CDP sees highest 12-month surge in new accounts

That's why kan cheong spiders cannot be good share investors. Coz they need to be 101% sure.


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(01-07-2014, 04:52 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(01-07-2014, 04:26 PM)Temperament Wrote:

(01-07-2014, 03:35 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Why $64m??? At our age I thought $6m man is more familiar or u factored in inflation?

Jokes aside even with hindside I don't think SARS or 911 is predictable. OTOH the signs are there for AFC, dot com or GFC. These are very different 6 sigma events IMHO

But I think though black swan is an important concept in risk budgeting, it has as much practical value as Motorola's 6 sigma program.

Quote:The whole finance system would halt if decisions were based on 6 sigma events

Wah! Very cheem leh! Catch no ball liu for my IQ.

Care to explain as simple as possible why The whole finance system would halt if decisions were based on 6 sigma events

Let me try with layman term, Uncle Temp

Six sigma just a probability term. It means more than 99.99966% correct. So if the finance system needs to ensure 99.99966% correct on its decision, then nothing can be decided.

Wah! Possible or not in real life? Is it possible even in 99.999% with a 1 KG gold bar?

I have a slightly different take on the headline news of more than 68k new CDP accounts in the last 12 months, the highest 12 months addition ever.

- The headline number was used by the SGX retail VP as the sales pitch for the opening of an event to drum up retail interest. What is the actual no. of active accounts (which is found in Teh Hooi ling's article and may be a more meaningful statistic)?
- There isn't much historical data for comparison (tried searching but couldnt find any), Is 68k/year considered an anomaly? Is it statistically an outlier, or is there a steady increasing trend? What is going to happen in the next 12 months?
- As Boon mentioned, could this number be inflated by transfer of Linc Energy shareholders from ASX to SGX in Dec 2013? In addition, it is no secret SGX has been woo-ing retail investors. Is the increase in retail investors largely due to (1) irrational exuberance, or (2) SGX efforts?

(01-07-2014, 05:34 PM)Temperament Wrote:

(01-07-2014, 04:52 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(01-07-2014, 04:26 PM)Temperament Wrote:

(01-07-2014, 03:35 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Why $64m??? At our age I thought $6m man is more familiar or u factored in inflation?

Jokes aside even with hindside I don't think SARS or 911 is predictable. OTOH the signs are there for AFC, dot com or GFC. These are very different 6 sigma events IMHO

But I think though black swan is an important concept in risk budgeting, it has as much practical value as Motorola's 6 sigma program.

Quote:The whole finance system would halt if decisions were based on 6 sigma events

Wah! Very cheem leh! Catch no ball liu for my IQ.

Care to explain as simple as possible why The whole finance system would halt if decisions were based on 6 sigma events

Let me try with layman term, Uncle Temp

Six sigma just a probability term. It means more than 99.99966% correct. So if the finance system needs to ensure 99.99966% correct on its decision, then nothing can be decided.

Wah! Possible or not in real life? Is it possible even in 99.999% with a 1 KG gold bar?

IIRC black swan events refers to 4 sigma events. I used 6 sigma to draw a parrallel to Motorola. I'm not even sure practically what is the diff between 4 and 6 sigmas

The Motorola way actually achieved 10 defects per million IIRC. But where is Motorola now? Some food for thought.

Banks use a thing called VAR to estimate their risk. If u use 6 sigma as guide then like opmi and CF say, no need to cho kang already, everyday just be chicken little or 杞人忧天 That's why black swan is a interesting risk budgeting concept we should be mentally aware, but of little practical use. Taleb's own career is a testament how useful it is

When you learn more about investment, you will find that it is more an art than a science. Going too much into statistic may not give you good return in share investment. Regardless of how much analysis done there are always unexpected events, just don't go too extreme.

(01-07-2014, 07:16 PM)weijian Wrote: I have a slightly different take on the headline news of more than 68k new CDP accounts in the last 12 months, the highest 12 months addition ever.

- The headline number was used by the SGX retail VP as the sales pitch for the opening of an event to drum up retail interest. What is the actual no. of active accounts (which is found in Teh Hooi ling's article and may be a more meaningful statistic)?
- There isn't much historical data for comparison (tried searching but couldnt find any), Is 68k/year considered an anomaly? Is it statistically an outlier, or is there a steady increasing trend? What is going to happen in the next 12 months?
- As Boon mentioned, could this number be inflated by transfer of Linc Energy shareholders from ASX to SGX in Dec 2013? In addition, it is no secret SGX has been woo-ing retail investors. Is the increase in retail investors largely due to (1) irrational exuberance, or (2) SGX efforts?

The reality is despite these new 68K accounts , why volume and trade values are still very depressed ?

