Chip Eng Seng

Mr. market will likely to react positively with good result. In fact those BB who have insider info will jump in early to position themselves for the ride.

However, FY14 result will only be announce in Feb2015. If the market sentiment is still bullish, then we will see positive outcome.

After post addition:

Mr. Tan Yong Keng has been accumulating since Jan2013. He is SSH with 8% holding.

(24-07-2014, 02:34 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: Taking reference from Lian Bian, whose full-year net profit attributable to shareholders surged 19.4 per cent to a high of S$87.1 million, boosted by record revenue and higher gross margin.

Its share price has risen by more than 50% in the last few months, based on a 20% jump in EPS.

Not sure how would Mr Market react in the event that CES reports a 150% to 200% jump in EPS for full year 2014 ?

How much is CES likely to "bleed" from its poor sales at Fulcrum ?

To date, only 17 units have been sold.

What are the available options to mitigate the bloodbath?

(28-07-2014, 02:40 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: How much is CES likely to "bleed" from its poor sales at Fulcrum ?

To date, only 17 units have been sold.

What are the available options to mitigate the bloodbath?

All the directors & senior managers, and their relatives, buy an unit each.

For Fulcrum, I calculated that CES needed to sell around 80 units to breakeven their total cost of development (land + constructions + others). The remaining 48 units will come free thereafter.

With the current sales at only 17 sales, even if all the relatives buy one unit, that is still a long way off the breakeven number.

(28-07-2014, 03:33 PM)NTL Wrote:

(28-07-2014, 02:40 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: How much is CES likely to "bleed" from its poor sales at Fulcrum ?

To date, only 17 units have been sold.

What are the available options to mitigate the bloodbath?

All the directors & senior managers, and their relatives, buy an unit each.

(28-07-2014, 03:39 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: For Fulcrum, I calculated that CES needed to sell around 80 units to breakeven their total cost of development (land + constructions + others). The remaining 48 units will come free thereafter.

With the current sales at only 17 sales, even if all the relatives buy one unit, that is still a long way off the breakeven number.

(28-07-2014, 03:33 PM)NTL Wrote:

(28-07-2014, 02:40 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: How much is CES likely to "bleed" from its poor sales at Fulcrum ?

To date, only 17 units have been sold.

What are the available options to mitigate the bloodbath?

All the directors & senior managers, and their relatives, buy an unit each.

How about lowering the prices of the units by 20% and sell 97 units to break even? For many developers, one or two of their projects have lots of unsold units simply because they are hit by the TDSR framework. Therefore, it is paramount they price their units within the 60% servicing ratio their clients can afford.

For further info, there is another development next to it called The Line, sales are pretty bad too despite the "Freehold" attraction and being close to a prestigious school.

Just to clarify. Since they had already sold 17 units, they only needed to sell another (80 - 17) or 63 more units to breakeven.

Breakeven PSF per unit is around $1240 PSF (all costs included). There is still quite a lot of "fat" left to give discount to move the units.

(28-07-2014, 03:43 PM)CY09 Wrote:

(28-07-2014, 03:39 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: For Fulcrum, I calculated that CES needed to sell around 80 units to breakeven their total cost of development (land + constructions + others). The remaining 48 units will come free thereafter.

With the current sales at only 17 sales, even if all the relatives buy one unit, that is still a long way off the breakeven number.

(28-07-2014, 03:33 PM)NTL Wrote:

(28-07-2014, 02:40 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: How much is CES likely to "bleed" from its poor sales at Fulcrum ?

To date, only 17 units have been sold.

What are the available options to mitigate the bloodbath?

All the directors & senior managers, and their relatives, buy an unit each.

How about lowering the prices of the units by 20% and sell 97 units to break even? For many developers, one or two of their projects have lots of unsold units simply because they are hit by the TDSR framework. Therefore, it is paramount they price their units within the 60% servicing ratio their clients can afford.

For further info, there is another development next to it called The Line, sales are pretty bad too despite the "Freehold" attraction and being close to a prestigious school.

(28-07-2014, 04:03 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: Just to clarify. Since they had already sold 17 units, they only needed to sell another (80 - 17) or 63 more units to breakeven.

Breakeven PSF per unit is around $1240 PSF (all costs included). There is still quite a lot of "fat" left to give discount to move the units.

(28-07-2014, 03:43 PM)CY09 Wrote:

(28-07-2014, 03:39 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: For Fulcrum, I calculated that CES needed to sell around 80 units to breakeven their total cost of development (land + constructions + others). The remaining 48 units will come free thereafter.

