SSD should be tweaked?

(31-08-2013, 09:53 AM)specuvestor Wrote:

(30-08-2013, 01:12 PM)cif5000 Wrote: Looking at her chart, I think she's saying that intervention policy will aggravate the supply situation resulting in a boom and bust cycle.

The purpose of the SSD is to deter speculators from benefitting from a short term view, hence weeding out the non structural demand. It is the right move yet many were doubtful that the 7th govt measure would work when market was euphoric

Now that all these incremental measures are biting, she is arguing that those same speculators who are stuck with properties that are subject to SSD, will be aggravating supply issue, when in the first place they were creating false demand. Incredible economics.

Not so sure about the false demand part. These speculators did offload successfully too fast thus the need for ssd. So the demand was there to lap it all up.

Big bro just see lots of easy monies being flung around and want leg in to extract some and add to national coffers for good of the public future.

---

(31-08-2013, 10:56 AM)countonme Wrote: Investors who had bought during the year 2011/2012 mus have considered the ssd before making the purchase. If as the article suggested, the ssd is changed to a capital tax, it will distort the market in other way. Many people w then expect their downside to be protected. And exuburent investment will happen.

This may also drive speculators back to mini shoeboxes due to lower gain (thus lower capital gains tax assuming still based on usual income tax calculation) per transaction. Now they can flip many upon each purchase reaching one yr old, spread across over several yrs.

How to buy TOPed house for self stay if no sellers due to ssd? End up buyer pay higher price to compensate seller for ssd...seller helped to hold the property while its being constructed, for 'actual demand' leh. They (speculators?) seems to play a useful role imo.

To put in bit of perspective. Those 3yr ssd ones should see the market around now. 4yr ssd ones will unload ard 2015. IF they are anal abt paying any ssd.

In fact those 3yr ones already start offloading in the past year. As the last lap is only 1/3 x (3%-$5400) nia.

(31-08-2013, 11:12 AM)shoeboxlife Wrote: To put in bit of perspective. Those 3yr ssd ones should see the market around now. 4yr ssd ones will unload ard 2015. IF they are anal abt paying any ssd.

In fact those 3yr ones already start offloading in the past year. As the last lap is only 1/3 x (3%-$5400) nia.

So true, cause I'm one of them hehe. U work in the industry?

(31-08-2013, 11:54 AM)smallcaps Wrote:

(31-08-2013, 11:12 AM)shoeboxlife Wrote: To put in bit of perspective. Those 3yr ssd ones should see the market around now. 4yr ssd ones will unload ard 2015. IF they are anal abt paying any ssd.

In fact those 3yr ones already start offloading in the past year. As the last lap is only 1/3 x (3%-$5400) nia.

So true, cause I'm one of them hehe. U work in the industry?

Nope. Im a specuvestor.

(31-08-2013, 01:42 PM)shoeboxlife Wrote:

(31-08-2013, 11:54 AM)smallcaps Wrote:

(31-08-2013, 11:12 AM)shoeboxlife Wrote: To put in bit of perspective. Those 3yr ssd ones should see the market around now. 4yr ssd ones will unload ard 2015. IF they are anal abt paying any ssd.

In fact those 3yr ones already start offloading in the past year. As the last lap is only 1/3 x (3%-$5400) nia.

So true, cause I'm one of them hehe. U work in the industry?

Nope. Im a specuvestor.

Well Im structural demand so hoping there r specuvestors at the place I'm aiming for...

(31-08-2013, 02:53 PM)smallcaps Wrote:

(31-08-2013, 01:42 PM)shoeboxlife Wrote:

(31-08-2013, 11:54 AM)smallcaps Wrote:

(31-08-2013, 11:12 AM)shoeboxlife Wrote: To put in bit of perspective. Those 3yr ssd ones should see the market around now. 4yr ssd ones will unload ard 2015. IF they are anal abt paying any ssd.

In fact those 3yr ones already start offloading in the past year. As the last lap is only 1/3 x (3%-$5400) nia.

So true, cause I'm one of them hehe. U work in the industry?

Nope. Im a specuvestor.

Well Im structural demand so hoping there r specuvestors at the place I'm aiming for...

Which district?

I am placing something to sell within the PLAB growth area.

Im westerner so sticking to d22 23

(31-08-2013, 10:59 AM)shoeboxlife Wrote:

(31-08-2013, 09:53 AM)specuvestor Wrote:

(30-08-2013, 01:12 PM)cif5000 Wrote: Looking at her chart, I think she's saying that intervention policy will aggravate the supply situation resulting in a boom and bust cycle.

