Stock which u think is good to buy and go long in the next crash

(27-07-2013, 10:26 PM)KopiKat Wrote: Who knows what will happen ie. which stock is going to become better value for money... My advice is to ask this question again only when the crash happens... We can then share our analysis on which good stock had dropped a lot more than it's intrinsic value... even then, we'll likely be arguing about the intrinsic value itself and won't be able to agree with each other... haha...

i think it would be revealing if we ask "what was a good stock to go long during the last crash?"

i have confident in SG blue chips lah!

Try to buy enough to be 5% of SG banks, or telco, or SIA/STE or KELCORP...!!

(28-07-2013, 01:50 AM)cif5000 Wrote:

(27-07-2013, 10:26 PM)KopiKat Wrote: Who knows what will happen ie. which stock is going to become better value for money... My advice is to ask this question again only when the crash happens... We can then share our analysis on which good stock had dropped a lot more than it's intrinsic value... even then, we'll likely be arguing about the intrinsic value itself and won't be able to agree with each other... haha...

i think it would be revealing if we ask "what was a good stock to go long during the last crash?"

I suppose that would be a good place to start... for learning purpose. But, will history repeats itself? It definitely won't be exactly the same and a stock which recovered the last time may not survive the next crash eg. Highly Geared REITs / Trusts. A quote from Warren Buffett,

“If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians.”

(28-07-2013, 09:37 AM)KopiKat Wrote:

(28-07-2013, 01:50 AM)cif5000 Wrote:

(27-07-2013, 10:26 PM)KopiKat Wrote: Who knows what will happen ie. which stock is going to become better value for money... My advice is to ask this question again only when the crash happens... We can then share our analysis on which good stock had dropped a lot more than it's intrinsic value... even then, we'll likely be arguing about the intrinsic value itself and won't be able to agree with each other... haha...

i think it would be revealing if we ask "what was a good stock to go long during the last crash?"

I suppose that would be a good place to start... for learning purpose. But, will history repeats itself? It definitely won't be exactly the same and a stock which recovered the last time may not survive the next crash eg. Highly Geared REITs / Trusts. A quote from Warren Buffett,

“If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians.”

It is true that history will not repeat itself EXACTLY, but there should have lessons to be learned, IMO

In the last crisis, i plunged into Singapore banking stocks e.g. OCBC, and blue chips e.g. SPH.

If I can do it again, I will bet on OSIM... I were seriously considered to invest when OSIM was valued as penny stock... Well, it sounds easy with hindsight...

The only way that anybody can really wait for a crash and standby all their money to go in is to not be a stock market investor at all, means they save their money in the bank and go about their daily routine then when the crash happens they read about it in the newspaper.

But unlikely cause whoever interest in stocks will not be able to resist temptation to go in market before the crash, and whoever is uninterested will not know what to buy as they "out of the loop" when the crash happens so will not be able to find the opportunities which will only appear for a short while.

Like example in 2008 crash traders panic'd and unloaded everything from osim to popular to challenger stocks, FSL trust yield went up to 50% that means if you bought $1 your dividend yield is 50cts, then within a few days people regained their senses and started to pile in. Anybody out of the loop will not be able to find such stocks quickly if they haven't been attuned to the market for some time.

So totally nonsense and highly unlikely that anybody interested in stock market can resist opportunities that present itself while patiently waiting years for the big one.

More likely when the big one comes suddenly all you have on hand is maybe 10% standby cash

(28-07-2013, 01:50 AM)cif5000 Wrote:

(27-07-2013, 10:26 PM)KopiKat Wrote: Who knows what will happen ie. which stock is going to become better value for money... My advice is to ask this question again only when the crash happens... We can then share our analysis on which good stock had dropped a lot more than it's intrinsic value... even then, we'll likely be arguing about the intrinsic value itself and won't be able to agree with each other... haha...

i think it would be revealing if we ask "what was a good stock to go long during the last crash?"

