Prediction of 2014

Dear Buddies,

What your prediction for 2014?

China GDP growth 6-7% (well, i assume no one will dispute it)
Singapore STI growth by 10%
Hong Kong HSIX growth by 10-20%
Singapore Property decline for 10-20%

Let's make it a yearly tradition for VB, at the end of each year.

US S&P500 can rise by another 10%.
Singapore STI stagnant.
Singapore's property decline by 5%.

STI at least 15% growth from here. I am moving money from US market to Singapore market.

(26-12-2013, 11:04 AM)freedom Wrote: STI at least 15% growth from here. I am moving money from US market to Singapore market.

It seems a good move. Wish you all the best for Singapore venture.

Agreed with freedom, STI play lagged to major regional indices such as HSI, Tokyo, NYSE in terms of index and PE as well. I see 3600 for STI at a peak of 2014, anywhere around this range will be a profit taking level. Hence, my estimate is 13.9% upside.

My parameters for stock selection include:
1) Low net gearing
2) Low P/B or high NAV
3) Modest dividend payout ratio
4) Companies that potential have coporate action deals

Basically, it point towards a more defensive way of structuring my portfolio in time of rising interest rate. Low gearing will weather through high financing cost, Low P/B or High NAV provide margin of safety. Modest dividend payout provide recurring income and a form of assurance as a shareholder (I dont need stellar dividend), lastly I forsee alot of RTOs and M&A in the year of 2014. Afterall, we all agreed STI stocks are cheap. Someday, someone will come in and buy them out. I hope.. finger cross.

(26-12-2013, 11:04 AM)freedom Wrote: STI at least 15% growth from here. I am moving money from US market to Singapore market.

Haha Freedom, few days ago you still tell me that you have been investing more and more in US market. (sorry if this offended you ).

My predictions, Gold -10%, STI +/-, Spore private homes -10 to 20%, S-reits +10%. I am pretty doom for year 2014.

dun trust 100% what you read from an online forum
some ppl really like to flip roti prata hahaha

(26-12-2013, 01:11 PM)valuebuddies Wrote:

(26-12-2013, 11:04 AM)freedom Wrote: STI at least 15% growth from here. I am moving money from US market to Singapore market.

Haha Freedom, few days ago you still tell me that you have been investing more and more in US market. (sorry if this offended you ).

My predictions, Gold -10%, STI +/-, Spore private homes -10 to 20%, S-reits +10%. I am pretty doom for year 2014.

(26-12-2013, 01:11 PM)valuebuddies Wrote:

(26-12-2013, 11:04 AM)freedom Wrote: STI at least 15% growth from here. I am moving money from US market to Singapore market.

Haha Freedom, few days ago you still tell me that you have been investing more and more in US market. (sorry if this offended you ).

My predictions, Gold -10%, STI +/-, Spore private homes -10 to 20%, S-reits +10%. I am pretty doom for year 2014.

Hi valuebuddies. No, it does not offend me.

I did mention that I invested a lot in US in the past(late last year and this year, per my original words, "And for your information, I was keeping buying US stocks by selling more of my local stocks in the past year. I have absolute confidence in Mr. Bernanke, rather than anyone else who belittles him without a meaningful reason. " http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-4281-...l#pid69630). I enjoyed a greater run in US market than in Singapore market this year. I am anticipating a better year in Singapore market than in US market. Thus the switch.

for 2014

STI to hit 3300-3400

More s-chips getting into troubles.

Capricorn rally followed by Periodic market pullbacks/ corrections due to geopolitical risks, market end lower 5-10% by end 2014.

Shipping and port sector revival.