China Sunsine Chemicals Holdings

How much lower, based on calculations and necessary assumptions?

Can someone provide the following:-
a. minimum
b. maximum
c. most likely value

for the Cost, Selling Price and Volume for each of the product sold by sunsine?

I can do some monte carlo simulation and post the results. tks.

(20-07-2014, 01:15 AM)tikam tikam Wrote: How much lower, based on calculations and necessary assumptions?

Agreed with you.

Given that the market expectation has already built up for a very good Q2 result, should the result be less-than-spectacular (e.g. 50% gain over Fy13, instead of the 100 to 150% expected by a lot of people by now), the counter is likely to drop back to the "pre-excitement" level again (i.e. 22-23 cents), as speculators scramble to exit the market...

(15-07-2014, 09:12 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(15-07-2014, 06:34 PM)Sfsh12 Wrote: At the recent AGM, management indicated that capital expenditure for the hotel investment will not be high.

Of the RMB338.9m borrowing, RMB50m is long term due in 2017. My guess is that this amount is likely to be for the investment in the central heating company. When completed, the co-gen heating plant is expected to be more energy efficient than the boiler that Sunsine is currently using.

Assuming you are right, the major part of the borrowing is for the core business working capital. Will that raise a concern, with a "promising outlook", which suppose to greatly improve the cash flow of the company?

I am a risk-averse investor, thus decided to stay at the sideline.

(not vested)

(20-07-2014, 09:26 AM)Curiousparty Wrote: Can someone provide the following:-
a. minimum
b. maximum
c. most likely value

for the Cost, Selling Price and Volume for each of the product sold by sunsine?

I can do some monte carlo simulation and post the results. tks.

(20-07-2014, 01:15 AM)tikam tikam Wrote: How much lower, based on calculations and necessary assumptions?

You have requested information on the minimum, maximum and most likely values pertaining to the Cost, Selling Price and Volume for each of the products sold by Sunsine, to help you run some monte carlo simulations and post the results. Are the simulations for Profit?

You have also stated that there is “flaw of average” in Portuser’s post. The only average in Portuser’s post is the average increase of three MBT-based accelerators. Is there flaw in taking the simple average when the weighted average cannot be determined?

(The following table is quoted from Portuser’s post dated 16 Jul)

.....................ASP in 1Q14….…Price on 30 June 14 …Increase TBBS………………. 22,500……..………25,214.…….…………….. .2,714
CBS………………..19,100..............22,650…….…..............3,550
MBTS………………16,300………..…...22,222….….….............5,922 Average…………..19,300..............23,362…….………….…….4,062

(Simple average is used instead of weighted average because capacity of individual accelerator is not available.)

I still need cost and volume for each product to work out the probable profit.

tks.

(22-07-2014, 10:42 AM)budgetier Wrote:

(20-07-2014, 09:26 AM)Curiousparty Wrote: Can someone provide the following:-
a. minimum
b. maximum
c. most likely value

for the Cost, Selling Price and Volume for each of the product sold by sunsine?

I can do some monte carlo simulation and post the results. tks.

(20-07-2014, 01:15 AM)tikam tikam Wrote: How much lower, based on calculations and necessary assumptions?

You have requested information on the minimum, maximum and most likely values pertaining to the Cost, Selling Price and Volume for each of the products sold by Sunsine, to help you run some monte carlo simulations and post the results. Are the simulations for Profit?

You have also stated that there is “flaw of average” in Portuser’s post. The only average in Portuser’s post is the average increase of three MBT-based accelerators. Is there flaw in taking the simple average when the weighted average cannot be determined?

(The following table is quoted from Portuser’s post dated 16 Jul)

.....................ASP in 1Q14….…Price on 30 June 14 …Increase TBBS………………. 22,500……..………25,214.…….…………….. .2,714
CBS………………..19,100..............22,650…….…..............3,550
MBTS………………16,300………..…...22,222….….….............5,922 Average…………..19,300..............23,362…….………….…….4,062

(Simple average is used instead of weighted average because capacity of individual accelerator is not available.)

(22-07-2014, 11:09 AM)Curiousparty Wrote: I still need cost and volume for each product to work out the probable profit.

tks.

(22-07-2014, 10:42 AM)budgetier Wrote:

(20-07-2014, 09:26 AM)Curiousparty Wrote: Can someone provide the following:-
a. minimum
b. maximum
c. most likely value

for the Cost, Selling Price and Volume for each of the product sold by sunsine?

I can do some monte carlo simulation and post the results. tks.

(20-07-2014, 01:15 AM)tikam tikam Wrote: How much lower, based on calculations and necessary assumptions?

You have requested information on the minimum, maximum and most likely values pertaining to the Cost, Selling Price and Volume for each of the products sold by Sunsine, to help you run some monte carlo simulations and post the results. Are the simulations for Profit?

You have also stated that there is “flaw of average” in Portuser’s post. The only average in Portuser’s post is the average increase of three MBT-based accelerators. Is there flaw in taking the simple average when the weighted average cannot be determined?

(The following table is quoted from Portuser’s post dated 16 Jul)

.....................ASP in 1Q14….…Price on 30 June 14 …Increase TBBS………………. 22,500……..………25,214.…….…………….. .2,714
CBS………………..19,100..............22,650…….…..............3,550
MBTS………………16,300………..…...22,222….….….............5,922 Average…………..19,300..............23,362…….………….…….4,062

(Simple average is used instead of weighted average because capacity of individual accelerator is not available.)

Thank you for your offer to project Sunshine's probable profit.

Sunsine provides only the sales volume, revenues and capacity of accelerators, insoluble sulphur and antioxidants. The costs of producing individual categories are not disclosed.

Revenues, costs and capacity for each type of accelerators are also not disclosed.

All we have in the accounts is the overall gross profit.

The overheads are also not broken down according to product categories

Are you going to run your simulations by varying each and every variables?

Looking forward to some trial results as I have some Sunshine shares.

Does anyone happen to know why sunsine share price dropped from the previous high of ~30 cents all the way down to 23 cents?

the worry is that if it can go up furiously, it can also come down furiously.

The result will be announced soon. Let's see the performance. The result will also unveil more indicators for its future outlook...

(not vested)

-----
SINGAPORE, 24 July 2014 - The Board of Directors of China Sunsine Chemical
Holdings Ltd. (the “Company”) wishes to inform that the Company will release its
financial results for the second quarter and half year ended 30 June 2014 on
Thursday, 7 August 2014.
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/CS_Notif...eID=306636

(18-07-2014, 09:44 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: The company's debt increased further to approx RMB 360 mil.

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/CS_Discl...eID=305879

(not vested)

Just realise that the new RMB20m loan is to replace an existing one that matured on 21 Jul 2014. Outstanding loans therefore were RMB 340m, not RMB 360m.
"...the Company wishes to announce that ....its subsidiary..has entered into a new loan agreement...with Agricultural Bank of China on 17 July 2014 to replace an earlier loan of the same amount maturing on 21 Jul 2014."

Sunsine’s borrowings have been matched by cash and near-cash:

……………………………………………………….RMB m
………………………..31 Dec 2012……….31 Dec 2013………31 Mar 2014
Borrowings……………….200…………………..230…………………..260
Cash………………………….105…………………..108…………………..147
Near cash……………….…149…'……………...158.…….…….……..123
Cash + Near-cash.…..254……………………266……………………270

(Near cash consists of bank-issued notes from customers. The notes can be presented to the issuing banks for cash or used to pay bills.)

Staying liquid has enabled the company to pay its bills promptly to enjoy better payment terms -- its trade payables turnover in 2013 was as low as 14 days, and below 20 days in the previous four years.