The Next Big Crash - Are You Prepared?

(09-02-2014, 02:30 PM)smallcaps Wrote:

(08-02-2014, 04:46 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(07-02-2014, 12:55 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Indeed market timing is not about catching top or bottom... it's an impossible task. But not timing it is even more ridiculous becuase value investing tells you what it is worth now, never when it will be worth. That's why value traps are a consistent reminder.

Fact is even if we say we don't time the market, the management of businesses have to do timing all the time, from hedging, to capex spending to staff and marketing costs. In other words we buy into companies inherently believing that management good track record, including timing, can be extrapolated.

My definition of market timing, is speculative move solely base on market price trends. I agree with you that it's an impossible task to success consistently.

I don't see any ridiculous not to time the market price. It is an underlying assumption for value investing i.e. the market price will catch-up with IV over long term. If we have done right on IV, and intent to hold long term, it should be OK not to time the market price, unless the assumption is wrong.

Hedging, if done right, is to avoid the risk of timing the market, right?

Ya also find it confusing to call it market timing. Its more like business timing as described by philip fischer. Significants and probable events that might act as catalysts.

Intrinsic value with no catalysts are called value traps IMHO there is no such thing as "it will catch-up over the long-term". As Keynes remarked... over the long term we are dead... and it is a stark reminder of how true it is with the passing of Peter Cundill. He was lucky that some UOB structure value was realised because of MAS forcing banks to unwind. Wee would have spit on his grave as per he did on UIS.

And of course there is the Synear type of scenario where the major shareholder is the only one laughing.

(12-02-2014, 03:25 PM)Layman A Wrote:

(12-02-2014, 02:34 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(12-02-2014, 01:19 PM)Layman A Wrote:

(12-02-2014, 12:44 PM)tau281290 Wrote: Mobius Says Emerging-Market Selloff to Deepen on Outflows - Feb 7, 2014 10:47 PM GMT+0800

Mobius Says Emerging-Market Rout Near End as Valuations Lure - Feb 12, 2014 12:58 AM GMT+0800

Another classic coming in. This guy is a genius. In fact, I became quite bullish right after he said selloff to deepen.

Haha, may be we can take him as a yardstick for Reverse Market Indicator ?

When he say SELL , we BUY !
When he say BUY , we SELL !

He is consistently advocating BUY and BUY recently. Are you selling now?

Actually when he say SELL, I BUY.
Now, when he say BUY, I am tempted to BUY more !

Agree... IMHO Mobius is one of the most overrated salesman masquarading as fund manager

(12-02-2014, 06:32 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Intrinsic value with no catalysts are called value traps IMHO there is no such thing as "it will catch-up over the long-term". As Keynes remarked... over the long term we are dead... and it is a stark reminder of how true it is with the passing of Peter Cundill. He was lucky that some UOB structure value was realised because of MAS forcing banks to unwind. Wee would have spit on his grave as per he did on UIS.

And of course there is the Synear type of scenario where the major shareholder is the only one laughing.

Well, may I interpret that you mean the statement from Benjamin Graham below is wrong? Or maybe I should use long run instead of long term?

"In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine"

(12-02-2014, 06:35 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Agree... IMHO Mobius is one of the most overrated salesman masquarading as fund manager

Well, I respect your opinion, but not sure the ground of the opinion?

Base on his track records stated in wikipedia, I found no clue on "salesman masquarading as fund manager"?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Mobius

No one can always 100% predict the market correctly, always good to stay vested, % based on your comfort level. Sleep well and collect your $$ well ^_^

(12-02-2014, 08:46 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(12-02-2014, 06:32 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Intrinsic value with no catalysts are called value traps IMHO there is no such thing as "it will catch-up over the long-term". As Keynes remarked... over the long term we are dead... and it is a stark reminder of how true it is with the passing of Peter Cundill. He was lucky that some UOB structure value was realised because of MAS forcing banks to unwind. Wee would have spit on his grave as per he did on UIS.

And of course there is the Synear type of scenario where the major shareholder is the only one laughing.

Well, may I interpret that you mean the statement from Benjamin Graham below is wrong? Or maybe I should use long run instead of long term?

