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Share buyback will definitely sustain the price, but at what price is considered attractive enough for LSH to enter the market to buy back ? He could have called an EGM and done so last year to bolster investors confidence if he considered the stock to be undervalued.
2014 results will be uninspiring considering the belated launch of Robin Residences, cooling measures still in place and depletion of its land bank. Assuming there is a good response to the sales launch of Robin Residences in June, FY15 will definitely see an improved performance over FY14 in terms of revenue and profit recognition.
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22-02-2014, 07:55 PM
(This post was last modified: 22-02-2014, 08:18 PM by CY09.)
Revenue recognised for FY14 may be higher than FY15. I remembered revenue for private property is recognised by its stage of progression and not everything on TOP. In addition, Robin Residence is expected to TOP only in 2016. Fellow people may correct me as I am not quite sure how revenue is recognised for ppty developments
Secondly, I maintain my view that approx. 70% units of Waterwoods will be sold upon TOP UNLESS Sing Holdings/UE do more aggressive marketing. In my personal view, I am not really keen in mgmt. using more of shareholder's money to buy more land.This mgmt. is not that good and shareholder friendly; Failure in understanding the EC market, having to raise cash in 2009 "to fund" its property development, Sitting on Robin Residence for too long.
Reason why I invested is that its an asset play who is sitting in too deep a discount to its RNAV. (hoping the company converts all its assets to cash and being stuck with too much cash, return it to shareholders or delist)
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Yes, revenue recognition is based on percentage of completion method for residential properties, unlike ECs, industrial & commercial properties.
Sing holdings has started construction in Q2 or Q3 last year. We will need the property experts in this forum to project the estimated percentage completed from Q2(2013) to Q4(2014). If it's going to TOP in 2016, my view is that more revenue would be booked in 2015 & 2016 than 2014. Assuming 90% of Robin Residences can be sold out by TOP, I estimate it can achieve a NP of $59 million to be spread out from 2014 to 2016 (assuming $2400 psf sales price and 20% net margin). If my computation is wrong, please correct me as I have rudimentary knowledge on finance stuff.
The only investment merit for this company is the steep discount to RNAV (now it's already trading at a 35% discount to its current NAV). The other catalyst to drive the stock has to be higher profits (not lower profits). The price was holding well in 1st half of last year due to higher profits, but gradually dropped owing to the weak 2nd half results.
For sure, H1(2014) results will pale in comparison to H1(2013) results. One can only hope for a good turnaround in H2(2014) as compared to the 1st half results.
LSH is probably folding his arms, waiting for the opportune time to strike. Based on past records, he would purchase shares in the open market ever year. It's just a matter of when, not IF. His last purchase at around $0.43 was in Feb 2013, fully aware that the 1st half results would be good.
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Top 5 most HATED undervalued stocks?
hee hee.........
patience........
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Quote:hee hee.........
patience........
Hmm, It's been 4 years. The share price is going nowhere, it's even under water for me.
Probably will be like this in the next 4 years.
As specuvestor often said : asset, business, structure.
Asset => excellent
Business => ??
Structure => ?????
<still vested, much reduced now, not a call to buy or sell>
Specuvestor: Asset - Business - Structure.