曾渊沧 Dr Chan Yan Chong

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#1
Dr YC Chan - 2 September 2013 newsletter:

In May this year, US Federal Reserve started talking about withdrawing from the markets. Singapore stock market subsequently tumbled in June, rebounded in July, and fell again in August. The market trend inSingapore was similar to that in US, but its stock performance was worse than in US and Hong Kong stocks.

Lately, Singapore is in the midst of the so called new Asian financial crisis.

Indon rupiahs; Thai bahts; Malaysian ringgits and Philippino pesos and stock markets have fallen sharply. Singapore market is affected by what is happening to all these neigbouring countries as capital is being withdrawnfrom this region.

However, I do not think the recent so called Asian financial crisis would be as disastrous as in 1997.


理由是新加坡正处於近日的所谓新亚洲金融风暴的内眼,近一段日子,印尼盾、泰 国铢、马来西亚零吉、菲律宾比索的币值都大幅下跌,股市也下跌,这些国家全是新加坡的邻国,新加坡股市很自然地会受到影响,资金从这整个地区撤出。

不过,我不认为目前的所谓新的亚洲金融风暴会像 1997 年那样的惨烈




The situation of the Asean countries and India is much better than it was in 1997. The values of the currencies of the Asean countries then were linked to US$. The economies of the Asean countries had been declining at the time whilst the US economy was booming. The US President Clinton was the first president who led the country to have budget surpluses since Wrold War II.

The exchange rate of the US$ to other major currencies appreciated; there was no reason for the values of the currencies of the comparatively weaker Asean countries to link to US$, thus opened up for the international crocodile George Soros to attack these currencies. Now the currencies of the Asean countries are free floating, with no internatinal crocodiles to snipe at. The recent fall of the currencies is a natural reaction, an orderly process without panic, a far cry from the tense situation when Indon President Suharto was being ousted then.

Besides, George soros learnt a lesson in 1998 from the then Malaysian Prime Mininster Mahathir Mohamad who immediately stopped free exchanges of Malaysian ringgits and banned Singapore from trading Malaysian stocks. All the international crocodiles’ deposits in Malaysia were freezed, and they suffered hefty losses as a result. Once beaten, twice shy, I believe these big crocodiles dare not over do it again; otherwise they might be trapped in thenet of their own making.

US stocks dipped further in August for fear of US market withdrawal bceome official in September.

There is nothing to worry about; it is going to happen sooner or later, in fact the sooner the better.


Market withdrawal offers a good OPPORTUNITY to Collect Stocks at Low levels.


退市是迟早要发生的事,早退好过迟退,退市正是趁低吸纳的好时机。

[Image: jbbcqyfbh3tvr3.png]



US will not withdraw from the markets before economic recovery, and will not do it to jeopardise its recovery. Thus, withdrawing from the markets is an indication of USeconomy is recovering and is therefore nothing to fear.

American soldiers might attack Syria was one of the reasons causing stock markets to fall in August.

But since 1991, Whenever US soldiers Went to War, the Stock markets went UP,

[Image: jAOEnjbNiaDQQ.png]

Dipped BEFORE the war started.

叙利亚可能遭到美军的攻击也是八月份股市下跌的理由之一,

但是,从 1991 年中东战争至今 ,每一次美军一出动,股市皆升

跌市只是在战争未开始时才出现。
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#2
On the contrary, most people will flee upon any sign of market correction.. Confused

Quote:Market withdrawal offers a good OPPORTUNITY to Collect Stocks at Low levels.

退市是迟早要发生的事,早退好过迟退,退市正是趁低吸纳的好时机。
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#3
Sadly, I have yet to master the virtue of Buy Low Sell High. Sad

However, we could emulate the correct mindset from experts gradually.Idea

问:要怎样才能不在股市中赔钱?
Question: How to Avoid Losing Money in the stock market?

答:老是有人问,為何他们在股市中总是赔钱?我告诉他们,错在他们是正常人!

Answer (Hu Li Yang): There are plenty of people who asked me why they usually lost money in the stock market? The reason is that they belong to the Normal people category.

[Image: jAyb4Yff3M2Gt.png]

我的投资原则是低买,正常人在股市裡不可能赚钱,只有不正常的人,才能赚钱,因為只有怪人才会买在最低点。

My investment philosophy is BUY Low, however, only Extraordinary or Weird people will earn money by Buying at the LOWEST price.

金融风暴时,正常人不敢进场,股市大好时,“他”才兴高采烈进场,结果买在最高点。

During the financial crisis, Normal people dare Not enter the stock market. In contrast, "they" will gladly enter the market when bull market is confirmed, ended up buying at the highest point.

[Image: jcqGrmusGJNVf.png]

因此,要战胜股市,就要变成不正常人。
To be successful in stock market, you need to become Extraordinary.

培养喜怒哀乐很重要,别人开心时,你要感到伤心,股市涨时,大家都在欢庆时,你应该提醒自己,可能有风险,

Emotional control is very crucial. When others are ecstatic, you need to feel gloomy.

