(24-07-2014, 08:44 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: My basis is that Amvig which is a pure tobacco printing/packaging, with a much higher profit margin is only trading at P/E of 6 plus in HONG KONG.
24-07-2014, 09:10 PM (This post was last modified: 24-07-2014, 09:38 PM by Curiousparty.)
Amvig has the backing of Amcor, and New Toyo has no such investors.
If u remove the $58mil of cash (due to divestment from SAH), the debt level of New Toyo might not be that "low" anymore..
(24-07-2014, 09:09 PM)theasiareport Wrote: Yeah.. but you are missing out two points about AMVIG.
1) Former Chairman sold out of the company in 2007.
2) Directors have bee selling out their stakes in the company (Ng Sai Kit & Ge Su).
Also, just to point out the following financial position of AMVIG.
(24-07-2014, 08:44 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: My basis is that Amvig which is a pure tobacco printing/packaging, with a much higher profit margin is only trading at P/E of 6 plus in HONG KONG.
[I am not here to promote any stocks. Please always do your own research before embarking on any investment decision. I will not be liable for any of your own decisions. Your use of any information or materials is entirely at your own risk. It is your responsibility to ensure that any products, services or information meet your specific requirements. I do not produce material which meets the objectives of any specific financial and risk profile of investors.]
(24-07-2014, 09:10 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: Amvig has the backing of Amcor, and New Toyo has no such investors.
If u remove the $58mil of cash (due to divestment from SAH), the debt level of New Toyo might not be that "low" anymore..
(24-07-2014, 09:09 PM)theasiareport Wrote: Yeah.. but you are missing out two points about AMVIG.
1) Former Chairman sold out of the company in 2007.
2) Directors have bee selling out their stakes in the company (Ng Sai Kit & Ge Su).
Also, just to point out the following financial position of AMVIG.
(24-07-2014, 08:44 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: My basis is that Amvig which is a pure tobacco printing/packaging, with a much higher profit margin is only trading at P/E of 6 plus in HONG KONG.
Its already a done deal. Why is there a need to remove that cash?
If you sell your property to lower your debt, would you remove that cash just to show that you were once heavily in debt?
I would agree. If you truly wanted to value New Toyo for the company itself less off Tien Wah's share, it would really be too difficult. Balance sheet wise it is possible, however when it comes to income and cash flows, it is difficult to breakdown what belongs to New Toyo, what belongs to Tien Wah. However, valuing a company based on such a method is something I am still experimenting with and may not be an accurate way of valuing companies.
(not vested)
(25-07-2014, 08:57 AM)cywong76 Wrote: Its already a done deal. Why is there a need to remove that cash?
If you sell your property to lower your debt, would you remove that cash just to show that you were once heavily in debt?
I would prefer to value a company based on its ability to generate return on shareholder's equity. No matter how much cash it has or hold many undervalued assets, if the company is unable to unlock potential of the assets they hold to generate higher returns for it's shareholders then the company is not that fantastic afterall in my opinion.
(25-07-2014, 09:29 AM)Life is a game Wrote: I would prefer to value a company based on its ability to generate return on shareholder's equity. No matter how much cash it has or hold many undervalued assets, if the company is unable to unlock potential of the assets they hold to generate higher returns for it's shareholders then the company is not that fantastic afterall in my opinion.
[I am not here to promote any stocks. Please always do your own research before embarking on any investment decision. I will not be liable for any of your own decisions. Your use of any information or materials is entirely at your own risk. It is your responsibility to ensure that any products, services or information meet your specific requirements. I do not produce material which meets the objectives of any specific financial and risk profile of investors.]
26-07-2014, 07:53 AM (This post was last modified: 28-07-2014, 11:24 PM by Curiousparty.)
Impact on Plain Packaging - article by Citibank.
If Plain packaging has no impact on smoking rate, why are the tobacco companies making so much noise?
down trading of brands will lead to a sharp drop in profit margin for the tobacco companies.
If the tobacco companies make less money, they will "squeeze" their downstream vendors more in terms of cost savings (e.g. less willing to spend more money on printing/packaging, etc).
this is the flow on impact on to Tien Wah/New Toyo plus volume reduction as well.
The fact that BAT and PMI had closed down their plants plus New Toyo's shifting one of its two printers out of Australia is a tell tale sign that industry volume is fast declining.
With the excise tax increase already mapped out for next few years in Australia and New Zealand, the printing volume is set to drop further...
[I am not here to promote any stocks. Please always do your own research before embarking on any investment decision. I will not be liable for any of your own decisions. Your use of any information or materials is entirely at your own risk. It is your responsibility to ensure that any products, services or information meet your specific requirements. I do not produce material which meets the objectives of any specific financial and risk profile of investors.]
I can't help but puzzle on why so much interests in this counter. It seems driven purposefully to gain attention.
I could be mistaken but that what i felt.
Tien Wah's result is coming up soon. It will give a good preview of what New Toyo's results would likely be.
As Tien Wah had already mentioned that the full year FY14 results would not be good (based on Q1 results/statement), we will just have to wait and see how badly New Toyo's results would be impacted, given that Tien Wah's revenue/profit form a large segment of New Toyo.
[I am not here to promote any stocks. Please always do your own research before embarking on any investment decision. I will not be liable for any of your own decisions. Your use of any information or materials is entirely at your own risk. It is your responsibility to ensure that any products, services or information meet your specific requirements. I do not produce material which meets the objectives of any specific financial and risk profile of investors.]
01-08-2014, 10:34 AM (This post was last modified: 02-08-2014, 10:08 AM by Curiousparty.)
Based on the latest Q2-2014 from BAT, we can roughly surmise that challenging conditions will continue to take its toll on Tien Wah/New Toyo for its tobacco packing/printing segment, which contributes to the bulk of New Toyo's Group Profit.
While BAT has continued to make good revenue/profit from its cigarette making business, printing volumes have continued to decline in almost or all of the markets that Tien Wah operates in
Vietnam used to be a good market for Tien Wah with good printing volume. But now it seems that volume is contracting as well. <so poor thing.....sigh>
As explained previously, printing contractors (such as Tien Wah and New Toyo) are at the mercy of their clients (e.g. BAT, PMI) as they cannot "increase" the price of their products. Doing so would risk losing the business to other more cost-efficient printers (e.g. in china, etc)
Sellers are pushing New Toyo's share price lower by the days...
[I am not here to promote any stocks. Please always do your own research before embarking on any investment decision. I will not be liable for any of your own decisions. Your use of any information or materials is entirely at your own risk. It is your responsibility to ensure that any products, services or information meet your specific requirements. I do not produce material which meets the objectives of any specific financial and risk profile of investors.]
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