New Toyo

(27-07-2013, 03:27 PM)cyclone Wrote: No personal attacks please. I hope forumers can be considerate and behave in civilised manner.
Take with a pinch of salt on forummers' postings, do your own research.

Some questions on my mind:
If the stock price is down, is it only Stockerman who can accumulate, others are banned from buying ?
Do you believe that Stockerman can talk down or up a counter ?
Is there such a person, buying or selling only based on Stockerman postings ? Who is Stockerman, an investment guru ?

For Stockerman : Since other forummers have been annoyed by your noises, I hope you can be silent for a while.

If the forummers just want to hear the good things and concurrent opinions, I think this forum is not suitable for them.

Not vested in Stockerman, I even don't know who Stockerman is.
Also not vested in New Toyo.

I agreed with cyclone comment.

On top of that, please be reminded that ignore list is available if you feel posts from a forummer are annoying.

In fact, I am surprise on the attention received by Stockerman's posts.

(Not vested on New Toyo, and Stockerman)

Edited: My apologies for spelling error on name.

(27-07-2013, 05:07 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: I am surprise on the attention received by Stokerman's posts.

mmm.... I think you are thinking the same thing that I'm thinking...

If a country/forum cannot bear to hear "alternative views", isn't this a dictatorship regime ?

everyone only wants to hear good news about the counter he/she cherishes so much? sounds familar?

Btw, I am "Stockerman", not "Stokerman".

Will be silent on New Toyo for the moment, as requested..

But still I don't see why my agrument on "EPS attributable to equity holders" is flawed when used to assess value creation from the pt of view of the equity holder (similar to the GDP per capita concept).

tks.

Tien Wah just released its Q2 results which were worse off, compared to last year...And by extension New Toyo's result will not be good.
Tien Wah has cut its dividend - New Toyo might follow suit...


Group’s revenue for the second quarter ended 30 June 2013 reduced by 4.2% or RM4.4 million to
RM101.4 million from RM105.8 million in the preceding year corresponding quarter. The current quarter
2013 results were impacted by sluggish demand in certain cigarette related packaging products.

Plus Aussie dollar is set to continue to weaken over the next few quarters... Tien Wah's operations in Australia will continue to be impacted by forex losses..

This has shown that tobacco packaging is not as resilient as what people think it to be...

I have to agree with you on this fact. Historically, cigarette packagers do not have good track record of earnings stability.

Investors who are looking for exposure in tobacco industry are better off buying direct exposure in the tobacco companies and can forget about packagers.

I have shared my experience. You have shared yours - time to hands off the stock again.

GG

(01-08-2013, 09:33 PM)Stockerman Wrote: Tien Wah just released its Q2 results which were worse off, compared to last year...And by extension New Toyo's result will not be good.
Tien Wah has cut its dividend - New Toyo might follow suit...


Group’s revenue for the second quarter ended 30 June 2013 reduced by 4.2% or RM4.4 million to
RM101.4 million from RM105.8 million in the preceding year corresponding quarter. The current quarter
2013 results were impacted by sluggish demand in certain cigarette related packaging products.

Plus Aussie dollar is set to continue to weaken over the next few quarters... Tien Wah's operations in Australia will continue to be impacted by forex losses..

This has shown that tobacco packaging is not as resilient as what people think it to be...

The key vulnerability is that New Toyo is over reliant on one single client, BAT...If I am not wrong, more than 50% of Tien Wah’s revenue is from BAT…

I think forummers would agree with me that in this regard, New Toyo is in a very precarious position..

Printing volume and revenue has stagnated with no further expansion (i.e. No new printers bought since last year until now).
If no new printers are bought, how would there be revenue and EPS growth?

(01-08-2013, 09:33 PM)Stockerman Wrote: Tien Wah just released its Q2 results which were worse off, compared to last year...And by extension New Toyo's result will not be good.
Tien Wah has cut its dividend - New Toyo might follow suit...

Interim dividend rate has remained unchanged.
Last year's 8.52 sen interim dividend was taxable. Net was 6.39 sen.
This year's dividend comprises 5.4 sen taxable and 2.34 sen tax-exempt. Total net is 6.39 sen, same as last year's.

Tks Portuser for pointing out

What is your view of Tien Wah's growth potential given that it has reached maturity in its cigarette printing/packaging segment (as highlighted in its most recent annual report)?
In fact, based on the recent 2 quarters of Tien Wah's results, we can clearly see that revenues have come off its peak and is creeping down though it is noted that there are some operational efficiencies..

Tien Wah seems to have stopped growing...Revenue, net profit, EPS all stagnating and tapering off...

How can Tien Wah further grow its revenue, net profit and EPS, without depending excessively on BAT?

Tien Wah's printing volumes/revenues in Australia will continue to drop with the hiking of tobacco taxes in Australia - 12.5% per year over the next 4 yrs...

Plus the weakening of Aussie dollars - double whammies...


http://www.enca.com/money/australia-hikes-tobacco-tax

SYDNEY - Australia will hike tobacco taxes by 12.5 percent per year over the next four years to boost its coffers and build on its plain packaging campaign against smoking, the government said on Thursday.

The excise increase will reap some Aus$5.3 billion over the next four years as Canberra tries to plug an Aus$18 billion deficit forecast for this financial year and return the budget to surplus in 2016-17.

apparently costs A$1 per stick to smoke in Oz now!