Chip Eng Seng

wow alex central psf so x..also left 2, cannot believe siah

Based on latest Q2 results, half yearly net profit of $40mil was a 260% jump against last FY $11mil.

But the most delicious part is yet to come. The Group’s wholly-owned development projects, Belvia and Alexandra Central, are scheduled for completion in 3Q2014 and 4Q2014 respectively. Revenues and profits of both development projects will be recognized upon completion.

These 2 projects are expected to contribute to EPS of about 25 cents to 30 cents based on the recognition upon completion method.

So full year EPS will be at least 31 cents to 35 cents or 200% jump from last FY.

In short, there is Clear Profit Visibility for last 2 quarters of FY14 plus whole of FY15 as well.

Outside Singapore, the Group will continue to focus on getting its two projects in Melbourne (Doncaster and Victoria Street) ready for launch.

a. The Group intends to launch its residential development in Doncaster before the end of this year. The development will comprise approximately 105 townhouses and 72 low rise apartments.
b. With regards to Tower Melbourne, there are issues pertaining to demolition works. The Group expects a delay in the completion of Tower Melbourne due to ongoing protracted proceedings with
the adjoining owner as to what constitutes adequate protection work over the adjoining property.

CES has "transferred" its business risk to the buyers and the banks.

Those who bought at the height of the commercial retail craze would have to spend the rest of their life paying off their debt or else bank will come after them.
(i.e. none of CES' business anymore)

(06-08-2014, 06:23 PM)pianist Wrote: wow alex central psf so x..also left 2, cannot believe siah

Developers like CES would LOVE a Planning Minister like Mr Matthew Guy.
CES' MEGA Project (residential + retail) at Carlton (Victoria Street) is now before approval by Matthew Guy

https://urbanmelbourne.info/planning/201...ria-street
Extracted out the relevant portion below:-

" A quirk in events sees City of Melbourne currently processing another application for the site in question. Last week saw the submission of an application seeking consent of "Building and works for a display suite/sales office and proposed permit for internally illuminated signage."

It seems that while City of Melbourne have objected to the proposal, developer CEL is eager to commence marketing the tower if and (more than likely) when final approval is granted by Planning Minister Matthew Guy. "


It seems that CES is already assuming that the Planning Minister is likely to approve, despite all the resistance from the staff at City Council . This project will bring in at least $100mil SGD in net profit based on conservative assumptions.

(06-08-2014, 07:23 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: Based on latest Q2 results, half yearly net profit of $40mil was a 260% jump against last FY $11mil.

But the most delicious part is yet to come. The Group’s wholly-owned development projects, Belvia and Alexandra Central, are scheduled for completion in 3Q2014 and 4Q2014 respectively. Revenues and profits of both development projects will be recognized upon completion.

These 2 projects are expected to contribute to EPS of about 25 cents to 30 cents based on the recognition upon completion method.

So full year EPS will be at least 31 cents to 35 cents or 200% jump from last FY.

In short, there is Clear Profit Visibility for last 2 quarters of FY14 plus whole of FY15 as well.

Outside Singapore, the Group will continue to focus on getting its two projects in Melbourne (Doncaster and Victoria Street) ready for launch.

a. The Group intends to launch its residential development in Doncaster before the end of this year. The development will comprise approximately 105 townhouses and 72 low rise apartments.
b. With regards to Tower Melbourne, there are issues pertaining to demolition works. The Group expects a delay in the completion of Tower Melbourne due to ongoing protracted proceedings with
the adjoining owner as to what constitutes adequate protection work over the adjoining property.

with an estimated full year EPS of 31 cents to 35 cents, i am hoping that chip eng seng can declare a special dividend of 4 cents next year. Combined with the usual dividend of 4 cents, that gives a yield of close to 10% at today's price.

If the hotel at alexandra central is successfully sold, that's the best!

CES will have a higher P/E if it keeps its hotel to milk the recurring income

(06-08-2014, 11:49 PM)safetyfirst Wrote:

(06-08-2014, 07:23 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: Based on latest Q2 results, half yearly net profit of $40mil was a 260% jump against last FY $11mil.

But the most delicious part is yet to come. The Group’s wholly-owned development projects, Belvia and Alexandra Central, are scheduled for completion in 3Q2014 and 4Q2014 respectively. Revenues and profits of both development projects will be recognized upon completion.

These 2 projects are expected to contribute to EPS of about 25 cents to 30 cents based on the recognition upon completion method.

So full year EPS will be at least 31 cents to 35 cents or 200% jump from last FY.

In short, there is Clear Profit Visibility for last 2 quarters of FY14 plus whole of FY15 as well.

Outside Singapore, the Group will continue to focus on getting its two projects in Melbourne (Doncaster and Victoria Street) ready for launch.

a. The Group intends to launch its residential development in Doncaster before the end of this year. The development will comprise approximately 105 townhouses and 72 low rise apartments.
b. With regards to Tower Melbourne, there are issues pertaining to demolition works. The Group expects a delay in the completion of Tower Melbourne due to ongoing protracted proceedings with
the adjoining owner as to what constitutes adequate protection work over the adjoining property.

with an estimated full year EPS of 31 cents to 35 cents, i am hoping that chip eng seng can declare a special dividend of 4 cents next year. Combined with the usual dividend of 4 cents, that gives a yield of close to 10% at today's price.

If the hotel at alexandra central is successfully sold, that's the best!

What is the chance that CES' project at Carlton (net profit easily worth >$100mil SGD) will get rejected, going by the "project approving history" of Matthew Guy?

I would put it at 5% based on his "approving history".

