Stock which u think is good to buy and go long in the next crash

(28-07-2013, 10:03 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: If I can do it again, I will bet on OSIM... I were seriously considered to invest when OSIM was valued as penny stock... Well, it sounds easy with hindsight...

Alamak! i have the same thought and my extrapolation is that many many more are thinking the same.

The OSIM trade looks abit crowded now. But it is interesting to find out whose risk appetite/stomach is as strong as what they think, when the time comes. Alternatively, OSIM may drop as much as it once did with all the price supports, or they may simply fold up in the next major economic crisis.

(28-07-2013, 03:01 PM)weijian Wrote:

(28-07-2013, 10:03 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: If I can do it again, I will bet on OSIM... I were seriously considered to invest when OSIM was valued as penny stock... Well, it sounds easy with hindsight...

Alamak! i have the same thought and my extrapolation is that many many more are thinking the same.

The OSIM trade looks abit crowded now. But it is interesting to find out whose risk appetite/stomach is as strong as what they think, when the time comes. Alternatively, OSIM may drop as much as it once did with all the price supports, or they may simply fold up in the next major economic crisis.

i think if you just go through all the 2nd liners and 3rd liners to see how they behave in pricing alone during 2008/2009 and their prices now, of course you will find many have doubled or tripled. Even some of our blue chips do.
But some ships stay very "leaky".
Of course you don't buy on prices alone. If it is that easy, there will be no poor people. Or rather there will be no market. But i think it is not a bad way to start, looking at their prices then and now. Then what to look next?

When there is a major recession, I will be most concerned if the company can survive the recession, strong balance sheet, and healthy cash flow will be important.

Besides that, the regular rule applies (cheap valuation, good prospects etc.)

Not much preference in any company in particular.

IMO, don't need to plan too much or worry too much.

Because when the next crash appears, one does not need to make a decision to buy over a day or a few days. There will usually be a period of time to do the planning and buying.

The key is actually not to let fear overcome oneself and that's the most important part actually. Once can get pass that most difficult part, when the crash appears, the buying will come naturally.

Personally, I will spend some time on psychology even before the crash appears or start to appear. ie whatever comes up will go down eventually and vice versa. Once one get pass the psychological part, the next part is usually easier.

Focus on what to buy now especially if you think that the game is not over yet.

I don't forsee a crash happening soon since there is hardly a run away party at the moment.

The very fact that this topic pops up means that there remains fear. Mkt seldom crash with fear. Only crash with complacency.

GG

Well said, GG.

Look long term value with a strategy or story catalyst behind every counter you're in. You should weather any minor/major correction.

As for a real crash wise, its hard to predict whats the next key sector.. S chips were popular in 04-07/08 period. After which, property boom in singapore market prompted developers and construction sectors to recognise record earnings lately. Then, there is the myanmar play which maybe too good to be true for most people but however Its making people tonnes of money anyhow.

I think at this level, capital preservation is more important than making the next big buck.

yewkim Wrote:Hi all

Can share here what are the stock that you are looking out to buy in the coming crash?

Thanks, because honestly, i do have some ideas, but what is wrong if all expert here can give their opinion would be even better.

Thanks to all in advance

I would always want to have cash in hand (for opportunistic buys) and have 50~70% invested for long term.

My method uses not the full brokerage houses. Rather brokerage like standchart allows me to buy really small with no minimal charges.
(Then others would warn of shares not held in cdp risk, which i am mindful and fine with it)

For now counters, at todays prices

1. Keppel reit (K71U), currently book value price of 1.29
-can try to go long that office rents may increase as economy recovers. Current dividend 6%, worth the risk premium.

2. UETF SSE50 (jk8) for etf play on china. Can just buy 100 shares monthly to gain some china index/exposure

3. Wilmar (f34) for commodity play. Book value near 2.94 and company share buy back at 3.00
It is worth to pick on this giant. I like the strong management compared to other commodity players

4. CWT (C14) for warehousing and commodity play. Temasek has a hand in this. Most of the warehouses are fully tenanted out and long lease, and i see lots of warehousing at penjuru area too.

5. F&N (f99) waiting for breakup value to see increased share price.

6. Second chance (528) ceo has been buying shares from open market at 0.44-0.455 and aims to pay 7% dividend. I like the strong management.

7. And some reits that are recently launced that have yields >6% and guranteed payout for the next two years. (I won't want to be too heavy with reits. Prefer organic growth companies)

Good stock to buy and go long in the next crash, is Raffles Medical a good option?

At P/E 27 and P/B 4, I find it expensive at current prices. But because of the industry it is in, the high price to earnings seems justifiable. But to what extent?

Dividend payout ratio has been relatively stable as the company pays out slightly less than half its earnings each year.

Management seems decent as they have been trying to expand, albeit unsuccessfully.

The company is cash rich and has almost zero debts.

At what price will it be considered a bargain/undervalued?

(11-09-2013, 07:24 PM)TheMillennium Wrote: Good stock to buy and go long in the next crash, is Raffles Medical a good option?

At P/E 27 and P/B 4, I find it expensive at current prices. But because of the industry it is in, the high price to earnings seems justifiable. But to what extent?

Dividend payout ratio has been relatively stable as the company pays out slightly less than half its earnings each year.

Management seems decent as they have been trying to expand, albeit unsuccessfully.

The company is cash rich and has almost zero debts.

At what price will it be considered a bargain/undervalued?

Snatch it at 2.50-2.70. Good bargains.

If you have an asset allocation strategy, chances are you can better your overall returns instead of focusing on value stocks only.

The following is an article by fidelity on asset allocation in a business cycle
https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/how-...ness-cycle