M1 (formerly: MobileOne)

Local telcos have always been resilent and profitable. As long the general economy is ok and the yields are strong, they typically provide strong base returns to me. Is a great business here. I do not see significant game changer yet.

(22-07-2014, 08:33 AM)corydorus Wrote: Local telcos have always been resilent and profitable. As long the general economy is ok and the yields are strong, they typically provide strong base returns to me. Is a great business here. I do not see significant game changer yet.

The fiber broadband service provided by NGNBN, suppose to level the playing field, and to allow "fair" competition among RSPs (Retail Service Provider), including the smaller players, but the marketing strategies of the trio (SingTel, M1 and Starhub) have distorted the competition landscape, and marginalizing the smaller players.

By right, the fiber broadband service is a commodity, with little pricing power. The trio managed to price a premium, with bundling of mobile services, which make the smaller players without mobile service a great disadvantages. For e.g. 1Gbps package by MyRepublic, priced at approx S$60, but the trio offering only 500mbps with approx the same price.

The lowest priced packages are from M1, and the last number I got from M1 management was the average gross margin is approx 30%, and the margin to-date is still intact base on my estimation.

Among the trio, M1 has an advantage with no existing fixed broadband business. M1 has the flexibility in pricing, without worrying the erosion of existing ARPU of fixed broadband business, as with SingTel and Starhub.

MyRepublic realizing the disadvantage, and intending to provide mobile service as well. The mobile service has high entry barrier, more so, with increasing regulation requirement nowaday e.g. the minimum national coverage. MyRepublic is trying to level the playing field for mobile service as well, in its proposal, but I doubt it is feasible, at least in mid term.

(vested, and sharing views on Singapore telecom sector)

OSK DMG analyst report, BUY rating with TP $4.3, after the 1H2014 result.

(vested)

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M1’s results were in line with RHB and consensus forecasts. It is seeing
good traction in monetizing data while roaming revenue weakness and
the competitive headwinds in broadband appear to have stabilized. M1
is also closing in on content carriage milestones, having met a key
prerequisite. We raise our DCF-based TP to SGD4.30 (from SGD3.65)
after lowering our WACC assumption to factor in lower competitive
risks and its stronger mobile traction. BUY.
http://rhbosk.ap.bdvision.ipreo.com/NSig...3b7ca1.pdf

The M1 share price is at all-time high of $3.72, congrat to all fellow shareholders.

M1 is having a slow and steady growth path, with key contributors from fibre broadband, 4G data and upcoming IPTV revenue. The share price should be approaching the $4 mark in near term? I wish so...

(vested)

Vickers has a lower target price of $3.85.

http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/rese...ers_M1.pdf

(23-07-2014, 09:23 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: The M1 share price is at all-time high of $3.72, congrat to all fellow shareholders.

M1 is having a slow and steady growth path, with key contributors from fibre broadband, 4G data and upcoming IPTV revenue. The share price should be approaching the $4 mark in near term? I wish so...

(vested)

Congrats Cityfarmer.

Seems like M1 is doing a better job in data monetisation than Singtel & Starhub.

(Vested)

The fiber broadband price war has started...

(vested)

TELCOS WAGE BRUISING FIBRE BROADBAND WAR
M1 slashes 1Gbps plan monthly rate to lowest yet in market; ARPUs
seen falling more.
In the cuƩhroat world of high‐speed and low‐cost fibre broadband,
the Big Three telcos are sharpening their knives.
On Thursday, M1 slashed the monthly rate for its one gigabit per
second (Gbps) fibre broadband plan from S$129 to S$49 as part of a
promoƟon for a 24‐month contract, making it the cheapest plan of
its kind in Singapore.
At this rate, it is almost a dollar cheaper than broadband rival
MyRepublic's 1Gbps plan which upended the market when it was
introduced in January for S$49.99 ‐ the cheapest plan then.
MyRepublic is unfazed by M1's latest move and told The Business
Times that it has no plans to lower its own 1Gbps rate. "We're happy
to see Singapore move towards the 1Gbps standard," a MyRepublic
spokesman said.
M1's promoƟon comes weeks aŌer SingTel launched an Unlimited
Fibre plan that offers speeds of up to 1Gbps, for S$69.90 a month.
In addiƟon to not throƩling BitTorrent traffic, SingTel's plan offers a
25 per cent discount on a third‐party virtual private network (VPN)
service  ‐  an unprecedented move by the telco. A VPN is typically
used to access services that are not offered here, such as video‐ streaming sites Neƞlix and Hulu, among other things.
M1's 1Gbps price plan puts it a hair's breadth ahead of MyRepublic's
offering, price‐wise. At the same Ɵme, SingTel's VPN opƟon mimics
the feature that smaller players such as ViewQwest have been
offering.
StarHub, too, is "working on a new 1Gbps home broadband offer",
its spokeswoman said on Thursday. More details will be announced
in the coming weeks. The telco had previously offered a 1Gbps
package priced at S$395.90 a month but had disconƟnued it
"recently" in preparaƟon for the new offer, it said.

http://remisiers.org/cms_images/research...g_Buzz.pdf

Starhub will NEVER offer a VPN....will kill off the CableTV business.

M1 3Q FY2014 result will be announced on 16 Oct 2014...

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Date%20o...eID=316731

Will we see M1 share price crosses $4 by end of the year? I am cautiously optimistic on that...

(vested)

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We maintain BUY on M1 (M1 SP), with FV adjusted to SGD4.20 (WACC: 7%, terminal growth: 1.5%) from SGD4.30, a 16% upside.
Its re-rating catalysts are: i) continued revenue market share gains, ii) stronger take-up of fiber plans and iii) better data
monetisation efforts. The fair value accounting on the iPhone should see M1’s service EBITDA margin bucking the trend in 4Q14, a
typically strong quarter for handset sales.

http://rhbosk.ap.bdvision.ipreo.com/NSig...e92e8e.pdf