Timing the market

(22-06-2014, 04:58 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(21-06-2014, 11:29 PM)theasiareport Wrote: Marketing timing is really tough. You can be right, but still wrong... just look at people who shorted the dot-com bubble too early.

At the same time, I think its important to know which part of the cycle we are in, and be especially weary when everyone starts getting on the investing bandwagon.

Timing the market is very difficult, if not impossible. You can be right once, twice, and very wrong at third time, and all back to square.

I have given up on it. The market sentiment is a good supplementary indicator for FA, but shouldn't be the main one, IMO

Everyone will find what that suits him. The one that makes money for him more consistently is right for him.
FA is as good as the AR only. If only we can be as sure as the insiders.

(22-06-2014, 05:11 PM)Temperament Wrote:

(22-06-2014, 04:58 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(21-06-2014, 11:29 PM)theasiareport Wrote: Marketing timing is really tough. You can be right, but still wrong... just look at people who shorted the dot-com bubble too early.

At the same time, I think its important to know which part of the cycle we are in, and be especially weary when everyone starts getting on the investing bandwagon.

Timing the market is very difficult, if not impossible. You can be right once, twice, and very wrong at third time, and all back to square.

I have given up on it. The market sentiment is a good supplementary indicator for FA, but shouldn't be the main one, IMO

Everyone will find what that suits him. The one that makes money for him more consistently is right for him.
FA is as good as the AR only. If only we can be as sure as the insiders.

Yes, consistently is the keyword.

Twice in the last few years, I increased my cash, thinking a correction was around the corner. I was wrong both times.

I'm slowly increasing my cash again. I could be wrong again, but that's the price of safety.

(22-06-2014, 05:29 PM)tanjm Wrote: Twice in the last few years, I increased my cash, thinking a correction was around the corner. I was wrong both times.

I'm slowly increasing my cash again. I could be wrong again, but that's the price of safety.

Ha! Ha!
You don't have to be right on the spot. If it happens, thank your lucky stars or God must have been very kind to you.
i am usually too early into cash (out of the market - can be too early by 2 to 3 years) and too early into the market until my fear overtakes me.
But not caught by the Bear is more important then losing some money due to sitting on cash through the inflation years. You should be able to recover from the market when the Bull charge again. No? Then look for some other way of investing, lol.
Or go and read the article i posted again on "Timing The market".

Everyone will have their own definition of market timing. For some, it is to catch the peak and trough. For others it is not to be caught at the peak and trough.

(22-06-2014, 08:50 PM)GPD Wrote: Everyone will have their own definition of market timing. For some, it is to catch the peak and trough. For others it is not to be caught at the peak and trough.

Both are equally difficult, if not impossible to do it consistently, IMO

Timing the market is extremely important to me.
For my fundamental stocks, I adjust my buying price based on market sentiments.

For my tikam counters, don't even touch them without consulting the mid and short term trending, man.

My ability to time the market is extremely rewarding.

Of course, a lot of time, luck play a big/bigger role too.

+++++++++++++++
In reality, I do not leverage and hence give myself off the pressure during black swan events. ( thanks god, they are so rare and the recovery is always fast and furious! Don't tell me this time is different

+++++++++++++++
You still remember tan asked a question about 2 cycles/crisis&recovery, and how you know whether you are better or not?

A senior Value buddies, says the % gain from 2nd cycle must be more than the 1st cycle gain or profits.

NOW, I tell you.
I know enough people profited handsomely on the first cycle.
AND, they stay out or only tip toe in the second cycle.
EVEN, until today, a long long wait, they are still wondering/contemplating why the big crash is not here yet?

Very funny, hur?

It's nothing wrong, actually.
(but, moderator, allow me to re-post Mr Lee picture again:
   

Love Compassion


Earth day - save the world everyday.

(22-06-2014, 10:32 PM)chialc88 Wrote: Timing the market is extremely important to me.
For my fundamental stocks, I adjust my buying price based on market sentiments.

For my tikam counters, don't even touch them without consulting the mid and short term trending, man.

My ability to time the market is extremely rewarding.

Of course, a lot of time, luck play a big/bigger role too.

Definition time . The definition of market timing by wiki

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_timing

"Market timing is the strategy of making buy or sell decisions of financial assets (often stocks) by attempting to predict future market price movements."

If you have decided to buy/sell base on FA, but executing it by market sentiment. I will not say it is "timing the market".

(23-06-2014, 05:06 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(22-06-2014, 10:32 PM)chialc88 Wrote: Timing the market is extremely important to me.
For my fundamental stocks, I adjust my buying price based on market sentiments.

For my tikam counters, don't even touch them without consulting the mid and short term trending, man.

My ability to time the market is extremely rewarding.

Of course, a lot of time, luck play a big/bigger role too.

Definition time . The definition of market timing by wiki

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_timing

"Market timing is the strategy of making buy or sell decisions of financial assets (often stocks) by attempting to predict future market price movements."

If you have decided to buy/sell base on FA, but executing it by market sentiment. I will not say it is "timing the market".

Indeed. Predicting when the event will take place is different from waiting for the event to take place .

While predicting might lead you to wait for the event to take place, too long a wait might lead you to start predicting when will the event take place.

How about people who never waddle into the market before? I met one dental professional during the 2008/2009 GFC who was so smug about that he was never in the market before. May be we all in the market then looked a kind of stupid to him. i thought i did (to him) until this day.
i just wonder has he waddled into the market yet, by design or accident? Or he never will? He just wants to look smug all the time.