-2014, 05:01 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: Dude tier 1 is also overbuilt and on its way down now, if you have read gg's other postings.

Not a simple bubble there, lots of it is corruption on a mass scale.

Dun care what kepland or capland says, bearish until lee ka shing's back from europe ;-)

via Xperia Z1 with Android 4.4.4 running tapatalk.

I believe it is selective cities in trouble.
Kepland and Capitaland don't know what they are committing?
Soho China is starting to look for distress properties now. Can they all be very wrong?

Lee ka shing's liquidation of some of his asset in China as compared to his total China asset is comparatively small.

Well, we just contribute our views.

Yes, Li Ka Shing said he is liquidating. But do u know what he is actually liquidating and what he is not?

(24-08-2014, 05:27 PM)VIChris Wrote:

(24-08-2014, 05:01 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: Dude tier 1 is also overbuilt and on its way down now, if you have read gg's other postings.

Not a simple bubble there, lots of it is corruption on a mass scale.

Dun care what kepland or capland says, bearish until lee ka shing's back from europe ;-)

via Xperia Z1 with Android 4.4.4 running tapatalk.

I believe it is selective cities in trouble.
Kepland and Capitaland don't know what they are committing?
Soho China is starting to look for distress properties now. Can they all be very wrong?

Lee ka shing's liquidation of some of his asset in China as compared to his total China asset is comparatively small.

Well, we just contribute our views.

(24-08-2014, 05:52 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: Yes, Li Ka Shing said he is liquidating. But do u know what he is actually liquidating and what he is not?

(24-08-2014, 05:27 PM)VIChris Wrote:

(24-08-2014, 05:01 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: Dude tier 1 is also overbuilt and on its way down now, if you have read gg's other postings.

Not a simple bubble there, lots of it is corruption on a mass scale.

Dun care what kepland or capland says, bearish until lee ka shing's back from europe ;-)

via Xperia Z1 with Android 4.4.4 running tapatalk.

I believe it is selective cities in trouble.
Kepland and Capitaland don't know what they are committing?
Soho China is starting to look for distress properties now. Can they all be very wrong?

Lee ka shing's liquidation of some of his asset in China as compared to his total China asset is comparatively small.

Well, we just contribute our views.

I'm not going to dwell into a debate on Lee ka shing's liquidation of assets in China. Why not you go find out. I've already my homework done.

Thanks!

(24-08-2014, 05:27 PM)VIChris Wrote:

(24-08-2014, 05:01 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: Dude tier 1 is also overbuilt and on its way down now, if you have read gg's other postings.

Not a simple bubble there, lots of it is corruption on a mass scale.

Dun care what kepland or capland says, bearish until lee ka shing's back from europe ;-)

via Xperia Z1 with Android 4.4.4 running tapatalk.

I believe it is selective cities in trouble.
Kepland and Capitaland don't know what they are committing?
Soho China is starting to look for distress properties now. Can they all be very wrong?

Lee ka shing's liquidation of some of his asset in China as compared to his total China asset is comparatively small.

Well, we just contribute our views.

Yes, we can all contribute. Perhaps you may not have seen this news in forbes.com about Lee Ka Shing liquidating his China assets? That's 2.9 billion of his 31 billion estimated wealth, roughly 10% of his total worth. Not sure what his total china assets are but that sounds like pretty much almost all of the big property ones?

Even if he has some residual interest in China, it does sound like a major shareholder is trying to sell as much of his holdings as possible. Given his intimate knowledge of the market there, I would think he has "voted" with his selling move.

'China's Warren Buffett' Selling Off His China Assets

[Li, reputed to be the richest man in Asia, and his family have been on a selling spree in Mainland China since last August. During that time, “Superman,” his nickname because of an almost-infallible sense of market timing, has unloaded Guangzhou’s Metropolitan Plaza, Shanghai’s Oriental Financial Center, and Nanjing’s International Financial Center. With Richard’s disposal of Beijing’s Pacific Century Place, the Li family has reportedly sold about $2.9 billion of Chinese property in less than a year.]

Read more here
===================================================
You believe it is selective cities in trouble? "Out of 70 major Chinese cities, 64 saw month-on-month price declines for new homes in July, compared with 55 in June" this is from the National Bureau of Statistics in china.

Actually it is the other way round, selective cities which are not in trouble, YET.

