SMRT

(21-05-2014, 11:09 PM)brattzz Wrote:

(21-05-2014, 10:59 PM)chialc88 Wrote:

(21-05-2014, 10:51 PM)brattzz Wrote: I believe public transport fares has only one way to go, UP UP UP!

Yearly inflation adjustments to fares, ratio to median wages!

brattzz,
make some extra $$$?
buy SMRT and CD share and enjoy the fat dividends/profits?

cannot beat them, join them.

I took a bet on CD few months ago instead of SMRT because too many people scolding SMRT.

Live with Passion, Lead with Compassion

Yes of cos! public transport belongs to gov/LTA/MOT/Many stars generals and ministars! we sure cannot beat them... so have to join them lah!

All 3, SMRT/CD/SBS Transit, must buy to offset whatever fare increments coming for the next few years!

Buy Buy Buy!

Aiyah, its safer to wait till the next GE result. If govt win back GRC, then i will sell my Huppie, Venturie, Pengenie and buy all the 3 companies. If loss more GRCs, then avoid all companies closely related to govt .

It took a long time because the PAP passed the buck to 'market forces' in provision of public goods. The same 'Singapore Inc' crap again. Authority without accountability.

This is another step in dismantling the 90s policies. Aljunied is the catalyst.

(21-05-2014, 10:18 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: It has taken a long time for simple copy cat act like this on the part of policy makers.

On surface it also means that the cake will be cut into smaller pieces and the most efficient operator will make the best margin out of a capped margin.

Main thing here is how much govt will chip in for an essential public goods to ensure that consumers won't feel as much heat.

From the Australian experience, it is simply an annual inflation adjustment exercise that many are used to. Would Singapore consumers be willing to accept annual inflation adjustments?

SBS Transit and SMRT welcome new system
Published on May 22, 2014 1:12 AM



BOTH current public bus operators have welcomed the new contracting model.

SBS Transit said it is a more sustainable option but added that the "paradigm shift" would have a major impact.

It said it is prepared for the challenge and will tap sister companies in London and Sydney, which operate under a similar model. SBS Transit chief executive Gan Juay Kiat said: "This is one of the most significant developments in the local bus industry in recent times. We look forward to working closely with the authorities as we transit into the new operating environment."

SMRT spokesman Alina Boey said: "We are geared up to participate in the competitive tendering exercise."

Both operators will begin negotiations with the Land Transport Authority (LTA) on moving to the new model after their operating licences expire on Aug 31, 2016. SBS Transit and SMRT have suffered losses on their bus operations in recent times. SMRT reported a loss of $28.4 million for the financial year ending March 31.

The Straits Times understands several international operators have expressed interest, including French firms Veolia Transport RATP Asia and Keolis, and Australian firm Tower Transit.

Keolis spokesman Segolene Deeley said it may be interested in bus and rail contracting in Singapore. The largest public transport operator in France, Keolis runs various transport systems such as the bus, tram and metro in 15 countries.

ROYSTON SIM

It will take some time for the new system fully deployed...

(not vested in both SMRT and SBST)

Bus system restructure may have little immediate impact on SMRT, SBS shares

SINGAPORE — The overhaul of the Republic’s duopoly public bus system is expected to be seen by investors as positive for current operators SMRT and SBS Transit, but any upward movement in their share prices may be modest, given the rally seen over the past few weeks.

Analysts told TODAY the Government’s plan to nationalise bus operating assets and infrastructure, and contract bus services out via tenders could benefit the balance sheets of SMRT and SBS Transit, both of whom have been struggling with operating costs that outpace revenue gains from ridership.

“For a start, I think this transition will make the whole ecosystem of public buses more sustainable. That’s a positive because, under the current regime, the operators have found it hard to make money,” said Maybank Kim Eng analyst Derrick Heng.

“(But this announcement was) pretty much anticipated by the market and the share prices have rallied accordingly, so I don’t think it will move share prices up a lot further,” he added.

OCBC Investment Research analyst Andy Wong agreed that immediate impact on share prices of both operators would be subdued.

“(This news) has been in the talks for a while now and share prices of these companies have gone up quite a bit, especially for SMRT. So I think the market has priced this in, although I don’t discount the possibility of a positive knee jerk, since the shares did pull back a little.”
...
http://www.todayonline.com/business/syst...sbs-shares

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/LTA%20Ne...eID=298241

New Bus contracting model

Funny why SMRT didnt release this announcement

(21-05-2014, 11:23 PM)Bibi Wrote: brattzz wrote: All 3, SMRT/CD/SBS Transit, must buy to offset whatever fare increments coming for the next few years!

