What if Ukraine's situation escalates?

All this actions are to reduce Russia influence. A world without a strong Russia is much safer.
Personally i don't really care significantly how US or Europe do it. We need to be pragmatic. They are still much better of the evils.
I prefer to be on their side rather on the Red.

Remember Michael Fay case with US, Singapore leaders can have different opinions but we do ok. They respect us.
If it have been Russia, i am sure we have stronger music. We need to choose our friends wisely and be pragmatic.

A long term peaceful world can have China. But N Korea, Iran and Russia (limited ones who still holding the soviet dream) are the last few that IMO can unbalance us with surprises. Syria is basically a minion.

(26-04-2014, 06:23 PM)freedom Wrote: Ask yourself, how much can Putin win by going further into Ukraine?

Yes, he might win the whole Ukraine. He will lose enormous economic value, possible his ruling of Russia. How much support will he get when most of the people are starving because of some nationalistic view?

He will lose the oil and gas revenue in Europe, replacing with lower pricing from China. Russia can't import from most of the countries in the world.

Russia are not in need of oil. Instead it exports oil to Europe and parts of Asia.

I do not think Russia will lose much economic value. Putin's plan on stranglehold of Europe started in his first presidential term in the early 2000s.

He built all the natural gas pipelines from Russia and ramify into tentacles into the European countries, inducing them to be dependent on Russia for natural gas.

If you read more about the Crimea crisis, major economic power in EU such as Germany were reluctant to impose sanction upon Russia due to its reliance on it for oil and gas. (More than a third of oil imported into Germany are from Russia.) Putin knows that and he explicitly spoke about it during the latest presidential Q&A session.

That being said, I think that Vladimir Putin is smart enough not to evoke vehement hostility from NATO and the rest of the world, but pinch them slowly and irritatingly. Hence, I do not think he will try to absorb the whole of Ukraine, yet.

(26-04-2014, 10:57 PM)corydorus Wrote: Personally i don't really care significantly how US or Europe do it. We need to be pragmatic. They are still much better of the evils.

Wow! I'm simply amazed to put it mildly.

F**k the EU

If US and its allies can agitate a population and disposed of a democratically elected representative / government, how much lower do you think they will stoop to?

How would you feel as a citizen if US tries to support/run any opposition party in Singapore if they think / feel PAP is acting contrary to its interests?

Thank you all for the rich discussions in analysing what Putin and Russia may do!

There seems to be a consensus that the situation will/should not escalate as it does harm to all parties involved (be it Russia, Europe or US). The party that may benefit from this seems to be China (hm.....I don't remember China having any official comments on Ukraine situation).

However, I think that we can't discount it from happening just because it is lose-lose for all. Like it was mentioned that Nationalistic feelings (paired with seemingly weak responses from NATO) within Russia may prompt Putin to do the "improbable". Somehow, I get the impression that NATO was caught off-guard when Russia annex Crimea.

So how would you hedge it (besides keeping a war chest to invest when armed conflicts between Russia and NATO happens)?

Thiock Wrote:Thank you all for the rich discussions in analysing what Putin and Russia may do! There seems to be a consensus that the situation will/should not escalate as it does harm to all parties involved (be it Russia, Europe or US). The party that may benefit from this seems to be China (hm.....I don't remember China having any official comments on Ukraine situation). However, I think that we can't discount it from happening just because it is lose-lose for all. Like it was mentioned that Nationalistic feelings (paired with seemingly weak responses from NATO) within Russia may prompt Putin to do the "improbable". Somehow, I get the impression that NATO was caught off-guard when Russia annex Crimea. So how would you hedge it (besides keeping a war chest to invest when armed conflicts between Russia and NATO happens)?

Buy the russian index RSX

Invest in companies in the defense industry.

I learnt that hard way that in our world, there is no such thing as morally correct or incorrect. As long as enough people can benefit from it, other people will learn to look the other way and leave you to cry and suffer alone. And if you whine about your injustice, people will simply see you as a crybaby and ostracize you.

