Forbes Article - Why Singapore's Economy Is Heading For An Iceland-Style Meltdown

(16-01-2014, 04:34 PM)ValueBeliever Wrote: Why is OCBC so desperate in seeking out HK bank?

Well, my likely answer is to seek opportunities near the region, rather than forced to take refuge.

(16-01-2014, 05:00 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(16-01-2014, 04:34 PM)ValueBeliever Wrote: Why is OCBC so desperate in seeking out HK bank?

Well, my likely answer is to seek opportunities near the region, rather than forced to take refuge.

Well, has UOB does anything oversea except a little in Malaysia? What's the Botak (father or son) thinking? China too "dangerous to venture"?
By the way i had vested in DBS and OCBC but not UOB before. i don't know why leh?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo...e-edition/

QUOTE: "On another note, I want to re-emphasize that I am not necessarily calling for an immediate popping of Singapore’s bubble. As I stated in my report, the U.S. Federal Reserve may maintain its zero interest rate policy until as late as 2017, which means that Singapore’s interest rate will also stay at virtually zero for the same length of time. While this means that the ultimate popping of Singapore’s bubble may be a few years away, it also means that the city-state’s asset and credit bubbles are likely to grow even larger and more threatening than they currently are, all while they are helping to foster an illusion of prosperity. " QUOTE

I see a 3 - 5 years expiry date minimally.
Consider that the last crash was 2009, it is a fairly safe bet that a crash will happen again in 7 - 9 years time, if not sooner.
So, his job is at least safe for now.
His caveats are bullet proof.

anyways, just to add, SG interest rate has been that low for most of the past 14 years.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/singapore/interest-rate

I was stunned... we were at 20% interest rate before!! ('_' ")

most of the old flats were in mature estates..if many got sers by the govt in a bid to reduce supply in the hdb market, I wonder where these old hdb residents will be asked to move to...besides marina bay suites' vast big of land in the marina bay south or maybe move to punggol or sembawang or yishun?

I do think that residential property is heading for a steeper correction than what most people anticipate.
It may play out over a longer period of time.
It has always been a long way down after a peak is reached, this time made worse with the impending rate hike + record supply of houses.
Life will go on even if property corrects by 30%-40%, nearly all of us will still have our houses to stay in and decent food on our table.

There is not much going on for the local stock market as there is no earnings catalyst, most are fairly valued.
And there is nothing going on for property.(unless you wish to short it)
Now's the time to do nothing and start planning/saving up/ and preparing bullets for the next opportunity that may come our way.

for SERS you need to find the existing flat owners replacement flats somewhere near their present location which is not easy for matured estates.

and also I heard from a RC relative that some of those whose units got SERS have trouble keeping up with their housing payments which is not surprising because some might have opt for bigger replacement flats and some might be retirees or out of job.

(16-01-2014, 02:06 PM)yeokiwi Wrote:

(16-01-2014, 12:18 PM)kagemusha Wrote: Just on the point on housing alone.
80% of Singaporeans stays in HDB and we got to wait like 2-5 years to get the house....do you not think that if empty houses gets a 30% discount, they will sell like hot cakes.
Just need to tweak the rules and boom, the waiting list is shorten and all empty houses gone.
All these to be paid 20% down payment via CPF?? Doubt the writer know what CPF is.
Last I heard, the queue is still there.

There is also SERS. Basically, the gov is able to systematically transferred the residents of aging flats to new flats and in the process, reduce the supply in the market if they want to.
Singapore property market is unique in the sense that the gov is able to add, hold on and remove properties from the market with ease.

Quote:for SERS you need to find the existing flat owners replacement flats somewhere near their present location which is not easy for matured estates.

$50000 + a brand new ready-to-move-in 4-room flat in other towns for your old 3 room flat OR
-$50000 + wait-for-three-years small 4-room flat in the same town for your old 3 room flat.

At the end of the exercise, some of the residents will insist to stay and some will move.
If more than 30% is willing to move to new places, the supply will drop by about the same amount.

There are many variations that the gov can do simply because they are in control of the flat supply and PRICE directly unlike many other countries.

Govt is also doing reverse mortgage (with insurance component) on flats so they can take over the flat when the occupiers pass on. I think it is a great idea that should have been done long ago to solve the asset rich cash poor issue

(16-01-2014, 09:23 PM)kagemusha Wrote: anyways, just to add, SG interest rate has been that low for most of the past 14 years.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/singapore/interest-rate

I was stunned... we were at 20% interest rate before!! ('_' ")

Older folks will remember prime rate of 6% before AFC is common. Will be interesting how the new generation handle it when it comes