China Merchants Holdings Pacific

I have my own version of conspiracy theories:

i) The China situation is already cast in stone - $ that wants to flight has already taken flight and is no longer in the system - hence the new leadership cannot embark on the same spending led strategy to accumulate more $ for their own clan of kakis. Hence when they cannot keep printing $ and buying, they do the reverse - tighten and force weak holders to jump;

ii) fortunately, the chinese know these games well and hence till this very day, the most critical backbone remains closed to foreigners - banking and financial system. Whilst everyone knows things are bad, there is very little that they can do with fudged data and economic numbers. Technically any GDP growth below say 7% could already signal that Chinese economy is already in a recession;

iii) infrastructure demand especially road usage is fairly inelastic, a slowdown may shave some usages but would not lead to a dramatic falloff unless there is a new competing road that opens up and siphon off traffic from existing road;

iv) to me, the very day that the substantial holder remains in control with substantial stake, they will do all they can to protect their interests. Still the same story - till the day they decide to dilute, I am not overly concern on the short term fluctuations of share prices.

Vested
GG

GG you are indeed optimistic. we are still thinking if the traffic will be affected. ZheJiang expressway's ningbo experess way still have growht.

we want to see what will happen to the 1.6 bil that came out of nowhere. if that is to buy jiurui, freeing that up could reduce gearing.

If you rewind way back to 1980s - the stock market cycle has been a predictable 10 years - 3 sharp bears and 7 grinding bulls starting from 1987, repeated in 1997, 2007 for different reasons.

The world is far from a perfect place currently with US being the sole bright spot in terms of recovery with Japan chasing with similar copycat policies.

China is unlikely to be the leadership in this cycle. It has to pay for the price of "cheating" - IMO, new leadership means changes. However, with the "bad" track record in the most recent past, it will take time to heal wounds and if they do it well, it will turn out to be a next stock market cycle story - when most have written off and where most likely are to be uncovered - where you can find a few nails in a rotten ship.

For the time being - CM Pac and probably the CM Group are likely to chosen group in representing Chinese "GLC" both domestically and overseas. If I m not wrong, CM Group made a foray overseas recently and just on that alone, its a sign of strength for the group alone.

Ever wonder why stock mkt globally continued to do so well notwithstanding all the troubles? No prize for guessing - the power of $ and the inability of central bankers to solve ongoing problems.

Sounds convincing
confident GG

From What I know, Number of china's car growth is still at double digit even thou the economy is slowing down.. Shd provide some support for cmhp earnings..

(25-07-2013, 02:07 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: If you rewind way back to 1980s - the stock market cycle has been a predictable 10 years - 3 sharp bears and 7 grinding bulls starting from 1987, repeated in 1997, 2007 for different reasons.

The world is far from a perfect place currently with US being the sole bright spot in terms of recovery with Japan chasing with similar copycat policies.

China is unlikely to be the leadership in this cycle. It has to pay for the price of "cheating" - IMO, new leadership means changes. However, with the "bad" track record in the most recent past, it will take time to heal wounds and if they do it well, it will turn out to be a next stock market cycle story - when most have written off and where most likely are to be uncovered - where you can find a few nails in a rotten ship.

For the time being - CM Pac and probably the CM Group are likely to chosen group in representing Chinese "GLC" both domestically and overseas. If I m not wrong, CM Group made a foray overseas recently and just on that alone, its a sign of strength for the group alone.

Ever wonder why stock mkt globally continued to do so well notwithstanding all the troubles? No prize for guessing - the power of $ and the inability of central bankers to solve ongoing problems.

Sounds convincing
confident GG

thanks GG. lets hope the earnings dont throw any surprises

---

(25-07-2013, 05:22 PM)Jack31 Wrote: From What I know, Number of china's car growth is still at double digit even thou the economy is slowing down.. Shd provide some support for cmhp earnings..

i think one trend is as cost of production increases, china will need to reply on internal consumption and affluence will have to rise. with that car ownershihp.

(25-07-2013, 12:01 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: I have my own version of conspiracy theories:

i) The China situation is already cast in stone - $ that wants to flight has already taken flight and is no longer in the system - hence the new leadership cannot embark on the same spending led strategy to accumulate more $ for their own clan of kakis. Hence when they cannot keep printing $ and buying, they do the reverse - tighten and force weak holders to jump;

ii) fortunately, the chinese know these games well and hence till this very day, the most critical backbone remains closed to foreigners - banking and financial system. Whilst everyone knows things are bad, there is very little that they can do with fudged data and economic numbers. Technically any GDP growth below say 7% could already signal that Chinese economy is already in a recession;

iii) infrastructure demand especially road usage is fairly inelastic, a slowdown may shave some usages but would not lead to a dramatic falloff unless there is a new competing road that opens up and siphon off traffic from existing road;

iv) to me, the very day that the substantial holder remains in control with substantial stake, they will do all they can to protect their interests. Still the same story - till the day they decide to dilute, I am not overly concern on the short term fluctuations of share prices.

Vested
GG

I have read before that China needed an 11% annual growth just to keep their unemployment in control. I think thing is very bad in China.

I also come to know that most of their small business is suffering. Some of their revenue is down by as much as 90% ( Qingmei, for example).

If one have Chinese stock, time to take stock. Time to be careful.

May u all prosper.

(26-07-2013, 09:04 PM)yewkim Wrote: I have read before that China needed an 11% annual growth just to keep their unemployment in control. I think thing is very bad in China.

I also come to know that most of their small business is suffering. Some of their revenue is down by as much as 90% ( Qingmei, for example).

If one have Chinese stock, time to take stock. Time to be careful.

May u all prosper.

Beg to differ on your points. I think you are making sweeping statements without facts. firstly numbers out of china flies all over the place. their premier just said they need 7%. you take the number from somewhere that says 11%. who is right? I don't know. Qingmei is a s-chip...areas full of fraud laden companies. You cannot tarnish the rest of china smes with this bad lot.

as for CMPH, I pick up some lots this week and is queuing to buy more next week. I just like the fear in the mkt as it allows me to pick up good stocks at a cheaper price. pls don't follow me and do your own research.

Unless Wenzhou differs so much from Hangzhou, this is a good indicator.

Jacmar, next time do hound the CEO mr Jiang to publish monthly traffic revenue data haha.

http://www.investmentmoats.com/money-man...-dropping/

[Image: U5bdaKw.png]
[Image: Z9bhA1c.png]
[Image: Bkoi2pe.png]
[Image: hsuZSVL.png]

Anybody here has looked into the impact of the high speed rail on CMP's expressways? China has an ambitious plan for a national high speed rail grid. One of the line that has been implemented is Yongtaiwen. I tend to think that most people would prefer to use the high speed train to driving, but I may be biased since I do not own a car.

(28-07-2013, 03:37 PM)touzi Wrote: Anybody here has looked into the impact of the high speed rail on CMP's expressways? China has an ambitious plan for a national high speed rail grid. One of the line that has been implemented is Yongtaiwen. I tend to think that most people would prefer to use the high speed train to driving, but I may be biased since I do not own a car.

I wouldn't worry about it for several reasons:

1. by the time the high speed train is ready several years away, the expressway will be so overloaded and need a relief
2. high speed train don't serve commercial transportation like carrying of goods.
3. china don't have a good network of rental car services whereby you can take the train and then rent a car in the destination and relying on taxi would be expensive. so if you already have a car might as well drive there.so the high speed train is more for the masses.