Those 64 in trouble now include Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. down 1, 1.2, 1.3% each for the first time since 2012.
Read more here...

Yes, they can all be very wrong. There is no point buying cheap but empty china property if there is no rental or cash flow to be obtained.

The government there is no longer supporting the corruption rife property industry, shifting now to maintain its GDP via infrastructure works. Question is will the farmers and factory workers need to use the latest high speed trains and air travel?

Aiya, Temasek has a long term (or wrong term) strategic direction... so far they are the best contrarian indicator:

i) buy NOL at the peak of the cycle when Ow is selling like crazy
ii) buy global banks just before GFC
iii) buy Olam until kanna Muddy Waters and have to buyout
iv) buy China banks when US long term investors are selling
v) make 1.5% returns last year when value buddies make easily more than that...
vi) capland lelong Australand when Aussie prop mkt start to heat up
vii) now they also very gungho on Chinese tech companies

All these are facts... I just do what they don't do... as simple as that...

You want to long China now... my best pick... cash generator defensive no-brainer ERP business China Merchant Pacific. One day, may be Temasek may want to take a stake in a strategic domestic industry... wah then will be in dreamland.

China is a damn tough place, head and tails they win... u just see how profitable foreigners got ripped off - recently car makers, long time ago Suzhou Ind Park... If I want to play China - best deal go with the red army... communist controlled SOEs.

GG

(24-08-2014, 06:59 PM)BlueKelah Wrote:

(24-08-2014, 05:27 PM)VIChris Wrote:

(24-08-2014, 05:01 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: Dude tier 1 is also overbuilt and on its way down now, if you have read gg's other postings.

Not a simple bubble there, lots of it is corruption on a mass scale.

Dun care what kepland or capland says, bearish until lee ka shing's back from europe ;-)

via Xperia Z1 with Android 4.4.4 running tapatalk.

I believe it is selective cities in trouble.
Kepland and Capitaland don't know what they are committing?
Soho China is starting to look for distress properties now. Can they all be very wrong?

Lee ka shing's liquidation of some of his asset in China as compared to his total China asset is comparatively small.

Well, we just contribute our views.

Yes, we can all contribute. Perhaps you may not have seen this news in forbes.com about Lee Ka Shing liquidating his China assets? That's 2.9 billion of his 31 billion estimated wealth, roughly 10% of his total worth. Not sure what his total china assets are but that sounds like pretty much almost all of the big property ones?

Even if he has some residual interest in China, it does sound like a major shareholder is trying to sell as much of his holdings as possible. Given his intimate knowledge of the market there, I would think he has "voted" with his selling move.

'China's Warren Buffett' Selling Off His China Assets

[Li, reputed to be the richest man in Asia, and his family have been on a selling spree in Mainland China since last August. During that time, “Superman,” his nickname because of an almost-infallible sense of market timing, has unloaded Guangzhou’s Metropolitan Plaza, Shanghai’s Oriental Financial Center, and Nanjing’s International Financial Center. With Richard’s disposal of Beijing’s Pacific Century Place, the Li family has reportedly sold about $2.9 billion of Chinese property in less than a year.]

Read more here
===================================================
You believe it is selective cities in trouble? "Out of 70 major Chinese cities, 64 saw month-on-month price declines for new homes in July, compared with 55 in June" this is from the National Bureau of Statistics in china.

Actually it is the other way round, selective cities which are not in trouble, YET.

Those 64 in trouble now include Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. down 1, 1.2, 1.3% each for the first time since 2012.
Read more here...

Yes, they can all be very wrong. There is no point buying cheap but empty china property if there is no rental or cash flow to be obtained.

The government there is no longer supporting the corruption rife property industry, shifting now to maintain its GDP via infrastructure works. Question is will the farmers and factory workers need to use the latest high speed trains and air travel?

Thanks, I', aware of the information you shared.
LOL, I have no comment on Temasek performance, but Kepland and Capitaland performance so far is quite impressive. Their past CAGR is about >20%.
Management with Property experience of over >10++yrs.

Are they incompetent? Suggest you might want to take a look at Soho China, Kepland and Capitaland past 2 quarters China sales performance. It will give some sensing of the market situations. Of course property appreciation in China might be slow down or stagnant in tier 1 cities and depreciate in other tiers cities, but saying that it will crash, I doubt so.

As for 李嘉诚, strategy, this show might give you some idea.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W7tTvAPh364

Cheers!