The Next Big Crash - Are You Prepared?

(18-10-2013, 10:23 AM)Ben Wrote:

(18-10-2013, 10:06 AM)NTL Wrote: Hi Ben,

What do you mean by "Perhaps, as my portfolio becomes bigger, my time spent on managing it will be shorter."

Thanks.

As mentioned, I consider myself a value investor, with a preference towards high yield dividend stock. When my portfolio is small, the dividends it provide is also small, and so I tend to spend more time managing it to try and milk out more profit (from capital gain on top of dividends). Sometimes it work, sometimes it don't, but most of the time, it met my personal target. As my portfolio gets larger, the dividends will also increase, and so I have less pressure, and thus spend less time managing it. This is just my personal style, maybe because I am lazy

Noted! Thanks.

Human are made to be lazy, otherwise, why the invention of a TV Controller?

US was down 1% last night, Asia red today

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/201...0-by-2015/

Nomura bear sees global stocks tumbling 25% to 50% by 2015

(08-11-2013, 11:36 AM)ForeverAlone Wrote: http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/201...0-by-2015/

Nomura bear sees global stocks tumbling 25% to 50% by 2015

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The last time uber-bear Janjuah popped his head above the parapet was summer, when he predicted a 25% to 50% bear market would hit in late 2013 or early 2014.

While that has not happened, no matter to Janjuah, who merely shifted that apoca-stock-lyptical prediction out a few paces in his latest note to investors that published on Tuesday:

“…from a TIME perspective I still see end Q4 2013, through to end Q1 2014, as the window in which we see a significant risk-on top before giving way, over the last three quarters of 2014 and through 2015, to what could be a 25% to 50% sell-off in global stock markets.”
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He will sure get it one of these days by keep shifting the goal post.

Then I predict that the global stock market will up 25-50% by 2015!

No crash in sight for a very long time.

The USA has proven to the world that their approach is correct. There is much prosperity around, though concentrated in extremes.

In the 5 years of pumping, stock markets rallied and has not seen drastic corrections. In fact it has very little volitility.

Japan's approach has been proven to be a failure. After more than 15 years, their economy started to move only after Abenomics.

China has been pumping too, and their economy is stable.

Europe has pumped money into all the PIIGS.
It has just reduced interest rates too.

Australia has cut rates
Singapore has cut rates
Hong Kong has cut rates

Each country is fully aware that they cannot be a hero and contradict the trend.

If stock markets crash, then someone, somewhere pulled the brakes. Tapering is not pulling brakes... and it will be done so slowly that it will not affect the markets at all. Already during the debt ceiling crisis, the markets ignored it completely.

You may say that in some cases, the fundermentals is absent. Yes, but markets respond positively to politician's words of "determined action". ECB,FED,RBA,BOE,BOJ,China all sing the same tune... sweet harmony.
You can say that many of the numbers have been massaged.. well, if they were, did it affect the sentiments?.. the markets still did not crash!!

In this interconnected world, Governments are synchronised as far as economics, currency, and rates is concerned.They have learnt to guide sentiments.


This train will continue far beyond 2015... barring natural disasters like NYC being swallowed up by a tsunami.
Even then, TYO, FRA, LON, will continue to trade.

I have read/heard how doomsday people claim that "... this cant go on forever.." yes, I believe that too.
Of course if you keep saying " the sky will fall!!"... one day it will fall. But that one day is very, very, very far away.

(08-11-2013, 11:43 AM)Bibi Wrote:

(08-11-2013, 11:36 AM)ForeverAlone Wrote: http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/201...0-by-2015/

Nomura bear sees global stocks tumbling 25% to 50% by 2015

*************************************************************
The last time uber-bear Janjuah popped his head above the parapet was summer, when he predicted a 25% to 50% bear market would hit in late 2013 or early 2014.

While that has not happened, no matter to Janjuah, who merely shifted that apoca-stock-lyptical prediction out a few paces in his latest note to investors that published on Tuesday:

“…from a TIME perspective I still see end Q4 2013, through to end Q1 2014, as the window in which we see a significant risk-on top before giving way, over the last three quarters of 2014 and through 2015, to what could be a 25% to 50% sell-off in global stock markets.”
*************************************************************

He will sure get it one of these days by keep shifting the goal post.

Maybe he was expecting the fed to taper QE this year. But the fed change their schedule.

how come the STI so weak?
down 1% yesterday, down another 1% today
approaching 3100 soon and might come to test 3000 again this year

I don't see any bear coming at all... every notable country is printing money, US/Europe/Japan...

Unless
1) Black Swan Event - War / unrest (depends on who is fighting who / Virus / thailand ..etc )
2) US starts to pull the plug on QE, which i think won't happen too!!

Stock Markets will continue to rise modestly OR trade sideways for as long as possible...

Biggest possible trigger now would be US pulls the plug on QE... again, they need to act in their own interests also.

So conclusion : NO BEAR, modest and sideway movements only.

Cheerios,

I just puzzled on how a pull on the QE plug can be a big crash trigger..any enlightenment?