Penguin International

(08-08-2014, 10:17 AM)dydx Wrote: What is the current fair value of Penguin's entire business?

Assuming full year eps at $0.05. I think it should be $0.35.

(08-08-2014, 10:17 AM)dydx Wrote: What is the current fair value of Penguin's entire business?

The fair value seems a moving target, with every quarterly report

I would seriously consider selling my stake, with PE>=20 now. Any offer?

(08-08-2014, 11:30 AM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(08-08-2014, 10:17 AM)dydx Wrote: What is the current fair value of Penguin's entire business?

The fair value seems a moving target, with every quarterly report

I would seriously consider selling my stake, with PE>=20 now. Any offer?

Mr Moderator, I just noted your 16 words of golden advice with regard to trade and investment. It covers almost everything taught in MBA.

(08-08-2014, 11:37 AM)xlandjy Wrote:

(08-08-2014, 11:30 AM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(08-08-2014, 10:17 AM)dydx Wrote: What is the current fair value of Penguin's entire business?

The fair value seems a moving target, with every quarterly report

I would seriously consider selling my stake, with PE>=20 now. Any offer?

Mr Moderator, I just noted your 16 words of golden advice with regard to trade and investment. It covers almost everything taught in MBA.

The advice survived the test of time, not in decades by Mr. Warren Buffett, but also in thousands of years.

(08-08-2014, 11:30 AM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(08-08-2014, 10:17 AM)dydx Wrote: What is the current fair value of Penguin's entire business?

The fair value seems a moving target, with every quarterly report

I would seriously consider selling my stake, with PE>=20 now. Any offer?

I think you might be looking at the 1H EPS of 2.56 cents to arrive at PE of 20. Assuming full year EPS of 5 cents, which means 2H profit is lower than 1H, its PE is only 5 nia.

To determine the fair value of Penguin's entire business, I guess we have to look into its 4 components:

(1) the shipyard operations under Penguin Shipyard International - with 2 yards, 1 each in Singapore and Batam - which are presently enjoying strong demand for its crew boats of own design, therefore giving rise to a strong backlog and high/rising profitability based on an efficient manufacturing situation. The value of Penguin's growing product range - including into the bigger Flex-50 crew boats, the Flex Fighter and the Flex Ferry - should not be under-estimated. Backed by a strong order backlog, would this part of the business fetch at least $100.0m - IMHO, a very conservative estimate!! - in a trade sale?

(2) the crew boat charter fleet under Pelican Offshore Services - now with a fleet of at least 12 crew boats ranging from 36m to 50m available for charter in the regional market, this business is also enjoying increasing demand and likely also increasing charter rates. Assuming just an average CMV of $7.0m per crew boat, would Penguin's present fleet of crew boats fetch a minimum of $84.0m?

(3) the fleet of 10 passenger ferries now mostly deployed on a long-term contract with SAF to ferry soldiers in-and-fro SAF Ferry Terminal at Changi Point to Pulau Tekong - while this piece of business may not be very profitable, it should be a nice cash cow. Assuming just an average CMV of $1.0m per ferry, would Penguin's present fleet of passenger ferries fetch a minimum of $10.0m?

(4) Penguin's latest (as at 30Jun14) net cash reserve of approx. $45.0m.

A summation of the above 4 components would give a total of $239.0m, which will translate to a FV estimate of $0.362/share based on the latest 660.5m outstanding issue shares. Is this too far fetched?

(08-08-2014, 12:29 PM)dydx Wrote: To determine the fair value of Penguin's entire business, I guess we have to look into its 4 components:

(1) the shipyard operations under Penguin Shipyard International - with 2 yards, 1 each in Singapore and Batam - which are presently enjoying strong demand for its crew boats of own design, therefore giving rise to a strong backlog and high/rising profitability based on an efficient manufacturing situation. The value of Penguin's growing product range - including into the bigger Flex-50 crew boats, the Flex Fighter and the Flex Ferry - should not be under-estimated. Backed by a strong order backlog, would this part of the business fetch at least $100.0m - IMHO, a very conservative estimate!! - in a trade sale?