When the stock market surge, everybody is celebrating, you need to remind yourself to be cautious of the probability of risk.


相反的,大家都在担心,你就要想,捡便宜的机会来了,所以是背道而驰

When others are Fearful, You need to possess the mindset that this is an opportunity for you to pickup bargain stocks by AVOIDING Herd Mentality.

[Image: jGfyZAmetF5pz.png]

http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/80908

(03-09-2013, 02:42 PM)Ray168 Wrote: On the contrary, most people will flee upon any sign of market correction.. Confused

Quote:Market withdrawal offers a good OPPORTUNITY to Collect Stocks at Low levels.

退市是迟早要发生的事,早退好过迟退,退市正是趁低吸纳的好时机。
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#4
曾渊沧:美国联储局什么时候退市?
Dr YC Chan : When will US Fed start the tapering?


http://www.cnfol.com 2013年09月23日 13:34 中金在线港股 


多谢美国联邦储备局在中秋节送上一份厚礼给全世界持有股票的股民。

9月18日,美国联邦储备局的议息结果是不退市、不加息、也不减买债券,依然每月印钞850亿美元买债券。联邦储备局于去年年底推出的QE3,威力无穷,因为QE3是无限QE,第一次QE与第二次QE,都有一个固定的金额,而QE3则每月印钞,不停的印,一直到叫停,退市为止,因此今年第一季,美国股市创历史新高。

今年五月,美国联邦储备局开始谈退市,谈了四个月仍未退市。这一回,全世界都认为一定会退市,温和的退市,股市也为退市做足心理准备。美国道琼斯指数在开会前已很接近历史高位,投资者可以接受温和的退市,现在不退市了,结果当然是火上加油,道琼斯也就一口气再创历史新高,亢奋极了。

轮到香港开市,在中秋节,中国A股休息停市的日子,唯一影响香港股市的外来因素当然是美股。因此,香港恒生指数也大幅上升,站上23500点之上,升了385点。

美国今年退市机会不大
Probability of US Tapering this year is low.

亢奋之后,投资者当然会问:几时退市?今年十月?十二月?
Investors will definitely ask: When will be the tapering occur? It's October this year? Or December?

股市里有很多的大鳄不停地兴风作浪,因此,不必多久,几时退市就会成为新的话题,新的炒作课题。上周末,美股就开始出现调整了。

我自己估计,既然九月不退市,今年退市的机会不大了,而且就算退市,也一定是极温和的退市,温和的退市是股市可以接受的。

According to my estimation, the chance of Fed tapering this year is low since no tapering measure is being implemented in September.

[Image: jgZiQj2W7kiPI.png]

Even though tapering occurs, it will be very mild, which is acceptable to the stock market.



[Image: jFW3eA47uEcOx.png]

这一次美国联邦储备局开会前夕,股市已上升,美股已接近历史高点。开会前夕,市场主流预测是会退市,温和的退市,从这个角度来看,美股今后的走势向好的机会很大。

现在我们应该关心的焦点应该是中国A股。



2008年11月,中国是全世界最早印钞票的国家,当年的4万亿基建,实际上就是中国式的QE。


到了2009年3月,美国才开始推出QE1,美国推出QE1之后,中国政府就开始观察自己的QE所带来的效果:经济复苏的很快,但是通胀,银行坏账等问题也开始浮现。结果,中国又成了全世界最早搞退市的国家。

中国式的退市没有打锣打鼓的进行,而是静静地通过人民银行收紧资金。

结果,中国股市从2009年年底就开始进入了一个长达3年半的下跌趋势。

今年六月上海综合指数第二次跌破2000点之后反弹,市场也开始感到了银证宽松了,连房地产的打压力道也轻了,人民银行再度放水,其中一个原因就是担心美国退市会影响中国的经济,现在美国不退市,人民银行可能会重新考量。

http://hkstock.cnfol.com/130923/132,1360...4,00.shtml
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#5
告别2013年,2014年有何展望?
With 2013 ending, What is the Outlook for 2014?


曾渊沧博士 Dr YC Chan – 20 December 2013 Newsletter:

With US continuously setting Record Highs, lots of people are worried that the stock market has reached the peak with bubble formed.

[Image: jbyLTOOI8WKLlN.png]
I think the stock market is NOT likely to burst yet. Now is Only the EARLY Stage of Bubble.
美国股市屡创新高,不少人担心已接近见顶,形成泡沫。

我认为应该不会这么早爆破。现在只是泡沫形成的初期。
[Image: jypLMuYyZBPeL.png]
Everyone needs to Remember

- NOT to be OVERLY GREEDY,

- DON’T INVEST too Much Fund into those Speculative Penny Stocks with No Underlying Business Fundamentals.


大家只要记住不要太贪心,不要把太多钱投入那些专炒供求而无实质基础的三、四线股便行。

http://www.sharesinv.com/zh/articles/43411/
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#6
Rainbow 
Thanks Candy.