The purpose of the SSD is to deter speculators from benefitting from a short term view, hence weeding out the non structural demand. It is the right move yet many were doubtful that the 7th govt measure would work when market was euphoric

Now that all these incremental measures are biting, she is arguing that those same speculators who are stuck with properties that are subject to SSD, will be aggravating supply issue, when in the first place they were creating false demand. Incredible economics.

Not so sure about the false demand part. These speculators did offload successfully too fast thus the need for ssd. So the demand was there to lap it all up.

Big bro just see lots of easy monies being flung around and want leg in to extract some and add to national coffers for good of the public future.

---

(31-08-2013, 10:56 AM)countonme Wrote: Investors who had bought during the year 2011/2012 mus have considered the ssd before making the purchase. If as the article suggested, the ssd is changed to a capital tax, it will distort the market in other way. Many people w then expect their downside to be protected. And exuburent investment will happen.

This may also drive speculators back to mini shoeboxes due to lower gain (thus lower capital gains tax assuming still based on usual income tax calculation) per transaction. Now they can flip many upon each purchase reaching one yr old, spread across over several yrs.

(31-08-2013, 11:06 AM)smallcaps Wrote: How to buy TOPed house for self stay if no sellers due to ssd? End up buyer pay higher price to compensate seller for ssd...seller helped to hold the property while its being constructed, for 'actual demand' leh. They (speculators?) seems to play a useful role imo.

I beg to disagree. Saying excessive speculation that drive up prices irrationally is useful for "price discovery" or "liquidity" is like saying frequency traders are useful in the stock markets. There is a fine line in which the usefullness of "liquidity" they provide will outweigh the cost, especially with leverage. I would be more comfy if leverage is taken out of the picture with regards to these speculators.

A sharp decline in volume is a necessary first step for prices to stabilise and eventually decline because buyers start to hesitate on the sky high offers. It happens in every cycle. This is not a supply issue that the writer is trying to distort.

Extending period of realisation of gain has a huge impact on risk/reward. 25% return in 3 months is different from 25% return in 3 years. That's why measures involving tenors work, from SSD to loan tenors.

(02-09-2013, 09:27 AM)specuvestor Wrote:

(31-08-2013, 10:59 AM)shoeboxlife Wrote:

(31-08-2013, 09:53 AM)specuvestor Wrote:

(30-08-2013, 01:12 PM)cif5000 Wrote: Looking at her chart, I think she's saying that intervention policy will aggravate the supply situation resulting in a boom and bust cycle.

The purpose of the SSD is to deter speculators from benefitting from a short term view, hence weeding out the non structural demand. It is the right move yet many were doubtful that the 7th govt measure would work when market was euphoric

Now that all these incremental measures are biting, she is arguing that those same speculators who are stuck with properties that are subject to SSD, will be aggravating supply issue, when in the first place they were creating false demand. Incredible economics.

Not so sure about the false demand part. These speculators did offload successfully too fast thus the need for ssd. So the demand was there to lap it all up.

Big bro just see lots of easy monies being flung around and want leg in to extract some and add to national coffers for good of the public future.

---

(31-08-2013, 10:56 AM)countonme Wrote: Investors who had bought during the year 2011/2012 mus have considered the ssd before making the purchase. If as the article suggested, the ssd is changed to a capital tax, it will distort the market in other way. Many people w then expect their downside to be protected. And exuburent investment will happen.

This may also drive speculators back to mini shoeboxes due to lower gain (thus lower capital gains tax assuming still based on usual income tax calculation) per transaction. Now they can flip many upon each purchase reaching one yr old, spread across over several yrs.

(31-08-2013, 11:06 AM)smallcaps Wrote: How to buy TOPed house for self stay if no sellers due to ssd? End up buyer pay higher price to compensate seller for ssd...seller helped to hold the property while its being constructed, for 'actual demand' leh. They (speculators?) seems to play a useful role imo.

I beg to disagree. Saying excessive speculation that drive up prices irrationally is useful for "price discovery" or "liquidity" is like saying frequency traders are useful in the stock markets. There is a fine line in which the usefullness of "liquidity" they provide will outweigh the cost, especially with leverage. I would be more comfy if leverage is taken out of the picture with regards to these speculators.

A sharp decline in volume is a necessary first step for prices to stabilise and eventually decline because buyers start to hesitate on the sky high offers. It happens in every cycle. This is not a supply issue that the writer is trying to distort.

Extending period of realisation of gain has a huge impact on risk/reward. 25% return in 3 months is different from 25% return in 3 years. That's why measures involving tenors work, from SSD to loan tenors.

Well I'll definitely vote for lower property prices with no special stamp duties. Maybe should only allow developer to sell property when it's nearer to TOP?