PC decline is not temporary: Study

Update on views from various stakeholders...

‘PCs not dead yet’

SINGAPORE — Personal computer (PC) sales have continued their downward trend for the second quarter of this year, according to reports by research companies IDC and Gartner last Friday.

Asia-Pacific numbers have been slipping for five consecutive quarters and the decline is reflected across all regions compared to a year ago, Gartner said, citing preliminary numbers.

News reports jumped on the data, with headlines screaming the death of the PC. Yet, despite the irrefutable data, analysts and manufacturers are cautioning that it might still be too early to organise its funeral.

http://www.todayonline.com/tech/pcs-not-dead-yet

Update on PC shipments... It seemed worse than previously forecasted...

Outlook for PC shipments worsens

SAN FRANCISCO — The outlook for the struggling personal computer industry is worse than was previously believed, according to market research firm IDC, which yesterday cut its 2013 forecast for global PC shipments for at least the second time.

Worldwide shipments of PCs are likely to fall 9.7 per cent this year as consumers continue to favour mobile gadgets, IDC said in a report.

That is much worse than IDC’s prediction in March that PC shipments would fall 1.3 per cent this year and below its forecast in May of an 7.8 per cent annual drop.

http://www.todayonline.com/tech/outlook-...ts-worsens

I see a trend in consumers where people use tablets with a keyboard dock. Almost replacing the need for a desktop.

Those who still go for desktops include gamers and those with high performance computing requirements like multimedia content creators.

Update on PC sales...

Tablets to outsell PCs at end of year: Report

MASSACHUSETTS— The tablet market is set to outsell that of the PC with more than 84.1 million units when this year comes to a close.

PC sales will only account to 83.1 million units, predicts technology researcher, International Data Corporation (IDC), as it continues to slump in the last two years as consumers abandon laptops for touchscreen tablets.

The changing consumer habits have come as a huge boost to tablet manufacturers such as Apple and Samsung, while creating trouble for companies exposed to the PC market, like Microsoft, Dell and Hewlett-Packard.

IDC credited the landmark moment to the short-term rush during Christmas as a factor that will push the tablets above PCs, although for 2013 and 2014 as a whole PCs will continue to overtake tablets. In 2015, it expects tablets to outsell PCs and for this shift to be permanent, according to the Daily Telegraph.

The launch of the new iPads as well as the much-anticipated Google’s Nexus 7 are also expected to help boost the sales of the tablet market.

Tablets will make up 14.6 per cent of global sales of “smart connected devices” — PCs, tablets and smartphones — this year, while PCs will account for 20.2 per cent. By 2015, this figure will have been reversed to 15.9 per cent tablets and 15 per cent PCs, and by 2017 the balance will tilt to be 16.5 per cent tablets and 13 per cent PCs.
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http://www.todayonline.com/tech/gadgets/...ear-report

Niche segments only impact a small number of users therefore unable to stop the downtrend of Traditional Consumer Desktop and Notebook. The next down leap will be when the Business segment adopt the Hybrid (tablet+keyboard) in a bigger way. Another factor likely will be the performance and user friendliness of the Hybrid or replacement are good enough to reduce PC further.

Cory

if we define PC as Windows + x86(intel/amd), then yes, it is shrinking greatly.

But if you think tablets as a different form factor of PC, throwing in ARM/Android, the market for PC has never shrunk.

The insider's view is quite similar to general views in this thread...

‘PCs will not go away in the next five or 10 years’

SINGAPORE — Market researchers International Data Corporation (IDC) last week hammered another nail in the PC coffin. In its latest report, IDC said tablet sales will overtake PCs in the fourth quarter of the year ¬– credited to the Christmas push – but added that full year PC sales will still edge out those of the tablets for this year and next. This trend will change, however, by 2015 when tablets will outsell PCs, with the trend to stay permanent, said IDC.

