The Next Big Crash - Are You Prepared?

(25-01-2014, 09:58 AM)felixleong Wrote: Woke up this morning and saw the US market down 2% overnight!
I'm quite taken by surprised, whats happening man?

china pmi <50 => bad
argentina/turkish/russian ccys all dumped (argentina peso lost 14% in 2 days) => Emerging economies fears
fomc next week=>uncertainty.

it's sell all and talk later - agree next week will be ugly.

yup, blue chips are gonna get sold down hard.
Good time for some shopping if the STI comes near 3000 level

all the smart money was going to europe towards end of last year from the interviews of quite a few fund managers i read on bloomberg, so if the money gonna flow out from emerging economies where will it flow to? Headlines on european recovery seems to have lessened a lot recently.

A bit off topic but which blue chips would you guys be looking to pickup when the index eventually hits below 3000?

(25-01-2014, 11:07 AM)felixleong Wrote: yup, blue chips are gonna get sold down hard.
Good time for some shopping if the STI comes near 3000 level

My bet is that pennies will be sold down even harder as traders take profits and cut losses before CNY. There is too much risks and uncertainty. The run up in the recent weeks had rose past ahead of fundamentals.

VIX spiked 31% meaning traders and funds were caught off guard by the selling. Watch the rupees, rupiah, rinngit and yen for heightening signs of risk aversion. Gold prices might even rise on Mon.

Not sure about when and how the crash will look like. Yes, it does "look" very likely that it will happen soon.

But right now, I am seeing very very attractive counters on the HKSE and I feel very tempted to enter.

In fact, I have already entered a significant portion of my cash last week. That counter has since fallen quite significantly after I entered, and honestly, I have never been so excited over a fallen stock that I have already bought.

I think every value investor right now should have the same concern. "Should I liquidate my entire portfolio at this point in time"..

Looks brutal. Just my opinion

(27-01-2014, 10:49 AM)DP28 Wrote: I think every value investor right now should have the same concern. "Should I liquidate my entire portfolio at this point in time"..

Looks brutal. Just my opinion

I am actually thinking of the question, "should I sell this undervalued stock for this other stock that look even more undervalued". Decisions decisions..

(27-01-2014, 10:53 AM)Wildreamz Wrote:

(27-01-2014, 10:49 AM)DP28 Wrote: I think every value investor right now should have the same concern. "Should I liquidate my entire portfolio at this point in time"..

Looks brutal. Just my opinion

I am actually thinking of the question, "should I sell this undervalued stock for this other stock that look even more undervalued". Decisions decisions..

Yes! thats true. Looking to get rid of my defensive for higher beta value counters. But it seems alot of negativity in the market.. May sell and hold cash first.

(27-01-2014, 10:53 AM)Wildreamz Wrote:

(27-01-2014, 10:49 AM)DP28 Wrote: I think every value investor right now should have the same concern. "Should I liquidate my entire portfolio at this point in time"..

Looks brutal. Just my opinion

I am actually thinking of the question, "should I sell this undervalued stock for this other stock that look even more undervalued". Decisions decisions..

To add-on with mine.

The thinkings now are which stocks to switch out, which ones to switch in, and when??? Decisions and decisions indeed

Turnover of capital will hike in the next few weeks, or months...

My thinking is is as follows :

The base portfolio I am not selling.

The recently 1 stock I added I am thinking if I should sell for a profit and then add later which is not my 1st choice, but rather shall I keep these and add to them later IF they drop even further .

The other two stocks that I bought recently which are below the buying price now, wondering if I should add to them now or add more later.

Decisions......Decisions....