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Lim & Tan ( from 16 april 2014)
We are recommending investors with a mid-longer term view to
HOLD/ADD to their HPL holdings as
a. Ong Beng Seng (OBS) and Wheelock Properties (WP) $3.50
a share offer for the 58.09% stake that they do not own in HPL
only values the stock at 1.13x its NTA of $3.13 which pales in
comparison to UOL’s 1.65x price to book offer for Pan Pacifi c
Hotels in Oct’13;
b. upon the lifting of the trading halt yesterday, HPL shares
have traded consistently above the $3.50 per share offer and
closed at $3.53 on higher than normal volumes of 2.961mln
shares which implies that there is a possibility that OBS’s inlaws,
namely the Fu family who cumulatively own 29% of HPL
could put in a counter bid on their own given that they have
not indicated that they will give in their shares to the OBS/WP
consortium;
c. the long-time talked about redevelopment potential of HPL
and WP’s assets along orchard road, namely Four Seasons
Hotel, Hilton Hotel, HPL House, Forum The Shopping Mall
and Wheelock Place will fi nally start to happen given OBS
and WP’s latest move that also states that if nothing were to
happen over the next 5 years (after the closing of the offer),
their respective stakes will be distributed back to them;
d. based on the 8 cents (4 cents normal and 4 cents special)
2013 dividend, investors are still paid a reasonable 2.3% yield
to wait for positive developments to happen;
e. while there is currently no coverage on HPL we note that Kim
Eng’s last note in 2012 on the company puts its RNAV at
$4.60.
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(15-05-2014, 03:28 PM)investor2014 Wrote: so far today, more than 2 million shares have transacted above the $4 offer price....
possibility of a higher price? lets hope so!
more than 3million shares done above $4 today....
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(15-05-2014, 05:17 PM)investor2014 Wrote: (15-05-2014, 03:28 PM)investor2014 Wrote: so far today, more than 2 million shares have transacted above the $4 offer price....
possibility of a higher price? lets hope so!
more than 3million shares done above $4 today....
today's volume of 3.8 million is the 2nd highest for the past month....
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This is the counter i hesitate to go in when on the day when it was announce someone offer to take it private @ $3.50. There is no time for me to think or investigate too much when the "opportunity" presented itself. This is the time of he who hesitates is lost (i.e. if it is a genuine offeror's opportunity and not bucket-shop operation). But how can i be sure?
Speculation or value investing?
The answer should be depended on who you ask?
WB:-
1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.
Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.
NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
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HPL is undervalued. However, in order to extract full potential and value out of the assets, one must be prepared to commit more capital in the future with the controlling holders - OBS/WP consortium and Fu Family.
OBS is already 69 and typically at this golden age, successful people tend to want to create some iconic projects or milestone before it is too late.
To them, it is unlikely to be just the issue of creating more wealth but the ability to execute and complete a bigger project than what they have done previously.
Being able to share wealth is another question but two bids is sufficient to benchmark the value of HPL not seen in years for stake holders and the bravehearts.
I took a stab in the first round but will leave it to the braver hearts this round.
Odd Lot Vested
GG
(15-05-2014, 10:49 PM)Temperament Wrote: This is the counter i hesitate to go in when on the day when it was announce someone offer to take it private @ $3.50. There is no time for me to think or investigate too much when the "opportunity" presented itself. This is the time of he who hesitates is lost (i.e. if it is a genuine offeror's opportunity and not bucket-shop operation). But how can i be sure?
Speculation or value investing?
The answer should be depended on who you ask?
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(15-05-2014, 10:55 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: HPL is undervalued. However, in order to extract full potential and value out of the assets, one must be prepared to commit more capital in the future with the controlling holders - OBS/WP consortium and Fu Family.
OBS is already 69 and typically at this golden age, successful people tend to want to create some iconic projects or milestone before it is too late.
To them, it is unlikely to be just the issue of creating more wealth but the ability to execute and complete a bigger project than what they have done previously.
Being able to share wealth is another question but two bids is sufficient to benchmark the value of HPL not seen in years for stake holders and the bravehearts.
I took a stab in the first round but will leave it to the braver hearts this round.
Odd Lot Vested
GG
(15-05-2014, 10:49 PM)Temperament Wrote: This is the counter i hesitate to go in when on the day when it was announce someone offer to take it private @ $3.50. There is no time for me to think or investigate too much when the "opportunity" presented itself. This is the time of he who hesitates is lost (i.e. if it is a genuine offeror's opportunity and not bucket-shop operation). But how can i be sure?
Speculation or value investing?
The answer should be depended on who you ask?
congrats on your 1st round entry!
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(15-05-2014, 10:49 PM)Temperament Wrote: This is the counter i hesitate to go in when on the day when it was announce someone offer to take it private @ $3.50. There is no time for me to think or investigate too much when the "opportunity" presented itself. This is the time of he who hesitates is lost (i.e. if it is a genuine offeror's opportunity and not bucket-shop operation). But how can i be sure?
Speculation or value investing?
The answer should be depended on who you ask?
I am guessing the answer is presented in your 'nickname'. Does it fit your temperament? Is your temperament rojak, confused, specuvesting, bold and act based on gut sense, cautious...? (the list goes on)
He who knows and stick to what he is about, while giving up what others pursue but is not true to his nature, is no fool.
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16-05-2014, 01:36 PM
(This post was last modified: 16-05-2014, 01:39 PM by investor2014.)
(15-05-2014, 05:17 PM)investor2014 Wrote: (15-05-2014, 03:28 PM)investor2014 Wrote: so far today, more than 2 million shares have transacted above the $4 offer price....
possibility of a higher price? lets hope so!
more than 3million shares done above $4 today....
compared to yesterday, today's volume has shrunk quite a bit...
but prices are still staying above $4.....
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http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Dealings...eID=297566
One director sold out @ $4.00. Yet to check if he is one of those that exercise his low costs options recently but certainly its good indication of his view.
IMO, extra pocket $ done liao. Further upside must put in more $ with obs/wp/fu to extract full potential over a period of time.
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16-05-2014, 04:08 PM
(This post was last modified: 16-05-2014, 04:09 PM by investor2014.)
(16-05-2014, 04:05 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Dealings...eID=297566
One director sold out @ $4.00. Yet to check if he is one of those that exercise his low costs options recently but certainly its good indication of his view.
IMO, extra pocket $ done liao. Further upside must put in more $ with obs/wp/fu to extract full potential over a period of time.
yes, he is one of those directors that exercised his options.
the exercise prices are 1.72/1.77/2.33
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