Nearly all people in the world only have one moral value - the value of pragmatism. The normal rules can be followed as long as they don't threaten your own livelihood or survival.

Invest in the defense industry if you think war will break out. I made good money during the Gulf Wars.

(26-04-2014, 12:08 PM)Thiock Wrote: Dear All,

I would like to find out from fellow valuebuddies, what will you do (in terms of investing or rebalancing your portfolio) if Ukraine's situation escalates (e.g Russia continues to annex other Eastern parts of Ukraine despite sanctions from the West)? What could be some of the ways or strategies to minimise the impacts or even gain from it (though seems morally incorrect )

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/worl...83722.html

Thank you!

i think you don't fool around with Russia. In the past they had shot down even commercial plane which flew into their air space.

(26-04-2014, 10:15 PM)HitandRun Wrote: P.S. The last time I checked, US is still importing natural gas and crude oil. I have no idea who gave the politicians the silly notion that Europe can rely on imports from America instead of Russia.....

Off the top my head US NG price is lowest in the world and they will be finally allow NG export in 2015, though oil export is still largely banned. Buffett was hurt by US NG bet through Energy Future Holdings

I had the impression that US is now energy independent, but I could be wrong that it is a projection, and on the way to crude independent

(27-04-2014, 11:19 AM)waiyip Wrote:

(26-04-2014, 06:23 PM)freedom Wrote: Ask yourself, how much can Putin win by going further into Ukraine?

Yes, he might win the whole Ukraine. He will lose enormous economic value, possible his ruling of Russia. How much support will he get when most of the people are starving because of some nationalistic view?

He will lose the oil and gas revenue in Europe, replacing with lower pricing from China. Russia can't import from most of the countries in the world.

Russia are not in need of oil. Instead it exports oil to Europe and parts of Asia.

I do not think Russia will lose much economic value. Putin's plan on stranglehold of Europe started in his first presidential term in the early 2000s.

He built all the natural gas pipelines from Russia and ramify into tentacles into the European countries, inducing them to be dependent on Russia for natural gas.

If you read more about the Crimea crisis, major economic power in EU such as Germany were reluctant to impose sanction upon Russia due to its reliance on it for oil and gas. (More than a third of oil imported into Germany are from Russia.) Putin knows that and he explicitly spoke about it during the latest presidential Q&A session.

That being said, I think that Vladimir Putin is smart enough not to evoke vehement hostility from NATO and the rest of the world, but pinch them slowly and irritatingly. Hence, I do not think he will try to absorb the whole of Ukraine, yet.

Putin is seizing the day... he saw Obama's impotence in Syria and EU inaction. He is a very shrewd politician, almost a class of his own in the face of these new leaders except for Merkel, he will be maximising the gain from this. He already maximised his political capital with an open challenge to credit his salary into the banks that US sanctioned which arguably cost him little wealth, but speaks big on his challenge as well as morale booster to his team that he is with them. This is not a guy to mess with.

Which makes Putin dangerous isn't it ? This guy will bully his way out when he can. Shoot down plane as he likes.
Grab land as he wishes.

What did the Chinese do. Nothing. Why no one criticizes them ?

Despite self interests often at play, Euro or US do keep him in checks which is align to common interests. The world would be a terrible place imo without them. Is not surprising most of the world sided USA/Europe though not on everything.

secret of the seven sisters

See for yourselves interesting video, namely episode 3 documentary about oil in capsian seas and the balance of power.

the rest of the episodes provides background how all this oil conflict started way back in 1928 and ongoing up till today this is about anglo-western oil corporations for nearly 100 years wresting control and plundering other people oil resources all over the world over decades they played and replayed this game over and over time and again won and lost competing for this highly profitable resources. Forget about berkshire hathaway, forget about gold this is what we should be investing in.

it may not be putin that is dangerous but rather the Americans are the ones. maybe in the 80's the russians and communists were the bogey men but these issues today and yesterday are about oil nothing else, oil from capsian sea that travels over land route to europe that goes thru georgia and ukraine and that's what the americans trying to do is to grab control of this lucrative land route by undermining russian influence in this area.