Bright prospects? China's rooftop solar goal looks too ambitious

A notable news for those vested in solar power related stocks...

China vows to quadruple solar generating capacity by 2015

BEIJING/HONG KONG – China aims to more than quadruple solar power generating capacity to 35 gigawatts by 2015 in an apparent bid to ease a massive glut in the domestic solar panel industry.

The target has been stated previously by the State Grid, which manages the country’s electricity distribution, but now has the official backing of the State Council, the country’s cabinet and its top governing body.

China will add around 10 GW per year from 2013-2015, the State Council said in a statement.

http://www.todayonline.com/business/chin...acity-2015

Solar power sector has been struggling and some even file for bankruptcy. Will the solar power sector set for a turnaround? I have started to follow it. Any view from buddies?

(not vested in any solar power counter)

Bright prospects? China's rooftop solar goal looks too ambitious
28 Feb 2014 06:56
BEIJING's goal of tripling solar power from small-scale operations such as rooftop panels looks overly ambitious, risking disappointment for investors who have bid up shares in Chinese solar panel makers in the past year.

China has a target of installing 14.5 gigawatts (GW) of solar generating capacity this year - close to Finland's entire power capacity.

Of that, it expects 8GW from so-called distributed solar, which includes rooftop panels and other small installations. The aim is to redress an imbalance caused by a glut of large solar farms in China's vast western region, where there is plenty of sunshine but not enough infrastructure to harness and transmit the power to the densely populated south and east.

But unless China promises bigger subsidies and financing support, and streamlines the process of acquiring rooftop rights, companies say the rooftop installations just aren't worth it. "The economics of distributed solar are in doubt," said Wang Xiangfu, chief executive of Hong Kong-listed solar panel maker and solar power developer Shunfeng Photovoltaic International Ltd. "The goal is very difficult to achieve unless the state raises subsidy," said Wang, echoing the view of officials at numerous major Chinese solar makers and developers interviewed by Reuters over the past few weeks.

Even state-run media have cast doubt on the government's projections for distributed solar.
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Ref: usiness Times Breaking News

I don't think solar power makes much economic sense barring a major breakthrough in energy storage. All this investment into a project which is unsuitable for base load generation and leaves capital equipment exposed to the elements.

I think other developments such as Lockheed Martin's foray into nuclear fusion have better potential.

(28-02-2014, 10:42 AM)Clement Wrote: I don't think solar power makes much economic sense barring a major breakthrough in energy storage. All this investment into a project which is unsuitable for base load generation and leaves capital equipment exposed to the elements.

I think other developments such as Lockheed Martin's foray into nuclear fusion have better potential.

Nuclear fusion has the same characteristic as medical expenses. No matter how much the effort of "reassuring", people will continue to worry about it, not only concern, but fear

It might not become a main source of energy supply, but a reliable supplementary source.

I recalled there was a thread discussed on solar power in this forum, but yet to find it out.

I think we have to understand that China has a completely different motivation for pursuing solar - it is not worth pursuing it economically but definitely worth it from a security point of view.

Any country aiming to be a world power will need to secure its energy sources, and China knows that military wise it will take >60 years to have a realistic chance of catching up to the US (i'm not sure if it is even possible in the long run). Hence oil from the Middle East is not certain, esp when it is sold in USD and US keeping a presence there, and China is certainly trying to keep Russia and South China Sea as its alternatives.

Coal is plentiful but the pollution is killing its people - so urgently China needs clean sources of energy in plentiful amounts not denominated in USD as a security backup. So it only makes sense for them to pour money into Xinjiang where the solar panels don't rust and sunlight is available all day round/all year long; and in the meantime Trina+Suntech are all dropping.

Not a bad thing though - i think solar is a great idea but no idea how much it will cost and how long it will take to develop it til economically feasible. Someone else is willing to burn money so why not?

(28-02-2014, 11:07 AM)AlphaQuant Wrote: Someone else is willing to burn money so why not?

I think this sums up the workings of the industry rather well.

(15-07-2013, 04:53 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: A notable news for those vested in solar power related stocks...

China vows to quadruple solar generating capacity by 2015

BEIJING/HONG KONG – China aims to more than quadruple solar power generating capacity to 35 gigawatts by 2015 in an apparent bid to ease a massive glut in the domestic solar panel industry.

The target has been stated previously by the State Grid, which manages the country’s electricity distribution, but now has the official backing of the State Council, the country’s cabinet and its top governing body.

China will add around 10 GW per year from 2013-2015, the State Council said in a statement.

http://www.todayonline.com/business/chin...acity-2015

I merged a related post into this thread.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0b2fd4d0-a3ce-11..._i_referer=

(05-03-2014, 07:50 AM)minimax Wrote: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0b2fd4d0-a3ce-11..._i_referer=

Instead of ONLY the link, you might want to put up a summary, or an excerpt of it. It will make it much more readable.

Furthermore, the link seems only valid for registered user.

Regards
Moderator

May be this is the one referred in previous post. Previously it was the coal company with loan, not the solar company with listed corporate bond... The NPLs "bubble" seems busting...

It also showed the status of solar sector in China now...

DJ China Corporate Bond Market Likely to See First Default -- Update

By Lingling Wei and Wayne Ma
BEIJING--A Chinese solar company said it won't be able to repay investors all the interest due on a bond Friday in what may be the first ever default in China's $1.5 trillion publicly traded corporate bond market.

Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology Co. Ltd, which makes solar cells and panels, announced late Tuesday that it won't be able to repay about 89.8 million yuan ($14.6 million) interest on a 1 billion yuan bond issued two years ago.

The company is scheduled to make the interest payment on Friday.

"Due to various uncontrollable factors, until now the company has only raised 4 million yuan to pay the interest," Shanghai Chaori said in the statement, without further elaborating.
...
Ref: Dow Jones Newswires