Sheng Siong Group

(28-07-2014, 06:01 PM)wahkao Wrote:

(24-07-2014, 10:21 AM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(24-07-2014, 10:00 AM)Ben Wrote: I have been sceptical on SS since day 1, and time and again it has proven me wrong. Congrats to those vested!

I was hesitated to participate during its IPO, even after positive result from DD. It is the only IPO I regretted to-date.

To make sure I didn't miss it again, I decided to invest substantially, when the share price moved below 60 cents, with PE approx 20. The higher PE is compensated by an anticipated catalyst of profit hike mainly due to extended working hours and the online store.

I hope I am right and it is sustainable, and so far it is proven so.

(vested)

PE of 20 doesnt seem like much value......
its overpaying for future profits

how much you pay for PE is an investors appreciation about the business, the moat and how good consistent growth can be sustained and for how long. a PE of 20 isnt that expensive if for the next 10 years it grows at 10% per annum. 5 years in you PE now would look closer to 10 times. another factor is that, would we save on PE to buy a cheaper and inferior business.

In that context, a broad market PE 20 can be over valued historically but may not be so on individual stock.

(29-07-2014, 07:46 AM)Drizzt Wrote: how much you pay for PE is an investors appreciation about the business, the moat and how good consistent growth can be sustained and for how long. a PE of 20 isnt that expensive if for the next 10 years it grows at 10% per annum. 5 years in you PE now would look closer to 10 times. another factor is that, would we save on PE to buy a cheaper and inferior business.

Exactly, to further the growth argument with numbers.

All else being equal, a 20% grower selling at PE 20 (company A), is a much better buy than a 10% grower at PE 10 (company B)

If the earning is $1 at base year for both, which means the prices are, company A $20 (PE 20), and company B $10 (PE 10). If the growth rates sustain for 5 years, and PEs remain the same, Company A's price is close to $50, while company B's price is slightly above $16.

The conclusion remains intact, even the growth rate of company A drops from 20% to 15%.

The key is the sustainability of the growth rate, which in this case, seems pretty promising.

(vested)

Interim dividend was increased while the previous final dividend was cut YoY. Together with the uncertainty facing their cashflow and change in strategy, IMHO I think the stock is probably fairly valued around 4% yield.

The stock probably will have some upside if the final dividend declared next February increase. It's gonna be a waiting game until their Yishun operation begins

(13-06-2014, 05:24 PM)specuvestor Wrote: To recap 3 of us have discussed about this 7 months ago
http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-1240-...l#pid66075

The operating lease is not going to be comparable to the depreciation cost of an asset heavy strategy that will drag down ROI. But as discussed I can see the logic from a business owner point of view.

The way to mitigate the decline in ROA is of course to leverage and increase ROE so I agree with CF. The strategy has changed. I think short term cashflow will be affected until they start operation on Yishun and Tampines. As long as they continue to pay the absolute dividends I think investors would be patient to wait.

NB Yishun purchase is based on existing SS shops but Tampines is new, though gut feel is a good risk/reward site. But Alpha Quant stated it most accurately:

(04-11-2013, 04:05 PM)AlphaQuant Wrote: But whether a location is a hit or miss is perhaps not as easy to tell before Day 1. The 2012 AR says ShengSiong has 33 outlets - in 2013 there are 25. So there is a net closure of 8 outlets - there's no mention of why but i will probably think that they were unprofitable. In a way it makes sense, since a location proven to be successful will probably already have a NTUC/Dairyfarm there, hence it does not make sense to open another one to compete; a location which does not have them is untested and only time will tell. The fact that there were 8/33==24% unsuccessful locations prob shows SS does not have perfect knowledge in location choices (which is perfectly acceptable).

(30-07-2014, 05:44 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Interim dividend was increased while the previous final dividend was cut YoY. Together with the uncertainty facing their cashflow and change in strategy, IMHO I think the stock is probably fairly valued around 4% yield.

The stock probably will have some upside if the final dividend declared next February increase. It's gonna be a waiting game until their Yishun operation begins

Third quarter result will serve as good indicator for end-year dividend, base on its regular 90% payout ratio. Base on the trend now, it is likely the year-end dividend will be increased.

Before the Yishun operation, which is scheduled around 2016/17 time frame, we will see contribution from Tampine starting 2015, if the deal is completed.

I do agree 3%-4% dividend yield seems the optimum.

(vested, and thus biased)

Are the existing Tampines tenants lease expiring 2015 enough for them to start operations?

"The Property will be acquired subject to existing tenancies which will expire at various dates between 2014 and 2018 (“Existing Tenancies”)."

(31-07-2014, 12:02 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Are the existing Tampines tenants lease expiring 2015 enough for them to start operations?

"The Property will be acquired subject to existing tenancies which will expire at various dates between 2014 and 2018 (“Existing Tenancies”)."

Base on last disclosure, the company will do so. The space of 910 sqm or close 9800 sqft is more than sufficient as a decent retail store.

(vested)

"It is envisioned that the Group’s new store, which will be approximately 910 square metres,
will be opened in the first quarter of 2015, and will be incrementally enlarged in tandem with
the scheduled expiry of various Existing Tenancies in 2016 and 2017. The Group will take into
account the prevailing market conditions in its operational decisions."

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/SSS_506_...eID=300703

UOB KayHian analyst report on the company, unrated but consensus TP is S$0.78

3-year CAGR of approx 13%, and with 4-5% dividend yield, thus sum-up as growth rate of 17-18%, not too far from mine...

First info on online store, less than 1% of total sale at the moment, i.e. approx $6 million sales...

(vested)

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 Sheng Siong Group (SSG) is currently trading at consensus 2014F and 2015F PE
of 20x and 18.9x respectively. This is in comparison to Dairy Farm International’s
27.8x and 25.2x. SSG’s earnings are projected to grow at a 3-year CAGR of 12.9%.
 4.3-4.9% dividend yields for 2014-16, based on consensus forecasts. Consensus
12-month target price of S$0.78 implies an upside of 11.4% from current level.

http://remisiers.org/cms_images/research..._Siong.pdf

(05-08-2014, 10:09 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: UOB KayHian analyst report on the company, unrated but consensus TP is S$0.78

3-year CAGR of approx 13%, and with 4-5% dividend yield, thus sum-up as growth rate of 17-18%, not too far from mine...

First info on online store, less than 1% of total sale at the moment, i.e. approx 6 million sales...

(vested)

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 Sheng Siong Group (SSG) is currently trading at consensus 2014F and 2015F PE
of 20x and 18.9x respectively. This is in comparison to Dairy Farm International’s
27.8x and 25.2x. SSG’s earnings are projected to grow at a 3-year CAGR of 12.9%.
 4.3-4.9% dividend yields for 2014-16, based on consensus forecasts. Consensus
12-month target price of S$0.78 implies an upside of 11.4% from current level.

http://remisiers.org/cms_images/research..._Siong.pdf

Thank you for the info. Vested too and looking for more opportunity to accumulate, maybe during XD on 8 Aug if price is attractive enough...

OSK DMG analyst report, rating BUY, TP $0.74

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Sheng Siong’s 2Q14 earnings jumped 30% y-o-y to SGD11.1m on higher
sales growth since 3Q13, as well as significantly better margins. As
such, 1H14’s SGD23.6m net profit (+24% y-o-y) made up 55% of
consensus estimates. We expect gross margins, which have been on
the rise since 1Q14, to widen further. We like management’s strong
operational capability and relentless push for efficiency. Maintain BUY,
with a DCF-derived TP of SGD0.74.

http://rhbosk.ap.bdvision.ipreo.com/NSig...3adb57.pdf