Dr Chan is a Singaporean.
[Image: 05_n.jpg]
Picture from eastweek.com.hk

One of his recent article caught my attention because it explains a very important questions that I had been asking for the past 4 months.

Enjoy:

6th Dec 2013
香港恒生指数终于创出今年的新高,可喜可贺。过去几个月,我多次告诉大家香港股市的估值相当低,不论本益比(PE)还是股价账面值比(PB)都低,大家应该乐观地看后市。现在让我们乐观地迎接未来的高位吧!

不过,何以新加坡股市仍然未起动,未向上升?
今年5月,海峡时报指数一度升至3,464点,升势不错,大有一鼓作气,创新纪录。
何以新加坡股市无法像美国股市那样创新高?或像香港股市那样创今年新高?做为中国的一个特区,香港的股市却能在最近出现大突破,恒指一举突破24,000点,创出今年的新高点。何以香港股市能摆脱中国低迷股市的影响而新加坡不能?

Above is an extract from http://www.sharesinv.com/zh/articles/43065


Briefly translated as follows for the benefits of non-Chinese reader:
I had repeated highlighted the low PE and PB for HK stocks.
We should be optimistic and embrace breakthru of higher records!

Singapore STI shoot up to 3,464 with great momentum in May 2013.
However, its currently range bound for a long time.
Question:
1. Why Singapore could not continue its break thru like US or HK?
2. Why is HK can shake off the negative sentiment of China market but not Singapore?


Please read shareinv.com for Dr Chan's answer.
Dr Chan explanations make sense to me and hence I re-publish it here so that you can gain his insight too.
感恩 26 April 2019 Straco AGM ppt  https://valuebuddies.com/thread-2915-pos...#pid152450
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#7
(30-12-2013, 04:01 PM)chialc88 Wrote: Thanks Candy.

Dr Chan is a Singaporean.
[Image: 05_n.jpg]
Picture from eastweek.com.hk

One of his recent article caught my attention because it explains a very important questions that I had been asking for the past 4 months.

Enjoy:

6th Dec 2013
香港恒生指数终于创出今年的新高,可喜可贺。过去几个月,我多次告诉大家香港股市的估值相当低,不论本益比(PE)还是股价账面值比(PB)都低,大家应该乐观地看后市。现在让我们乐观地迎接未来的高位吧!

不过,何以新加坡股市仍然未起动,未向上升?
今年5月,海峡时报指数一度升至3,464点,升势不错,大有一鼓作气,创新纪录。
何以新加坡股市无法像美国股市那样创新高?或像香港股市那样创今年新高?做为中国的一个特区,香港的股市却能在最近出现大突破,恒指一举突破24,000点,创出今年的新高点。何以香港股市能摆脱中国低迷股市的影响而新加坡不能?

Above is an extract from http://www.sharesinv.com/zh/articles/43065


Briefly translated as follows for the benefits of non-Chinese reader:
I had repeated highlighted the low PE and PB for HK stocks.
We should be optimistic and embrace breakthru of higher records!

Singapore STI shoot up to 3,464 with great momentum in May 2013.
However, its currently range bound for a long time.
Question:
1. Why Singapore could not continue its break thru like US or HK?
2. Why is HK can shake off the negative sentiment of China market but not Singapore?


Please read shareinv.com for Dr Chan's answer.
Dr Chan explanations make sense to me and hence I re-publish it here so that you can gain his insight too.

Some how the above link does not work.
Found it after googling http://www.sharesinv.com/zh/?p=43065
Reply
#8
Should this post be under Investment Guru or Advertisement?

This can also be looked upon gathering notice about this "guru" before he launches a book or some $$ 3-days courses.

Furthermore, there are certain people here who are linked to the late Dennis Ng's forum.

http://www.masteryourfinance.com/forum/phpBB3/

For past weeks, we are seeing a surge in certain newcomers who post a lot of questions and yet have all the answers. No, he/she isn't looking for advise. Rather that individual is trying to do some subtle advertisement.

Valuebuddies, please do not waste your breath to answer unnecessarily.

Cheers.

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#9
Wrong forum to advertise coz VB unlikely to pay
for overpriced courses. Hahaha.
"... but quitting while you're ahead is not the same as quitting." - Quote from the movie American Gangster
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#10
What is wrong with Investing Guru launching books or coaching course to benefit the novice investors who may chalk up humongous investment loss Huh

($50k trading loss for me before attending class) Confused
without the necessary tool?

Some people prefer a faster lane in life through attending courses. Shy

Sharing of information doesn't matter which forum one is linked to either, I shared in Dennis Ng's forum as well as Pertama forum too.

[Image: jFZQ2NtXPXR1l.png]

(31-12-2013, 09:31 PM)arthur Wrote: Should this post be under Investment Guru or Advertisement?

This can also be looked upon gathering notice about this "guru" before he launches a book or some $$ 3-days courses.

Furthermore, there are certain people here who are linked to the late Dennis Ng's forum.

http://www.masteryourfinance.com/forum/phpBB3/
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