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/premium/...d-20140702

PUBLISHED JULY 02, 2014
HOCK LOCK SIEW
Attracting retail investors: mindset change needed
BYR SIVANITHY
sivan@sph.com.sg @RSivanithyBT
PRINT |EMAIL THIS ARTICLE
Shoppers retailsw0207
Retail investors are like any others in the market, whether big or small - they will trade if they think they can make money - PHOTO: SPH
EVER since the penny segment crashed last October, the local stock market has suffered from a withdrawal of retail participation. Volume today is about half what it was before the crash, prompting the release of a consultation paper from the authorities on ways to strengthen the market in the wake of that collapse.
The measures recommended - but not yet implemented - are all sound and should enhance the market's infrastructure in no small measure, but as yet there has been no discernible effect on small investor presence or sentiment. Despite the fact that a record number of Central Depository (CDP) accounts were opened in the past 12 months, actual trading remains depressed.
It's a perplexing problem which thus confronts the Singapore Exchange (SGX) - what should be done to bring retail players back?
Retail investors are like any others in the market, whether big or small - they will trade if they think they can make money. Ergo, it has to be that the bulk of them are absent today because they believe they cannot make money, or worse, that investing/trading in Singapore stocks means losing money.

Attracting retail investors: mindset change needed (continued)

Some may have reached this conclusion because of valuation reasons - after considering earnings, growth, liquidity and so forth, they may see little upside to stocks, whatever the sector. If so, then there is very little that SGX and the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) can do since valuations are beyond their purview.

Others may have thrown in the towel out of frustration at being hit repeatedly over the past 15 years, from the regional crisis of 1998 to the dotcom crash of 2000, the Sars epidemic of 2003, the S-chip scandal of 2007, 2008's US sub-prime crisis and most recently the penny stock crash of 2013 - all were market catastrophes that hurt the retail pocket badly.

Again, apart from ensuring that broking houses are financially strong enough to survive such calamities, there is little SGX and MAS can do to protect investors from outside shocks since negotiating such events forms part of investing.

There is, however, a cohort of individuals who may have decided to abandon stocks because they believe that the playing field is too heavily tilted against them.

A slight tilt is perhaps acceptable - after all when has the playing field ever been perfectly flat? - but if they perceive it as being patently skewed away from them and in favour of insiders and institutions, then remaining invested is a fool's game and one that is bound to end in financial loss.

This is a segment which can be attracted back into stocks, as are the groups which bemoan the loss of personalised service from their remisiers and the possible shortening of the contra trading period and who are afflicted by an overall loss of confidence in the system to look after their interests.

If the maxim that "the small investor always gets screwed" is accurate, then who in their right mind would stick around'
So, back to the core problem - how to convince small investors that there's money still in Singapore stocks'

It isn't easy by any means but maybe the starting point should be a fundamental change in mindset among all connected with the market. Instead of focusing on what used to be, the emphasis should be on what could be. Instead of working at odds with each other - as appears to be case today - there should be greater unity in an effort to engage the retail public.

Retail brokers, for example, have to accept that contra may have to be gradually withdrawn, that the lunch break is a thing of the past and that continuing education and skills upgrading are essential if they are to offer the best possible service to the retail public. No point complaining and criticising, best to just knuckle down and get on with it.

Individual investors must learn that buying today and hoping to contra out tomorrow at a hefty profit is a wholly unrealistic and unsustainable way of investing.

It may have been occasionally possible when Malaysian stocks traded here on Clob International - and perhaps even today in penny speculatives - but in that direction probably lies overstretching oneself and overtrading, eventually leading to probable financial disaster.
The authorities for their part should take pains to signal a resolve to protect the rights of small players.

In the area of initial public offers, for example, there should be greater allocation to the public and a higher shareholding spread. More protection should be afforded minorities when companies are taken private by large, dominant major shareholders and investigations into possible insider leaks should be concluded much more quickly than they are currently in order to instill greater confidence in the regulatory system.

Last but not least, broking houses have to review remuneration arrangements in order to incentivise retail brokers to raise their service game since it makes no sense to expect remisiers to look after their customers with the same care as in the past when commissions were triple present levels.

Instead of the piecemeal approach taken today, a comprehensive strategy is needed to tackle the problem. If this is done, the attitude among all relevant parties should be how to work together instead of against one another. A mindset change is the starting point.

+68k accounts later... and SGX is still not reaping additional profits

Think there are no correlation between exuberance and account openings. Meanwhile, newspapers are talking about removing property cooling measures... being the government's mouthpiece, simply by talking about it would mean that it's on the govt's mind. Slowly but surely the measures will be coming off, so I'd expect people with cash to continue having cash as opposed to investing in equities so they can snap up some properties (SG preferred money park) when the measures comes off.

(02-07-2014, 10:57 AM)piggo Wrote: +68k accounts later... and SGX is still not reaping additional profits

piggo,
just flip back the newspaper...
last few months, so many bad news...
almost everyone is expecting a big crash...
one of our ex-value buddy even sold out his value stocks and started to talk down his favourite stocks...

how to go up?
sgx is trying their best to encourage retail investors to participate.
more measures will come and until then probably it's just the in-house traders trading among themselves.

meanwhile, enjoy the football and especially now with Ramadan going on...

just do the right things.

Love Compassion



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