"In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine"

Well Ben Graham also said this later in his life, emphasizing that as investors overall got more sophisticated, real value investments are very hard to come by.

"I am no longer an advocate of elaborate techniques of security analysis in order to find superior value opportunities. This was a rewarding activity, say, 40 years ago, when our textbook "Graham and Dodd" was first published; but the situation has changed a great deal since then. In the old days any well-trained security analyst could do a good professional job of selecting undervalued issues through detailed studies; but in the light of the enormous amount of research now being carried on, I doubt whether in most cases such extensive efforts will generate sufficiently superior selections to justify their cost. To that very limited extent, I'm on the side of the "efficient market" school of thought now generally accepted by the professors."

(12-02-2014, 12:44 PM)tau281290 Wrote: Mobius Says Emerging-Market Selloff to Deepen on Outflows - Feb 7, 2014 10:47 PM GMT+0800

Mobius Says Emerging-Market Rout Near End as Valuations Lure - Feb 12, 2014 12:58 AM GMT+0800

Another classic coming in. This guy is a genius. In fact, I became quite bullish right after he said selloff to deepen.

Someone should make a song out of analysts, fund managers, & stock market commentators' future predictions based on a song like this ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6IQ_FOCE6I

haha

(12-02-2014, 08:46 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(12-02-2014, 06:32 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Intrinsic value with no catalysts are called value traps IMHO there is no such thing as "it will catch-up over the long-term". As Keynes remarked... over the long term we are dead... and it is a stark reminder of how true it is with the passing of Peter Cundill. He was lucky that some UOB structure value was realised because of MAS forcing banks to unwind. Wee would have spit on his grave as per he did on UIS.

And of course there is the Synear type of scenario where the major shareholder is the only one laughing.

Well, may I interpret that you mean the statement from Benjamin Graham below is wrong? Or maybe I should use long run instead of long term?

"In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine"

I have stated many times that this statement is the most apt description of the market, but that does not mean it is unequivocally correct. Decisions are not made by some arcade "market force" like the Force in star wars It is made by human beings with greed and fear but in aggregate believing that they will make the right decision over the long term, which is also the basic tenent for democracy. But the catch is this: there are times when personal agenda overrides the aggregate, and we see it in our debate of socialism vs capitalism. You dont have to search far but only need to see SGX listed stocks and find numerous stocks that will unlikely reach their potential value because the humans making the decisions, not the OPMI, have a personal agenda. That's where activism and vulture funds come in to force changes.

That is the 3rd structural layer that I keep talking about. Value guys make the mistake of always just focusing on the first asset layer and disregarding the business and strcutural layers.

(12-02-2014, 08:51 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(12-02-2014, 06:35 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Agree... IMHO Mobius is one of the most overrated salesman masquarading as fund manager

Well, I respect your opinion, but not sure the ground of the opinion?

Base on his track records stated in wikipedia, I found no clue on "salesman masquarading as fund manager"?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Mobius

Based on the published figures/ papers many S-chips looks very cheap also with no hint of "snakeoil" as well

I have observed and respect many managers from Bill Miller to Kyle Bass and of course Buffett, but Mobius record is not top of the list. I wish you the best if you buy their emerging markets funds. 路遥知马力 which is similarly why I have higher regards for Paul Tudor than Paulson.

(13-02-2014, 12:52 PM)specuvestor Wrote:

(12-02-2014, 08:51 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(12-02-2014, 06:35 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Agree... IMHO Mobius is one of the most overrated salesman masquarading as fund manager

Well, I respect your opinion, but not sure the ground of the opinion?

Base on his track records stated in wikipedia, I found no clue on "salesman masquarading as fund manager"?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Mobius

Based on the published figures/ papers many S-chips looks very cheap also with no hint of "snakeoil" as well

I have observed and respect many managers from Bill Miller to Kyle Bass and of course Buffett, but Mobius record is not top of the list. I wish you the best if you buy their emerging markets funds. 路遥知马力 which is similarly why I have higher regards for Paul Tudor than Paulson.

Thanks for the detail of your observation. I might not agree, but will definitely take note of it.

Major Markets around the world are looking at each other for cue on the direction to go with. All running out of excuses for both bear or bull at the moment.