Singapore home sales fell 48% in October after loan curbs: update

Will price really burst? Seems like a dream

(16-11-2013, 04:02 PM)pianist Wrote: Will price really burst? Seems like a dream

Why not?
There is a time for everything on Earth.
All of us can live to see it if we live long enough.
It's matter of time.
The problem is can we take advantage when the time comes?
Why property should be different from the stock market?
Each has it's cycle of bottom & peak
imo
Cheers!

(16-11-2013, 04:10 PM)Temperament Wrote:

(16-11-2013, 04:02 PM)pianist Wrote: Will price really burst? Seems like a dream

Why not?
There is a time for everything on Earth.
All of us can live to see it if we live long enough.
It's matter of time.
The problem is can we take advantage when the time comes?
Why property should be different from the stock market?
Each has it's cycle of bottom & peak
imo
Cheers!

those who took 80-90% Loan, cannot take 20% drop.

wait for transactions volume to drop. closing time lengthen. then price will drop. like in HK resale now.

I think the gov wont let the property prices to drop a lot. It can always turn from a 'curbing' mode to 'enhancing' mode easily. Perhaps by importing more FTs, or simply make it easier for hdb owners to own a second private property. Anyway, the land in Sg is finite, its easy to manipulate the supply/demand.

I don't think the market will free fall, but will gradually soften.

The cooling measures basically just reduce the number of possible buyers by setting higher barriers. Once you have that, demand drops and when supply increases.... prices starts to fall. However, I think there is still a core pool of folks with cash and are eligible. These will help to cushion the market. Things like the recent Alex and Duo launches are misleading.

(16-11-2013, 05:31 PM)LionFlyer Wrote: I don't think the market will free fall, but will gradually soften.

The cooling measures basically just reduce the number of possible buyers by setting higher barriers. Once you have that, demand drops and when supply increases.... prices starts to fall. However, I think there is still a core pool of folks with cash and are eligible. These will help to cushion the market. Things like the recent Alex and Duo launches are misleading.

will the buyers be there when the prices are not going up?

(16-11-2013, 05:00 PM)countonme Wrote: I think the gov wont let the property prices to drop a lot. It can always turn from a 'curbing' mode to 'enhancing' mode easily. Perhaps by importing more FTs, or simply make it easier for hdb owners to own a second private property. Anyway, the land in Sg is finite, its easy to manipulate the supply/demand.

Yes.Gov will ease. like in 2005. but that 2 years after SARS and property market half dead.

Dont expect Gov to provide a safety net so fast. The reason the govt will step in, is the prevention of systemic risk. like in AFC or GFC.
But now if the small developers die, is that a systemic risk? Can Keppel/Centrepoint/Capitaland take hit from unsold property?

(16-11-2013, 06:03 PM)opmi Wrote:

(16-11-2013, 05:31 PM)LionFlyer Wrote: I don't think the market will free fall, but will gradually soften.

The cooling measures basically just reduce the number of possible buyers by setting higher barriers. Once you have that, demand drops and when supply increases.... prices starts to fall. However, I think there is still a core pool of folks with cash and are eligible. These will help to cushion the market. Things like the recent Alex and Duo launches are misleading.

will the buyers be there when the prices are not going up?

Exactly, when the stock prices are going up and up, it will attract more and more players. Just like insects to a light. They can not resist.

(16-11-2013, 06:22 PM)Temperament Wrote:

(16-11-2013, 06:03 PM)opmi Wrote:

(16-11-2013, 05:31 PM)LionFlyer Wrote: I don't think the market will free fall, but will gradually soften.

The cooling measures basically just reduce the number of possible buyers by setting higher barriers. Once you have that, demand drops and when supply increases.... prices starts to fall. However, I think there is still a core pool of folks with cash and are eligible. These will help to cushion the market. Things like the recent Alex and Duo launches are misleading.

will the buyers be there when the prices are not going up?

Exactly, when the stock prices are going up and up, it will attract more and more players. Just like insects to a light. They can not resist.

and everyone 'know' property.

(16-11-2013, 06:03 PM)opmi Wrote:

(16-11-2013, 05:31 PM)LionFlyer Wrote: I don't think the market will free fall, but will gradually soften.

The cooling measures basically just reduce the number of possible buyers by setting higher barriers. Once you have that, demand drops and when supply increases.... prices starts to fall. However, I think there is still a core pool of folks with cash and are eligible. These will help to cushion the market. Things like the recent Alex and Duo launches are misleading.

will the buyers be there when the prices are not going up?

I do not know the future. But I don't see how our population, despite of the 'noise' of protecting Singapore, will ever start to shrink, especially the ratio of PR/residents.

Qualifier, my views may be affected by my recent experience. Just signed the OTP on my first resale HDB. I am buying below COV on a unit next to the MRT and high floor. But I supposed the unique circumstances meant the owner was keen to cash out asap. But in the course of house hunting, I observed two groups. One group have holding power as they are prepared to set high prices and are not keen to sell unless an offer comes close to their number. Another group are the upgraders. Knowing that there is uncertainty in the market and HDB requirements to dispose of their unit, they are more amenable and reasonable.