HDB resale prices fall 1.6%, private home prices dip 1.3%

(26-04-2014, 10:57 PM)chialc88 Wrote: I hope the current generation can support this.

I fear that just moment before GE2016:
"Sir, my property value is dropping every month, what are you going to do about it?"

PAP better has a good answer to this.

(not a call to buy or sell)

Love Compassion


A Life not Reflected is a Life not Worth Living.

The answer could be simply import more FTs. Better have some rental income to hedge the ever-rising living cost here.

More FTs means loss of jobs for Singaporean.

Look at 2008 GFC, no one ( when i say no one i mean majority) really complains against the gov for income, stock or property losses. Is only those who are vested that trying to smoke up the fear.

It is very unlikely that govt will allow property market to "crash". This has been made very clear in Tharman's speeches. The most they will allow is an orderly stabilization of prices, probably 5 to 10% drop over the next few years.

For most waiting on sidelines to jump in to cash in on big crashes might be disappointed.

Agreed. I doubt will see 2008 crash too. You need to have crisis or recession to cause that. Since is an engineered plan 10-20% are within realm of possibility.

Never say never. Much like the runaway prices and cooling measure, it took so many rounds to cool the market off.
Similarly, it will take more than lifting the curbs to stop a rapidly sinking property market if it happens.

When the drop in prices accelerates, fear sets in property investors. Add rising interest rates and a large supply, the picture does not look too rosy. At current prices, the rental yield is quite pathetic for nearly all types of property. Those who think that prices will fall slightly/government will step in should really re-look their property portfolio and stress test it. History says property would crash(or drop significantly) after a period of boom. A matter of time before it goes much lower....and a matter of time again before it recovers again.

Looking at the private residential property index. (20yr index)
The pace and magnitude of price appreciation is almost exactly inversely symmetrical to the pace and magnitude of price depreciation.
However the index will bottom out at a level higher than the previous low. (probably due to effects of inflation)

P.S. I do have stake in properties. But mostly are for own use.
Not too worried about the rise and fall. It does present opportunities at the turn of each cycle.
Overall I am property neutral whether rise or fall.

(28-04-2014, 12:03 AM)Big Toe Wrote: Never say never. Much like the runaway prices and cooling measure, it took so many rounds to cool the market off.
Similarly, it will take more than lifting the curbs to stop a rapidly sinking property market if it happens.

When the drop in prices accelerates, fear sets in property investors. Add rising interest rates and a large supply, the picture does not look too rosy. At current prices, the rental yield is quite pathetic for nearly all types of property. Those who think that prices will fall slightly/government will step in should really re-look their property portfolio and stress test it. History says property would crash(or drop significantly) after a period of boom. A matter of time before it goes much lower....and a matter of time again before it recovers again.

Buy & Hold in any investment doesn't work as well as B&H FH property. Why the very rich even B&H just marsh land for generations to come. They have the money, the power and the visions for their next generation, next, next generation. They know fiat money is not really an asset that can hold through generations.
Wealth does not keep through 3 generations may be a myth to some very Powerful & Rich family.
So much for legacy and us (the ordinary working class).

T,
Suppose we realized that know that wealth does not keep thru 3 generations, what should we do?

Still insist to buy FH?

Love Compassion


A Life not Reflected is a Life not Worth Living.

(28-04-2014, 08:51 AM)Temperament Wrote:

(28-04-2014, 12:03 AM)Big Toe Wrote: Never say never. Much like the runaway prices and cooling measure, it took so many rounds to cool the market off.
Similarly, it will take more than lifting the curbs to stop a rapidly sinking property market if it happens.

When the drop in prices accelerates, fear sets in property investors. Add rising interest rates and a large supply, the picture does not look too rosy. At current prices, the rental yield is quite pathetic for nearly all types of property. Those who think that prices will fall slightly/government will step in should really re-look their property portfolio and stress test it. History says property would crash(or drop significantly) after a period of boom. A matter of time before it goes much lower....and a matter of time again before it recovers again.

Buy & Hold in any investment doesn't work as well as B&H FH property. Why the very rich even B&H just marsh land for generations to come. They have the money, the power and the visions for their next generation, next, next generation. They know fiat money is not really an asset that can hold through generations.
Wealth does not keep through 3 generations may be a myth to some very Powerful & Rich family.
So much for legacy and us (the ordinary working class).

Downsides of B&H FH strategy.

- Land acq by Govt (British & PAP Govt)
- Property tax
- Estate tax (repealed already in SG)
- Financing costs

People like to tell stories of ancestors owning big pieces of land in SG. If their parents held on to some, they 米桶 liao. Thats wishing thinking coz most people cannot get pass the downsides to hold on their land.

If you want real income redistribution, bring back estate taxes.

The only successful strategy of holding on land in SG is to have a operating business to provide cashflow, while sitting on the land. Like CK Tang.