(2) the crew boat charter fleet under Pelican Offshore Services - now with a fleet of at least 12 crew boats ranging from 36m to 50m available for charter in the regional market, this business is also enjoying increasing demand and likely also increasing charter rates. Assuming just an average CMV of $7.0m per crew boat, would Penguin's present fleet of crew boats fetch a minimum of $84.0m?

(3) the fleet of 10 passenger ferries now mostly deployed on a long-term contract with SAF to ferry soldiers in-and-fro SAF Ferry Terminal at Changi Point to Pulau Tekong - while this piece of business may not be very profitable, it should be a nice cash cow. Assuming just an average CMV of $1.0m per ferry, would Penguin's present fleet of passenger ferries fetch a minimum of $10.0m?

(4) Penguin's latest (as at 30Jun14) net cash reserve of approx. $45.0m.

A summation of the above 4 components would give a total of $239.0m, which will translate to a FV estimate of $0.362/share based on the latest 660.5m outstanding issue shares. Is this too far fetched?

Hi everyone,

This is my first post and I'm also new to investing (Started work slightly more than a year ago). I have taken a strong interest in this counter due to its strong balance sheet, debt-free and solid business model, and I have also been happily vested since 0.20. I hope I'm not too late to this party.

While the entire market is seeing red today, Penguin is one of the rare counters that managed to fly into the green zone. I expected a higher push in price today, but perhaps it's due to the negative market outlook around it. When the mini-correction is over, I hope to see this bird flying even higher.

As an earlier poster has mentioned, the fair value of this counter is ever-changing. Conservatively, if the next 2 quarters managed to achieve an average of 7 mil net profit, and using a conservative P/E of 7, I calculate a fair value to be above 0.30. It'll probably be my first exit point. But I'll definitely continue to keep as I believe there is more growth.

A quick question, FCF was negative this quarter. Dropped from 51 mil to around 40 mil. I noticed a huge chunk of the decrease was attributed to Trade Receivables. Is this a sign of more profits to come, or is this already factored into reported income?

Thanks and I hope to enjoy future discussions on this counter.

(08-08-2014, 11:46 AM)Ben Wrote:

(08-08-2014, 11:30 AM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(08-08-2014, 10:17 AM)dydx Wrote: What is the current fair value of Penguin's entire business?

The fair value seems a moving target, with every quarterly report

I would seriously consider selling my stake, with PE>=20 now. Any offer?

I think you might be looking at the 1H EPS of 2.56 cents to arrive at PE of 20. Assuming full year EPS of 5 cents, which means 2H profit is lower than 1H, its PE is only 5 nia.

You might notice that the historical PE of 20 isn't the fair value, but the price that I am willing to let go NOW.

I am yet to update with the latest result, base on last-done valuation, the fair value was between 33-43 cents.

(vested)

(08-08-2014, 01:14 PM)LocalOptimal Wrote: Hi everyone,

This is my first post and I'm also new to investing (Started work slightly more than a year ago). I have taken a strong interest in this counter due to its strong balance sheet, debt-free and solid business model, and I have also been happily vested since 0.20. I hope I'm not too late to this party.

While the entire market is seeing red today, Penguin is one of the rare counters that managed to fly into the green zone. I expected a higher push in price today, but perhaps it's due to the negative market outlook around it. When the mini-correction is over, I hope to see this bird flying even higher.

As an earlier poster has mentioned, the fair value of this counter is ever-changing. Conservatively, if the next 2 quarters managed to achieve an average of 7 mil net profit, and using a conservative P/E of 7, I calculate a fair value to be above 0.30. It'll probably be my first exit point. But I'll definitely continue to keep as I believe there is more growth.

A quick question, FCF was negative this quarter. Dropped from 51 mil to around 40 mil. I noticed a huge chunk of the decrease was attributed to Trade Receivables. Is this a sign of more profits to come, or is this already factored into reported income?

Thanks and I hope to enjoy future discussions on this counter.

Receivable mean billed, but not paid yet. Yes, it was already included into income statement. You can refer to annual report, revenue section to know the way the revenue was recognized.

Wish you all the best on your VB experience.

If Penguin have (suitor) offer, it will trade higher than 43 cents, probably around 50 cents.
It is possible some funds are buying Penguin. Fair value is a lot higher than current price.