The Next Big Crash - Are You Prepared?

lol seems like everyone is waiting to buy, I think its may be difficult for the STI to go lower than the previous european crisis levels... so probably not gonna see STI going below 2700 level? we shall see ^^

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be greedy when others are fearful
but fearful when others are greedy

(28-08-2013, 11:26 AM)KopiKat Wrote:

(28-08-2013, 11:15 AM)specuvestor Wrote: We talk a lot about margin of safety in this forum. So is 10 or 20% decline good enough margin of safety?

Still have to look at individual stocks. Using a simple metric, many were trading at PE >20, which to me, was easily 10-20% over-valued, especially more so if they were non-growth stocks. So, a 10-20% decline is still not enough... For others, they were just fully or slightly over-valued, so, eyeing those, if they do drop 10-20%...

Agree and this is where our knowledge and EARLY research of the company gives us the comfort and courage

Nonetheless my observation through many cycles is that peopletend to be greedy too early and fearful too late

(28-08-2013, 05:00 PM)Bibi Wrote:

(28-08-2013, 04:19 PM)camelking Wrote: But look at this forum, people can't wait to buy!
Where is the fear?

I tot this is a value forum so there wont be fear when price plunge. Only excitement and happiness.

Not true...I noticed more postings and new members since the market starts to climb..
Moderators could probably provide the number of postings in both bull and bear market...will be interesting...

Anyway, if there is absolute fear in even a value investing forum, then it is TIME to buy, no?

Try 2008 or end of dot-com era in 2000...
Only few.....talked about investing during those dark periods and these few made money....

Of course, it is easier said than done....

I just wonder what could trigger a crash now?

(28-08-2013, 10:14 PM)pianist Wrote: I just wonder what could trigger a crash now?

Syria conflict extending to Iran??

(28-08-2013, 10:14 PM)pianist Wrote: I just wonder what could trigger a crash now?

1. Shadow banking 'sector' in China collapse swiftly and the contagion spreads from China to the rest of Asia.

2. Another Asian financial crisis originating from India.

(28-08-2013, 10:38 PM)Dividend Warrior Wrote:

(28-08-2013, 10:14 PM)pianist Wrote: I just wonder what could trigger a crash now?

1. Shadow banking 'sector' in China collapse swiftly and the contagion spreads from China to the rest of Asia.

2. Another Asian financial crisis originating from India.

impressed by yr knowledge on shadow banking..but recently they liberalised their loans interest rate wo any cap anymore..wonder how their shadow bank may react

Singapore shares hit by Syria, property concerns

SINGAPORE — The local share market endured another tough session yesterday as investors continued to react badly to the prospect of military intervention in Syria, with a sell-off in property companies adding to the downward pressure.

After spending much of the day below the psychologically-important 3,000-point level, a late rally saw the Straits Times Index (STI) end 0.98 per cent lower at 3,004.18 points to extend its losing streak into a 10th consecutive session.

Mr Desmond Chua, analyst at CMC Markets, said that while geopolitical tensions in Syria are pushing investors to look for safe-haven alternatives to equities, the new measures announced to enhance the affordability of Housing and Development Board (HDB) flats also took their toll as property counters came to the fore.

“Usually, in the kind of situation unfolding in the Middle East, the Singapore market tends to be a bit more resilient. But investors have also been assessing the implications of the HDB measures ... and that’s been an added negative factor,” he said.

CapitaLand fell 2.33 per cent to S$2.93, while City Developments lost 2.2 per cent to S$9.76.

Citigroup said the measures “continue to be negative for the private residential market, given that upgrader demand has contributed to a significant portion of mass-market private residential housing demand”.

But the Syrian situation was the main driver of sentiment in Singapore and in other major regional markets, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 falling 1.51 per cent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropping 1.6 per cent.

“The world is transfixed on Syria and rightly so, given the Syrian Foreign Minister’s comments that its defence would surprise the world. This is a market where the bulls are happy to revert to the sidelines and watch the situation unfold,” said Mr Chris Weston, Chief Market Strategist at IG.

Meanwhile, if the STI breaks definitively below 3,000 points, it is difficult to see where the next strong support level could be, said Mr Chua.

“The STI could head down to the 2,900 levels,” he said, cautioning that market participants should not be too negative because of the relative resilience of the Singapore market in such circumstances.

My wild guess: could be a confluence of above few factors (as some forumers have mentioned) plus a major unknown factor/s which strike suddenly, as in major city earthquake?

If it does come, will it be fast and furious? I guess a lot of people can take this. Guts and opportunity mah!

The worst fear is: prices slowly melting away; like a bottomless pit.

So maybe have to divide the bullets in tranches to buy in?

So I really don't know how to go about it.

But one thing is certain: every crisis is different.

(28-08-2013, 10:14 PM)pianist Wrote: I just wonder what could trigger a crash now?

People always say stocks are better than property as they are liquid and can easily sell when you need the money fast.

True that. But can you guarantee all the stocks that you need to sell to raise the money (be it for medical emergencies, fire sale property good buy etc) are above water??

For players who look to stocks as a place to park their idle funds or worse emergency funds, be really careful about this.

Food for thought.