UMS Holdings

(11-06-2014, 11:46 AM)orangetea Wrote:

(11-06-2014, 10:02 AM)valuebuddies Wrote: All newbies buying!! What about the sifus and laojiaos? I tempted to add also but think the sell down might not end yet.

EDIT: I mean forum newbies who might be already very familiar with value investing

Sorry, to play devil's advocate here...

So far the posts i read are trying to justify the character of the CEO and the relationship betwen UMS & their only customer - Fair enough
(But no release of info by company despite the price plunge is not very investor friendly - though they have 2 working days to mandatory disclosure - and why is SGX not asking too is another "?")

I think what is missing here is what is the price this company is valued at.
Because as value investors, we have the holding power, to buy regardless of the manic mr market selling.

Of course, it is human instincts to buy at the lowest possible.

Since blood is already on the street for this company share price (To quote buffett), the question is it a worth while buy to which we will understand how the company is run and someday be run by idiots.

I do hope to see some disclosure prompted by SGX taking the lead.

i doubt SGX will do anything.. the price surges, SGX never query.. so why are they query when it drops.. since the shareholders already announced paring their stakes..

(11-06-2014, 10:26 AM)passiveincome Wrote: disclaimer... the above is just my speculation. I'm just in the dark. For all we know merger will fail the regulators requirements.

Hi passiveincome,

Just wondering about the closing statement of yours. What do you mean by that? Especially you use the word "will" and not "may". Is it very certain?

Thanks.

(11-06-2014, 11:57 AM)NTL Wrote:

(11-06-2014, 10:26 AM)passiveincome Wrote: disclaimer... the above is just my speculation. I'm just in the dark. For all we know merger will fail the regulators requirements.

Hi passiveincome,

Just wondering about the closing statement of yours. What do you mean by that? Especially you use the word "will" and not "may". Is it very certain?

Thanks.

it has gone through the regulators in US.. closing the deal soon from what i read..

I see a lot of arguments going around here whether to buy or to sell at this attractive price level. Frankly i think a lot of people getting this stock based on its financial figures rather than understanding its business.

I guess it all boils down to 1 question whether it justify a buy or not. Forget about how good the dividend yield or net margin.

Can what UMS do be replaced by 3rd party or AMAT/TEL in house?

If the answer is NO, then it's a buy. If it's a YES, better step aside. If it is unsure, still better step aside, else you are gambling. Once AMAT decided to source other party or in house, or TEL comes to interfere, then it's gone case for UMS no matter how good is their finances now.

So UMS must possess something that can stop AMAT or TEL to divert the business from them.

If i am not sure, then it shows that i don't really understand the business. If i don't understand, better don't buy.

Issue I have with argument above, though sound, is that businesses hardly change day to day, prices do.

Like I posted in another thread: The basis of what you said is it any different if the post date is 3 years ago?

Think Nick and myself have roughly described what we think is UMS business model prior to XB in this page:
http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-2094-...l#pid83872

What has changed past few weeks is catalysts and price.

Sorry I've said too much... but just thought this is a good thread to share my personal experience live rather than hindside.

(11-06-2014, 12:02 PM)yenyenpark Wrote:

(11-06-2014, 11:57 AM)NTL Wrote:

(11-06-2014, 10:26 AM)passiveincome Wrote: disclaimer... the above is just my speculation. I'm just in the dark. For all we know merger will fail the regulators requirements.

Hi passiveincome,

Just wondering about the closing statement of yours. What do you mean by that? Especially you use the word "will" and not "may". Is it very certain?

Thanks.

it has gone through the regulators in US.. closing the deal soon from what i read..

HI NTL,

Sry didn't mean to mislead. I didn't mean anything by the word 'will'. Maybe it was too strong a word to use.

One question, is UMS too risky to be dependent on one major customer for its business? If Amat really pull out i think its almost game over.

(11-06-2014, 01:54 PM)Freenasi Wrote: One question, is UMS too risky to be dependent on one major customer for its business? If Amat really pull out i think its almost game over.

This is the single reason why I have not invested in UMS in all these yrs despite the juicy dividends. TEL has all the capabilities that UMS has and if the M&A goes through there is no reason for AMAT to hold on to a smaller player and small stake. Best to consol all in house. At this moment the risk reward is too high to hold on to UMS.

not vested

(11-06-2014, 10:01 AM)Stephentoh Wrote: Yea i'm add more lots @ 54cents. Business fundamentals are there, the frantic sale after bonus and sales by AMAS & Andy may just create an opportunity to enter at this current price,personally i dont see why the value now is not attractive. But the outlook for next year onward will be of concern, we know that its a cylincal coy. Excerise with cautious buddies.

seems that what you say is contradicting your buy decision.

newbie here,

May I know when the bonus share credit to me?