With the current sales at only 17 sales, even if all the relatives buy one unit, that is still a long way off the breakeven number.

(28-07-2014, 03:33 PM)NTL Wrote:

(28-07-2014, 02:40 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: How much is CES likely to "bleed" from its poor sales at Fulcrum ?

To date, only 17 units have been sold.

What are the available options to mitigate the bloodbath?

All the directors & senior managers, and their relatives, buy an unit each.

How about lowering the prices of the units by 20% and sell 97 units to break even? For many developers, one or two of their projects have lots of unsold units simply because they are hit by the TDSR framework. Therefore, it is paramount they price their units within the 60% servicing ratio their clients can afford.

For further info, there is another development next to it called The Line, sales are pretty bad too despite the "Freehold" attraction and being close to a prestigious school.

Do CES has a timeframe to sell the properties like Wing Tai? If not, then it can be profit in near future assuming our govt start to relax the rules. Otherwise, it's not going to be good. I am thinking to invest in it but hesitating about longer-term impact.

http://www.btinvest.com.sg/system/bti/pr...g28-29.pdf

For info pls.

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URA’s islandwide retail price index showed modest y-o-y growth of 5.3 per cent, 2 per cent and 4.3 per cent in 2011, 2012 and 2013 respectively. However, we noted that small format shops tend to command higher unit prices (on a psf basis), with some transactions recording
eye-popping psf prices in tens of thousands of dollars. Based on transactions done in 2013, the highest unit price of $13,714 psf was commanded by a 21 sq m (226 sq ft) ground-floor unit at the freehold Lucky Plaza in Orchard Road.

The second highest unit price of $11,696 psf was achieved by a 10 sq m (108 sq ft) ground-floor unit during the launch of Alexandra Central, a 99-year leasehold project being developed on the former Bukit Merah Safra site.

Delving into capital values by region, retail property price growth in 2013 was led by the West region. With an exceptional 301.5 per cent y-o-y hike, capital values in the West averaged $6,173 psf (See Chart 5). This was due to the sale of new retail units at NEWest, a mixed-use residential and commercial development located in Clementi with a 956-year lease. The recent opening of Jem and
Westgate in Jurong East also shifted investors’ attention onto the West region.

Capital values in 2013 were also bolstered by new launches in mixed-use developments in the Central (Alexandra Central, Pavilion Square, King Albert Park (KAP)),
North East (The Midtown, Kensington Square, Spazio @ Kovan) and North (Junction Nine) regions.

Over in the East region, the capital values of strata retail units moderated last year, as there were no new retail strata launches after the launch of East Village in 2012.
The limited supply of strata retail units in the suburban areas has generally supported price growth.

The top transaction of 2013 consisted of six adjoining units at Junction Nine, which were snapped up by Sheng Siong for $54.9 million ($2,950 psf) in October. This showed that retailers remained confident about the potential of suburban retail space with its ready catchment of residents. Indeed, the gap between the average capital values of strata units in the Central and North regions narrowed to 9 per cent in 2013, while the average capital values in the North East and West regions exceeded the Central region by 12 per cent and 48 per cent, respectively.

Have to caution all buddies here.

CES's Q2 results might be "uninspiring". the real spark will come in Q3 or Q4 when Alex Central Retail segment TOP and also in 2015 when the hotel segment's revaluation is factored in.

Based on company's Q1 statement, Alex retail will TOP in 2H.
If that happens, full year EPS will likely exceed 30 cents (IMHO)

"CES has managed to create a small company of market cap ~$200mil based on one FY result"

Happy trading

(29-07-2014, 09:11 AM)Curiousparty Wrote: Have to caution all buddies here.

CES's Q2 results might be "uninspiring". the real spark will come in Q3 or Q4 when Alex Central Retail segment TOP and also in 2015 when the hotel segment's revaluation is factored in.

Based on company's Q1 statement, Alex retail will TOP in 2H.
If that happens, full year EPS will likely exceed 30 cents (IMHO)

"CES has managed to create a small company of market cap ~$200mil based on one FY result"

Happy trading

Isn't that there is Belysa to be recognized this quarter? This should contribute 3 cent EPS.
In addition, My Manhattan should be this quarter as well. My Manhattan is using progressive billing. How much unbilling revenue is unknown. But, it can be sure that, there should have some contribution to this quarter.

2nd Half 2014, there is also Belvia to be recognized. Expected 7 cents EPS.