Singapore Press Holdings (SPH)

(22-08-2013, 06:30 PM)Drizzt Wrote: as always only SPH can warrant such a strong reaction. that is what i observed from the profit statement through these quarters, what is classified as media. I did not come up with that category,sph did. I believe in seeing the figures. by no means am i concluding. but if a large part of earnings come from distribution and advertising and revenue have consistently been going down, isnt that bleeding.

this business have become more of a developer and renting and people like it because of brand.

perhaps its better because you get tax savings. a lot of the diversification really don't add much to long term recurring cash flow that is sizable.

do correct me if i am wrong on this.

Thx! At least I learnt a new meaning of bleeding today!
Quite different from my usual understanding..

Bleed
1. To lose money in a venture or investment over time. Bleeding may occur fast or slowly, but never improves.

(22-08-2013, 06:18 PM)Drizzt Wrote: you can invest in half that in APTT for 10% yield! and the business is likely to be less corroding then this!

Hi Drizzt,

Can you explain why you find APTT less corroding? I took a closer look (just preliminary, tempted by the yield and since it is highlighted by u ), saw the gearing level and the OCF and is quite turned off.

While my gut feels is not accurate, I already know of friends and relatives who have ways to stream channels from starhub and mio TV without paying, I am not sure how "copyrights" conscious Taiwanese have, but if you ask me what is the risk of decoding devices or internet streaming bleeding the pay TV and the risk of digital platforms bleeding the newspaper in singapore, I would think the later has higher chance of survival. Care to explain why you think APTT is less corroding?

(22-08-2013, 10:10 PM)Greenrookie Wrote:

(22-08-2013, 06:18 PM)Drizzt Wrote: you can invest in half that in APTT for 10% yield! and the business is likely to be less corroding then this!

Hi Drizzt,

Can you explain why you find APTT less corroding? I took a closer look (just preliminary, tempted by the yield and since it is highlighted by u ), saw the gearing level and the OCF and is quite turned off.

While my gut feels is not accurate, I already know of friends and relatives who have ways to stream channels from starhub and mio TV without paying, I am not sure how "copyrights" conscious Taiwanese have, but if you ask me what is the risk of decoding devices or internet streaming bleeding the pay TV and the risk of digital platforms bleeding the newspaper in singapore, I would think the later has higher chance of survival. Care to explain why you think APTT is less corroding?

I was also wondering... More so since SPH is included in his 'Singapore Dividend Stock Tracker' whereas APTT is not.... Did a quick scan of his blog but found no clue...

entered small today :x
hands too itchy lol

(23-08-2013, 01:42 AM)momoeagle Wrote: entered small today :x
hands too itchy lol

22 Aug 13
Shares Buy Back @ Average Price $3.972 for 1,000,000 shares from $3.96 to $3.98.
<Maximum number of shares authorised for purchase = 159,689,537 ; Number of treasury shares held after purchase = 1,084,740 ; Lots more "ammo" in balance...>
Shorts : 955,300 @ $3,790,729 => Average Price = $3.968 ; Looks like a bad idea to short if Shares Buy Back is active....
Out of Total Vol = 5,502,000 ; Range $3.95 to $3.98 ; Closed @ $3.96

IMO, Longs looks like a better option compared to shorts. Next key date will be mid-Oct when they'll announce FY13 (Aug) results. Past 2 years Div = 17ct, let's see if they can maintain, especially with their main mall assets now in a REIT and having paid an 18ct Special Div recently...
Beyond that, read the coming FY13 FS first....

As I look through SPH numbers, the revenue from newspaper and magazine (Which include circulation), is not actually a slope, but rather a irregular line. So I wonder if revenue is more correlated to GDP growth than the onslaught of digital platforms

[Image: sph-and-gdp.png?w=584]

It seems revenue is rather highly correlated with the economic activities in Singapore, when SARS and the likes happen, the decline start, when GDP rebound strongly, revenue rebound strongly too.

Not saying that the print is not facing challenges from digital platform, but since 2012 is a slow year, we can claim SPH is falling off a slippery slope, if this year economy is robust, rev should improve next year.

But margin is irregular, not much correlation. Although Super strong growth years does show better margins

Daily circulation though, show a slow and steady decline since 2005, about 10% from 2005 till 2012.

Circulation and rev does not necessary move in tandem, of course there will reach a point where circulation is so poor that the appeal of advertisement through mainstream papers will be affected, but the "bleed " is luckily slow, perhaps around 4% at worst, and easily offset by advertisement when economic activity is high, and I think mall management although not without its risks, should be able to offset this.

Just my tainted view, vested

I have been following SPH, and I agreed with Greenrookie's comment on SPH's media business, but major changes seemed happening since 2012, and it may be a tipping point...

I am cautiously optimistic on SPH media business, and observing...

Observations are:
- Charged fee for online news sites e.g. zaobao.com.sg, which were FOC previously.
- Promoted staple plans, with paper + digital, with no digital-only plan, which is good to avoid self-cannibalization.
- Revised its online portals, and promoted them aggressively.

One important update from Audit Bureau of Circulations (ABC) Singapore, on circulation, which also encourages the digitization initiative.
http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-new...on-figures

(not vested, but monitoring)

Sph is gathering steam in the Internet arena. It owns or partially own portals like sgcarmart, hardwarezone etc. they know the newspaper business will be declining.can they monopolize the Internet news/info business like they have on the traditional paper? One thing they have and other smaller portal dont is money. It can be a strength or it could be their weakness, depending on which side of the coin u look at it.

(23-08-2013, 05:01 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: I have been following SPH, and I agreed with Greenrookie's comment on SPH's media business, but major changes seemed happening since 2012, and it may be a tipping point...

I am cautiously optimistic on SPH media business, and observing...

Observations are:
- Charged fee for online news sites e.g. zaobao.com.sg, which were FOC previously.
- Promoted staple plans, with paper + digital, with no digital-only plan, which is good to avoid self-cannibalization.
- Revised its online portals, and promoted them aggressively.

One important update from Audit Bureau of Circulations (ABC) Singapore, on circulation, which also encourages the digitization initiative.
http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-new...on-figures

(not vested, but monitoring)

what do you think of the paywall concept? do you think it will work out?

(23-08-2013, 09:13 PM)Drizzt Wrote:

(23-08-2013, 05:01 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: I have been following SPH, and I agreed with Greenrookie's comment on SPH's media business, but major changes seemed happening since 2012, and it may be a tipping point...

I am cautiously optimistic on SPH media business, and observing...

Observations are:
- Charged fee for online news sites e.g. zaobao.com.sg, which were FOC previously.
- Promoted staple plans, with paper + digital, with no digital-only plan, which is good to avoid self-cannibalization.
- Revised its online portals, and promoted them aggressively.

One important update from Audit Bureau of Circulations (ABC) Singapore, on circulation, which also encourages the digitization initiative.
http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-new...on-figures

(not vested, but monitoring)

what do you think of the paywall concept? do you think it will work out?

First of all, it seems no success story so far IIRC.

Secondly, I opted out from zaobao online, due to its fee. So far, life as usual. That were the reasons to stay sideline to watch.

BTW, What do you think?

(not vested)