The Next Big Crash - Are You Prepared?

(03-02-2014, 10:02 AM)felixleong Wrote: STI falls below 3000, fear all over the market...
be greedy when others are fearful!

I dont smell any fear. Selling vol is low. Even pennies can still turn very green.

(03-02-2014, 11:00 AM)Bibi Wrote:

(03-02-2014, 10:02 AM)felixleong Wrote: STI falls below 3000, fear all over the market...
be greedy when others are fearful!

I dont smell any fear. Selling vol is low. Even pennies can still turn very green.

2990 is the psyphological support, not 3000.

This CNY, I haven't heard people talk stocks yet. Just a few talks on property. Guess fear rules.

I've never seen a market so dead after CNY. Felix, I agree 10% is a good guage. I would prefer a gap down of 50+ points will prove an entry opportunity. Somehow I feel counter specific are dropping faster than the index. Anyone sharing similar sentiment?

Its really been a disappointing start.

Lets say for an investor who is 50% vested and 50% in cash
he can separate his cash into 5 portions, 50% divide by 5

for every 10% decline in the market, he uses 1 portion to buy the index
I think overall if he successfully uses up 3 portions or more, he would make quite a decent long term return isn't it?

(03-02-2014, 11:33 AM)DP28 Wrote: I've never seen a market so dead after CNY. Felix, I agree 10% is a good guage. I would prefer a gap down of 50+ points will prove an entry opportunity. Somehow I feel counter specific are dropping faster than the index. Anyone sharing similar sentiment?

Its really been a disappointing start.

I don't bet ONLY on market crash, but a "crash" on individual stock, and it seems opportunities are available.

I have the same view that some quality stocks did drop much faster than the index.

I think investors in this forum are not fearful, because most that read or post in this forum are sophisticated investors.

I think the typical aunties and uncles are fearful, they don't seem interested in purchasing blue chips at all.

STI had a high of 3,464 last year and currently its down over 12% from that high. Technically we can call it a bear.

I have been encouraging people around me to buy(non-sophisticated investors) but 9 out of 10 of them will tell me that market is weak and tapering will cause the market to decline further (fear).

However I would still like to encourage a balanced approach, just slowly buy up quality stocks as the market slowly declines. Currently our local banks are trading at only 11 times earnings. Given a choice of buying ST engg or SGX at 20 times earning or paying half the price for the same earnings on local banks, I would rather take my shot at the banks.

I think its very difficult to go wrong buying blue chips at such valuations considering the histroical PE of the STI is 15 times earnings, but yeah of course if can get cheaper the better la hahaha

(03-02-2014, 11:47 AM)felixleong Wrote: I think investors in this forum are not fearful, because most that read or post in this forum are sophisticated investors.

I think the typical aunties and uncles are fearful, they don't seem interested in purchasing blue chips at all.

STI had a high of 3,464 last year and currently its down over 12% from that high. Technically we can call it a bear.

I have been encouraging people around me to buy(non-sophisticated investors) but 9 out of 10 of them will tell me that market is weak and tapering will cause the market to decline further (fear).

However I would still like to encourage a balanced approach, just slowly buy up quality stocks as the market slowly declines. Currently our local banks are trading at only 11 times earnings. Given a choice of buying ST engg or SGX at 20 times earning or paying half the price for the same earnings on local banks, I would rather take my shot at the banks.

I think its very difficult to go wrong buying blue chips at such valuations considering the histroical PE of the STI is 15 times earnings, but yeah of course if can get cheaper the better la hahaha

Typical all over the world is BHSL lol.
At times when fear or greed takes over my emotions, i am tempted too.

(03-02-2014, 11:33 AM)DP28 Wrote: I've never seen a market so dead after CNY. Felix, I agree 10% is a good guage. I would prefer a gap down of 50+ points will prove an entry opportunity. Somehow I feel counter specific are dropping faster than the index. Anyone sharing similar sentiment?

Its really been a disappointing start.

Any examples of those counters?

(03-02-2014, 11:33 AM)DP28 Wrote: Its really been a disappointing start.

On the bright side. Sti is one of the best performing index this year as it didn't drop much compared to others indices. : ).