I seldom think so far ahead or in the past. Most of the times, I am just thinking which stock should I switch out and add in.
Normally, it is easier to identify weak stock in my portfolio to get rid off than to know which stock is the best.

Weeding is easier since weeds are obvious and ugly. But among rose, tulip, hibiscus, orchid etc, I have no idea which is prettier.

mega crash happens once in 10 years. To wait for it simply is not worth the money, just like those people who has been waiting for crash since 2009.

I believe that it is more important to plan for mini crash, which happens quite often(can be a few times a year).

(28-07-2013, 10:35 AM)sgd Wrote: The only way that anybody can really wait for a crash and standby all their money to go in is to not be a stock market investor at all, means they save their money in the bank and go about their daily routine then when the crash happens they read about it in the newspaper.

But unlikely cause whoever interest in stocks will not be able to resist temptation to go in market before the crash, and whoever is uninterested will not know what to buy as they "out of the loop" when the crash happens so will not be able to find the opportunities which will only appear for a short while.

Like example in 2008 crash traders panic'd and unloaded everything from osim to popular to challenger stocks, FSL trust yield went up to 50% that means if you bought $1 your dividend yield is 50cts, then within a few days people regained their senses and started to pile in. Anybody out of the loop will not be able to find such stocks quickly if they haven't been attuned to the market for some time.

So totally nonsense and highly unlikely that anybody interested in stock market can resist opportunities that present itself while patiently waiting years for the big one.

More likely when the big one comes suddenly all you have on hand is maybe 10% standby cash

Yes the "mini crashes" before the big one comes. But what stage of mini crashes, you will go in?

(28-07-2013, 01:52 PM)Temperament Wrote: Yes the "mini crashes" before the big one comes. But what stage of mini crashes, you will go in?

If I see in a mini crash anything 10-15% yield I will buy no need to think.

But the work really starts before the crash that means day to day you are regularly digging for info even though past info. Several weeks before the crash in 2008 I was reading up the prospectus of FSL trust which already IPO and listed on stock exchange. I remember the price was over $1 and the prospectus said the price represented a very high yield based on the returns at a time when market yields averaged 4-5% so FSL yield was already very good. But to me the price was too high so I tucked the info at the back of my mind.

So fast forward when the crash happen when traders dumpled FSL trust I saw an opportunity but others wallstraits spotted it as well and much earlier and somebody posted the yield as 50% by the time I went in the price gone up and my yield was already down to 44% which was still very excellent yield. So that's why I say such opportunity will only appear for a brief moment If you are not attuned to the going on's in the market you won't not know what the opportunities look like if anybody thinks they can just standby and wait for the big one and know what to do when it comes they are just dreaming.

(28-07-2013, 02:43 PM)sgd Wrote:

(28-07-2013, 01:52 PM)Temperament Wrote: Yes the "mini crashes" before the big one comes. But what stage of mini crashes, you will go in?

If I see in a mini crash anything 10-15% yield I will buy no need to think.

But the work really starts before the crash that means day to day you are regularly digging for info even though past info. Several weeks before the crash in 2008 I was reading up the prospectus of FSL trust which already IPO and listed on stock exchange. I remember the price was over $1 and the prospectus said the price represented a very high yield based on the returns at a time when market yields averaged 4-5% so FSL yield was already very good. But to me the price was too high so I tucked the info at the back of my mind.

So fast forward when the crash happen when traders dumpled FSL trust I saw an opportunity but others wallstraits spotted it as well and much earlier and somebody posted the yield as 50% by the time I went in the price gone up and my yield was already down to 44% which was still very excellent yield. So that's why I say such opportunity will only appear for a brief moment If you are not attuned to the going on's in the market you won't not know what the opportunities look like if anybody thinks they can just standby and wait for the big one and know what to do when it comes they are just dreaming.

i agree what you say as people who are not in the market before if the Big One comes, they will say there i told you so not to buy stocks.
And once you are in the market, it's very difficult to come out completely and start all over "new" again. If you can come out 80 to 90 % of your portfolio in value you are quite rare a breed already.