But Managing Director of Toshiba Singapore Wu Tengguo thinks the PC will not deviate from the role of a core computing device. Speaking with TODAY, Mr Wu said: “The PC will still be the centre of everything, be it for work or home use. Naturally, you will have many other devices to complement your core computing device, depending on your usage, lifestyle, work requirement, home, hobby. But as far as Toshiba is concerned, we don’t think that computing device will peter out.”

Even as the company pushes through with an e-learning app that resides on the cloud, it will not abandon their core business of making mobile PCs, said Mr Wu. “Toshiba has been in the PC business for the last 20 to 30 years. That will not change.”

People are not ready to give up their PCs yet. “There are certain things we can’t do without at this moment. One is the keyboard and the other is the screen. The keyboard has been in existence since the PC was invented and it is still here.

“Screens may get thinner and thinner but they will not disappear,” added Mr Wu.

Mr Wu attributes the success of the tablet to their extreme lightweight, instant-on and always-connected features but said they also have limitations. It cannot accommodate more powerful processors because then it will draw down on the battery. And, like it or not, there are a lot of applications today that still needs to run on Windows.

“At best, what the tablet has done now is replace some of those unique usage models for some PC users. Whenever I travel, I see people removing their laptops, tablets from their bags to run them through the scanners. Some have their smartphones with the big screens, but many will have PCs.

“It’s very hard to find someone who doesn’t need a PC or a laptop. I don’t think it is going away in the next five or 10 years,” Mr Wu shared.
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http://www.todayonline.com/tech/pcs-will...r-10-years

PC will not get replaced in the short term. However, in the longer term (10-15 years), I believe it will get replaced.
If you are looking at tablet replacing the PC, its only half the picture. The tablet can never handle the demanding computing power of some PC application.
However, if you throw in other trends in PC, such as cloud computing, where storage, computing power, applications are all process centrally, and deliver results through internet, it will present a different dynamics.
The trend is irreversible. Remember, it is not the niche crowd but masses that is relevant. I also used to play MMO and PC games, but as age catches up, I have different commitments and I spend lesser time on those now. The current generation are already growing up with tablets, so this is the norm for them. (My daughter is swipping my monitor thinking that it is an Ipad.)
This is the standard for them, not the PC.

(23-09-2013, 11:37 AM)kagemusha Wrote: PC will not get replaced in the short term. However, in the longer term (10-15 years), I believe it will get replaced.
If you are looking at tablet replacing the PC, its only half the picture. The tablet can never handle the demanding computing power of some PC application.
However, if you throw in other trends in PC, such as cloud computing, where storage, computing power, applications are all process centrally, and deliver results through internet, it will present a different dynamics.
The trend is irreversible. Remember, it is not the niche crowd but masses that is relevant. I also used to play MMO and PC games, but as age catches up, I have different commitments and I spend lesser time on those now. The current generation are already growing up with tablets, so this is the norm for them. (My daughter is swipping my monitor thinking that it is an Ipad.)
This is the standard for them, not the PC.

Consumer users are only one of the user groups for PC. Corporate users have different needs, which might not be easily replaced by tablets

(23-09-2013, 12:04 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(23-09-2013, 11:37 AM)kagemusha Wrote: PC will not get replaced in the short term. However, in the longer term (10-15 years), I believe it will get replaced.
If you are looking at tablet replacing the PC, its only half the picture. The tablet can never handle the demanding computing power of some PC application.
However, if you throw in other trends in PC, such as cloud computing, where storage, computing power, applications are all process centrally, and deliver results through internet, it will present a different dynamics.
The trend is irreversible. Remember, it is not the niche crowd but masses that is relevant. I also used to play MMO and PC games, but as age catches up, I have different commitments and I spend lesser time on those now. The current generation are already growing up with tablets, so this is the norm for them. (My daughter is swipping my monitor thinking that it is an Ipad.)
This is the standard for them, not the PC.

Consumer users are only one of the user groups for PC. Corporate users have different needs, which might not be easily replaced by tablets

On the other hand, i think it is possible if one fine day the tablet becomes as powerful as the PC. i hope i can live to see that day.