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/planni...2gb1x.html


Planning Minister Matthew Guy has been dubbed ''Mr Skyscraper'' after approving 20 high-rise developments for inner Melbourne and rejecting just one since taking on the portfolio about two years ago.

Mr Guy announced on Monday that he had approved plans for the tallest tower in the southern hemisphere - Australia 108 - which will stand at 388 metres and be 90 metres higher than Eureka Tower.

His decision to approve the Fender Katsalidis-designed apartment project on Southbank Boulevard will upset critics of the plan, including Melbourne lord mayor Robert Doyle, who argued it would cast a shadow over the Shrine of Remembrance.

The latest permit caps 19 other approvals Mr Guy has issued for tower projects in the Melbourne CBD and inner suburbs that range from 19 to 71 storeys high, since the Coalition won the 2010 election. He has also rezoned swaths of land at Fishermans Bend, Footscray and North Melbourne for high-rise development.

RMIT University planning professor Michael Buxton said the minister should be called ''Mr Skyscraper'' because he was single-handedly changing the skyline of Melbourne.

''Anything goes in Melbourne as far as high rise is concerned, there are no rules,'' he said. ''Matthew Guy is sending the signal to the international development community that they can build anything they want.''

Professor Buxton said Melbourne's economy was based on its liveability, but parts of the city would become ''unliveable'' because of the wind, shade, traffic and alienating scale that comes with towers.

''It's a terrible legacy of mess he's going to leave when he moves on as minister. He will have changed the shape of Melbourne forever and how it functions.''

Mr Guy responded in a statement: ''The Victorian Coalition government is facilitating jobs and investment through approving Australia 108, while taking high-rise development pressures off quiet neighbourhood streets.''

He had earlier announced the approval on Twitter, saying there was no objection from the shrine's trustees: ''Australia 108 is a $600m investment, hundreds of jobs. Takes high density pressures off existing suburbs and out of suburbs.''

During his time as minster, Mr Guy has stepped in to stop one tower proposal from going ahead.

His maiden intervention as planning minister was to impose height controls near the Shrine of Remembrance that stopped an 88-metre apartment tower at 35 Albert Road from being approved at VCAT the following week. The development would have blocked views to the bay from an existing apartment tower in which some of Melbourne's richest businessmen, active Liberal Party supporters, MP Andrea Coote and former Howard minister Peter Reith live.

A quick check with IR of CES has indicated that CES is not aware of any issue relating to the Carlton project. This seems to be quite different from what we heard from the media.

Probably, the media had "blown up" the issue of City council opposing the project (1037 apartments + 2254 SQM of retail) due to the shadowing issue.

Let's not speculate for now, and wait for formal announcement from CES


******

https://urbanmelbourne.info/planning/201...ria-street

Revolving door

A quirk in events sees City of Melbourne currently processing another application for the site in question. Last week saw the submission of an application seeking consent of "Building and works for a display suite/sales office and proposed permit for internally illuminated signage."

It seems that while City of Melbourne have objected to the proposal, developer CEL is eager to commence marketing the tower if and (more than likely) when final approval is granted by Planning Minister Matthew Guy.

(02-08-2014, 07:41 AM)BlueKelah Wrote: Skyscraper faces tall order over Melbourne City Council's shadowing decree on special seven
July 31, 2014
A 77-storey silver skyscraper planned for Carlton is likely to be opposed by Melbourne City Council because of a little-known decree in its planning scheme.
There are seven public spaces in the city considered to be so special that they cannot be overshadowed by new high-rises.
They are the north bank of the Yarra River, Federation Square, City Square, Queensbridge Square, St Paul’s square and the State Library of Victoria forecourt. The south bank of the Yarra is also is also specially named in the planning scheme as being protected from overshadowing from the CBD and Docklands.
Next week one of these rules will come into play when the city council considers whether to support the construction of a 236-metre high-rise on the corner of Victoria and Bouverie streets, former home of the Carlton and United Breweries.

The tower would overshadow the state library forecourt, located about half a kilometre away. According to council’s 3D computer modelling the first shadow would creep into the square at exactly 1.56pm on June 22.
Council planning staff say this is an instant deal breaker.
“Notwithstanding the many other merits of this proposal, the development cannot be supported in its current form on that basis of this issue alone,” they wrote in a report submitted to councillors.
“In addition to the shadowing of the state library forecourt, the proposed tower will also cast shadows on Victoria Street, Swanston Street and Elizabeth Street to La Trobe Street.”

Read more Here

For investors to decide impact on CES. Councils are a pain when developing in Australian CBD.

Fundamentals wise I still think CES has good fundamentals.

To be a value investor, I don't think it would pay to be fickle-minded especially after doing all the research and buying a stock for cheap. I will try to be humored by fickle minded posts in the future as they don't seem to be of much VALUE(pun intended) to members reading and deciding on their investments.

Another report from Phillips. Enjoy

1. Glad that they did not use $0.5mil per key for the 4-star hotel in this report. Nonetheless, $0.82mil per key might still be on the low side, which was why it was rejected by management.
Better to wait for some "PRC investment company" to secure a better rate Probably $0.9mil might be a fairer reflection (IMHO).

2. Good that they did not factor in any of the overseas development into their current derivation of RNAV ~$1.50.
Of course, if everything is factored in, RNAV is well beyond ~$2.00

3. Good that the forecast of the recurring income is on the very conservative side. My estimate of recurring income is ~$20mil per year

4. Dividend of 4 cents will be very comfortable and should be sustainable over a LONG TERM. In fact, 5 to 6 cents dividend should also be fine.

(12-08-2014, 06:24 PM)swj80 Wrote: Another report from Phillips. Enjoy