Thai Beverage Public Company

AseanTradingLink.blogspot : Thai Beverage and F&N Myanmar exposure for Jim Roger

(18-08-2013, 08:47 PM)AseanTradingLink Wrote: AseanTradingLink.blogspot : Thai Beverage and F&N Myanmar exposure for Jim Roger

What is the relationship between Jim Roger and ThaiBev ? Is he a substantial shareholder or director ? Or the write up with title 'Thai Beverage and F&N Myanmar exposure for Jim Roger', a recommendation for Jim Roger to take a stake in ThaiBev ? Or are you implying that Jim Roger will take a stake in ThaiBev ?

I also do not understand the purpose to attach the cover of Jim Roger's book on this thread. Please elaborate. Thanks.

It is better to post the comment on the advert section if you only post such comment as quoted above. Isn't it ?

(19-08-2013, 12:40 AM)cyclone Wrote:

(18-08-2013, 08:47 PM)AseanTradingLink Wrote: AseanTradingLink.blogspot : Thai Beverage and F&N Myanmar exposure for Jim Roger

What is the relationship between Jim Roger and ThaiBev ? Is he a substantial shareholder or director ? Or the write up with title 'Thai Beverage and F&N Myanmar exposure for Jim Roger', a recommendation for Jim Roger to take a stake in ThaiBev ? Or are you implying that Jim Roger will take a stake in ThaiBev ?

I also do not understand the purpose to attach the cover of Jim Roger's book on this thread. Please elaborate. Thanks.

It is better to post the comment on the advert section if you only post such comment as quoted above. Isn't it ?

Probably trying to generate traffic for his blog.

There is another individual here as well who has been posting one-liners in a lot of threads almost daily with a signature of his blog at the end of each post. I believe the blog in question is linked to some online advertising program which he gets paid for the traffic generated. The admins ought to take a firmer stand on covert advertising.

It is always good to browse around investment oriented blogs as we are all here to exchange views and learn from each other and an occassional plug on your own blog is fine for new readers who might be interested. But to me it clearly crosses the line to advertising when someone comments on random topics with generic one liners daily whose sole purpose seems to be displaying the URL of a blog.

There has been plenty of actions at F&N.

Thai Bev share price has been clobbered from year high of 70 back to almost where it started for the year (started at 40).

PER in the mid teens is undemanding for a big cap F&B exposure on SGX.

Any thoughts from any buddies?

Vested
GG

Probably the same fear on high debt and increasing interest rate is the reason why the share price has dropped.

IMHO as per my post in FNN thread, ThaiBev and FNN beverage which are cashcow companies, will be left to foot the credit card bill for years to come after TCC had its fill

borrow from my idol "Mr. Gordon Gekko".

"You know why fund managers can’t beat the S&P500? Because they’re sheep! And sheep get slaughtered."

"Their analysts, they don't know preferred stock from live stock"

Don't listen to the analysts, do your own research and buy when everybody is afraid.

(29-08-2013, 01:16 PM)specuvestor Wrote: IMHO as per my post in FNN thread, ThaiBev and FNN beverage which are cashcow companies, will be left to foot the credit card bill for years to come after TCC had its fill

Hi specuvestor, do you mind explaining further? Coz when i looked at the FNN presentation, the remaining F&N entity will be net cash, while FCL will have 36% gearing. Even if the numbers change due to market condition (eventual pricing of FCL), i dont think it will differ too substantially? Thanks in advance

30/06/2013 (S$m) F&N (pre-DIS) F&N (ex-FCL) FCL
Net Debt /(Cash) 1,214 -903 2124
Total Equity 8,425 2,790 5,905
Net Debt / Total Equity 14.40% Net Cash 36.0%

(29-08-2013, 02:34 PM)rokcradle Wrote:

(29-08-2013, 01:16 PM)specuvestor Wrote: IMHO as per my post in FNN thread, ThaiBev and FNN beverage which are cashcow companies, will be left to foot the credit card bill for years to come after TCC had its fill

Hi specuvestor, do you mind explaining further? Coz when i looked at the FNN presentation, the remaining F&N entity will be net cash, while FCL will have 36% gearing. Even if the numbers change due to market condition (eventual pricing of FCL), i dont think it will differ too substantially? Thanks in advance

30/06/2013 (S$m) F&N (pre-DIS) F&N (ex-FCL) FCL
Net Debt /(Cash) 1,214 -903 2124
Total Equity 8,425 2,790 5,905
Net Debt / Total Equity 14.40% Net Cash 36.0%

Let me speculate on Mr. specuvestor's point. I hope to get it right...

After all the "milking" from property segment of F&N, the F&B in F&N post-DIS is a cash cow, and will provide the cash to settle TCC remaining credit in due course.

(29-08-2013, 02:34 PM)rokcradle Wrote:

(29-08-2013, 01:16 PM)specuvestor Wrote: IMHO as per my post in FNN thread, ThaiBev and FNN beverage which are cashcow companies, will be left to foot the credit card bill for years to come after TCC had its fill

Hi specuvestor, do you mind explaining further? Coz when i looked at the FNN presentation, the remaining F&N entity will be net cash, while FCL will have 36% gearing. Even if the numbers change due to market condition (eventual pricing of FCL), i dont think it will differ too substantially? Thanks in advance

30/06/2013 (S$m) F&N (pre-DIS) F&N (ex-FCL) FCL
Net Debt /(Cash) 1,214 -903 2124
Total Equity 8,425 2,790 5,905
Net Debt / Total Equity 14.40% Net Cash 36.0%

IMHO based on what they are doing, the base case and logical conclusion is ThaiBev will align with FNN beverage while TCC will align with FCL

Someone has to foot ThaiBev's LBO bill. But if the remainder SGD1b from APB sale goes to FCL (which likely in future will in one way or another go into TCC), then ThaiBev will either get their cash by selling FCL shares (or swap FNN shares with TCC) and maybe FNN leverage up (aka capital management) and buyback ThaiBev's FNN shares.

Key is to figure out 1) how can ThaiBev delever, especially when i/r are expected to go up and 2) what would YOU do if you are TCC to maximise your interest.

I think it is likely there will be Act 3 for FNN but it is time to think about the exit strategy for FNN. OTOH ThaiBev shareholders' interest IMHO will depend largely on what price FCL will be sold or swapped.

PS CityFarmer is on the same wavelength but I think FNN will pay for ThaiBev while FCL will pay for TCC (through asset injection/ REIT)

Anyway it's good that I posted this on a strong day so that people might not think I am kicking one while it is down. Moody's has a different view obviously:

https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-T...-PR_281201