Bibi wrote: Aiyah, its safer to wait till the next GE result. If govt win back GRC, then i will sell my Huppie, Venturie, Pengenie and buy all the 3 companies.

I also thought about buying all 3 counters but decided to buy CD instead, reason being:

1. CD sounds better than SMRT or SBS. At that point in time, SMRT is like jinx. Everytime you mention SMRT, the train breaks down. Everyone scolding SMRT, so CD definitely sounds better. Besides, CD is also better than xd. every time after xd, share price will drop. (hur? just a lamb joke. Investment is serious fun ok?)

2. I had a personal encounter with CD number 1 (or number 2) man. Don't want to mention name.
Once, there was a system outage and I was asked to join in a meeting. I waited outside for half and hour before summon into the meeting room.
The man: "Mr Chia, how can these be prevented?"
Me: "Can not be prevented but we can reduce the incidence and then (I provide the model answer)."
The man: "Chia, these outage means $$$ lost. Is there anything else we could do?"
Me: "Well, if you're very serious about this. Then, this is what stock exchange do, and then (I explain a backup plan of the backup plan)"
The man pointed to his IT officer: "Can this be done?"
IT Officer just nod his head.
The man point to his Finance officer: "Put this into the budget."
He look up to me and smile:"Thank you Chia, I know what to do."

So, CD is the way to go. (Please don't shoot me, it's just a story.)

(22-05-2014, 11:32 AM)chialc Wrote:

(21-05-2014, 11:23 PM)Bibi Wrote: brattzz wrote: All 3, SMRT/CD/SBS Transit, must buy to offset whatever fare increments coming for the next few years!

Bibi wrote: Aiyah, its safer to wait till the next GE result. If govt win back GRC, then i will sell my Huppie, Venturie, Pengenie and buy all the 3 companies.

I also thought about buying all 3 counters but decided to buy CD instead, reason being:

1. CD sounds better than SMRT or SBS. At that point in time, SMRT is like jinx. Everytime you mention SMRT, the train breaks down. Everyone scolding SMRT, so CD definitely sounds better. Besides, CD is also better than xd. every time after xd, share price will drop. (hur? just a lamb joke. Investment is serious fun ok?)

2. I had a personal encounter with CD number 1 (or number 2) man. Don't want to mention name.
Once, there was a system outage and I was asked to join in a meeting. I waited outside for half and hour before summon into the meeting room.
The man: "Mr Chia, how can these be prevented?"
Me: "Can not be prevented but we can reduce the incidence and then (I provide the model answer)."
The man: "Chia, these outage means $$$ lost. Is there anything else we could do?"
Me: "Well, if you're very serious about this. Then, this is what stock exchange do, and then (I explain a backup plan of the backup plan)"
The man pointed to his IT officer: "Can this be done?"
IT Officer just nod his head.
The man point to his Finance officer: "Put this into the budget."
He look up to me and smile:"Thank you Chia, I know what to do."

So, CD is the way to go. (Please don't shoot me, it's just a story.)

Wah, thanks Mr. Chia for the interesting account.

PUBLISHED MAY 23, 2014
Focus falls on rail after bus overhaul
SMRT shares up as market bets on same revamp for train operators
BYSAMUEL EE
samuelee@sph.com.sg

SMRT yesterday closed 3.5 cents higher at $1.47 on heavy volume of 35.6 million shares, or an almost 50 per cent gain in just four weeks - PHOTO: SPH
application/pdf iconMixed fortunes
[SINGAPORE] With the revamp of the public bus sector announced and digested, the focus now has shifted to rail, with SMRT Corp shares getting a boost from speculation that the government may also assume ownership of its rail operating assets.
SMRT yesterday closed 3.5 cents higher at $1.47 on heavy volume of 35.6 million shares, or an almost 50 per cent gain in just four weeks.
But the train operator's stock did not have a good start to the day. It fell at the opening, and was down almost 4 per cent to the day's low of $1.375 in the morning.
Some analysts blamed the dip on profit-taking or negative reactions after the new public bus contracting model was unveiled on Wednesday.
Under this model, the government will own the assets of the two transport operators, SBS Transit and SMRT Corp.
The bus operators will then be contracted to run bus services through a competitive tendering process from the second half of 2016, with new entrants to the market expected apart from the two incumbents.
Only 20 per cent of routes will be tendered out initially, with the remaining 80 per cent to be operated by the incumbents at negotiated rates.
Since SBST and its parent ComfortDelGro are bigger, and the latter also has overseas experience with bus contracting, the group was seen as likely to benefit more from the new regime than SMRT.
So some analysts were taken aback when SMRT's stock rebounded in the afternoon into positive territory.
One analyst who was surprised by its resilience attributed its gains to anticipation about an impending rail asset purchase by the government, similar to the bus contracting model.
The operating assets, valued at more than $800 million, would then be leased to SMRT.
"Actually I thought it would weaken after having run up so strongly, especially since the impact of bus contracting will only be felt in 2017," he said.
He attributed the strong volume to the stock's liquidity after institutional funds sold off their SMRT shares over the past two years because of its poor operating performance.
Maybank Kim Eng's Derrick Heng said now that bus restructuring is done, the market is naturally focusing on rail.
But he advised caution due to the uncertainty over what is likely to be a more complicated transition.
This is because of "the challenging process of unwinding contractual agreements under the old regime".
"In particular, the treatment of existing asset purchase obligations in the transition process and future licensing charge are key details that remain lacking," said Mr Heng. "Furthermore, unlike the bus licences, which will expire in 2016, the majority of rail lines are contracted under the old regime to beyond 2019."
OSK DMG's Edison Chen is sceptical about a deal but for a different reason.
"We don't think the part about the rail financing framework which involves taking over legacy assets is viable because it is as good as using taxpayers' money to bail out the company which has not been able to keep its costs under control," said Mr Chen.
Maybank Kim Eng has maintained its "sell" rating on SMRT and "buy" rating on ComfortDelGro, which also surprised the market by falling five cents to end at $2.25 yesterday.
However, SBS Transit, the land transport giant's unit, fared better, closing 18.5 cents higher at $1.60.
One analyst said SBST shares jumped because the new model will have a big impact on its bus business, which has been suffering because of low margins.
"But I am a bit surprised by ComfortDelGro's fall because I would have thought its track record overseas will give it an edge when it comes to bidding for contracts, and because its economies of scale may yield better margins," he added.
Part of the reason, he speculated, could be "a bit of profit taking".
"Another reason is that ComfortDelGro has a bigger market share, so it will assume more risk when the industry is opened up to new players," he added. "Some people were slightly disappointed about the lack of details and worry if the operators can compete in the long run."

Will the data-analytics be able to help? I am optimistic on the result. IBM is strong in Big Data initiative, and a technical leader in this field...

(not vested)

LTA, SMRT and StarHub tap data-analytics to build a more efficient transport network

SINGAPORE — The Land Transport Authority (LTA) and SMRT will collaborate with StarHub and IBM in a bid to improve the public transportation network through the use of data.

The collaboration, announced today (June 2), has been named Fusion AnalyticS for public Transport Emergency Response, or FASTER. It will use data-driven analytic models for better crowd management and public transport incident management.

As part of the FASTER agreement, LTA and IBM will work together to combine farecard information from industry partners. SMRT will provide video data from selected MRT stations, and StarHub will provide anonymised telecommunications data for aggregate-level mobility analysis.

A joint statement from all four parties said that with the use of data to extract insights into crowd movements, “transport operators and authorities will be able to provide better information services to their employees and passengers”. CHANNEL NEWSASIA
http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/lta...rt-network

Mr. Lui's comment gives a hint that the "talk" is focusing mainly on valuation method. SMRT wants the current value, likely the BV, while LTA wants a discount...

(not vested)

Talks between SMRT, LTA on rail-financing framework ongoing

About three months after SMRT submitted a proposal to sell its rail assets to the Government, the Land Transport Authority (LTA) and the public transport operator are still some way off from reaching any agreement.

“Discussions between SMRT and LTA on the proposal are ongoing and they have not reached any agreement, nor are they close,” Transport Minister Lui Tuck Yew said yesterday in a written reply to questions filed by non-constituency Member of Parliament Gerald Giam.

Adding that he was unable to disclose details of SMRT’s proposal, Mr Lui said he understood that there “remains a wide gap between the opertator’s expectations and LTA’s position”. He said: “One of LTA’s considerations is that the valuation of SMRT’s business must take into account not only the value of existing assets that SMRT owns but also its current and future capital expenditure obligations, as required under the existing licences.”
...
http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/tal...rk-ongoing