New Toyo

If Tien Wah and by extension New Toyo need a rights issue to expand, New Toyo might as well not give out any special dividend in the first place..
it seems a bit illogical to give special dividend now and later inform shareholders "sorry we need to do a rights issue"....

just to further add - if everyone is so happy with rights issue, might as well wait for rights issue to come and share price to drop and then buy.

Those who bought previously at the low 15 to 20 cents would have laughed until cow comes home...

No of smokers = smoking rate x population

e.g. No of smokers = 25% x 120 mil = 30 mil smokers in Japan (roughly)

Growth rate (No of smokers) = Growth rate (smoking rate) + Growth rate (population) [Approximation]

For Japan, both the growth rate for "smoking rate" and "population" are declining. Hence the no of smokers are fast declining at double quick pace.

The point about BAT trying to expand its market share in Japan is taken. So what? the entire tobacco industry is fast declining there...

(16-07-2013, 01:44 PM)Stockerman Wrote: If Tien Wah and by extension New Toyo need a rights issue to expand, New Toyo might as well not give out any special dividend in the first place..
it seems a bit illogical to give special dividend now and later inform shareholders "sorry we need to do a rights issue"....

just to further add - if everyone is so happy with rights issue, might as well wait for rights issue to come and share price to drop and then buy.

Those who bought previously at the low 15 to 20 cents would have laughed until cow comes home...

agree, since it is illogical to issue rights if it can give out special dividend. I would by common sense logically deduce that rights will not be called. Sometimes one has to use common sense and logic, life would be simpler.

Rest assured that Tien Wah/New Toyo is always on the radar screen of Amcor...
Amcor's revenue is $12bil USD, easily 50 times that of New Toyo. It can "swallow" New Toyo easily without too much thoughts...
It is a matter of time that Amcor buys out Tien Wah/New Toyo.
Based on very conservative EBITDA valuation of only 6 times, we are looking at around 55 cents at least.

No one believes me when I said that there would be a high chance that New Toyo would pay out special dividends. Now you have it
I strongly believe that there would be a 2nd around of special dividend. Just wait and see

No one believes me when I said that there would be a high chance that Amcor would eventually buy out New Toyo.
Just wait and see

Noted this comments from someone at Next Insight

************
Disapproval - Thursday, 18 July 2013 19:21Just need to look at financial ratios, say comparing FY12 and FY11.

FY12 ratios were worse off compared to FY11. Tien Wah should have mounted the learning curve in FY12 compared to FY11.

Comparing FY12/FY11 to FY08 (pre-BAT contract period), ratios were worse off now against FY08. Tien Wah was doing much better before taking on the BAT contract!!!

Investors should note this carefully. Dont be taken in by people who said that Tien Wah has benefitted from BAT contract. This was not borne out in the financial ratios!!

http://www.tienwah.com/FinancialHighlights.htm

One should also note the reply to Disapproval at Next Insight.

*******************
New Toyo investor - Friday, 19 July 2013 01:28

Your contention that Tien Wah is worse off in 2012 compared with 2011 is incorrect. Your second contention that Tien Wah is also worse off with the BAT supply contract is also incorrect.

Several figures you quoted from Tien Wah website differ from those (underlined) found in Page 12 of Tien Wah 2012 annual report:
...........................RM'000
...............2012.......2011........2008

Revenue.......408,081....388,575.....188,059
Group profit ..40,375.....38,374......19,552
Attributable
profit.........27,168.....26,421......18.705
Profit per
share(sen)......28.15......27.38.......27.14

The figures in the annual report were audited. You may want to contact Tien Wah to sort out the discrepancies.

2012 profit per share was not worse off as stated by you. It edged up slightly, from 27.38 sen in 2011 to 28.15sen in 2012.

Your point that Tien Wah is worse off with the BAT supply contract is not backed up by audited figures. In fact profit per share edged up from 27.14sen in 2008 to 28.15 sen in 2012.

In fact, profit per share (based on attributable profit that excludes minority interests) is not a good measure as the subsidiary set up between Tien Wah and New Toyo to fulfill the BAT supply contract is a substantial profit centre. The more relevant measure is group profit per share, which was a high 41.84 sen in 2012 against 28.36 sen in 2008.

There is therefore no reason to suggest that the BAT supply contract destroys value.

********************

(18-07-2013, 07:22 PM)Stockerman Wrote: Noted this comments from someone at Next Insight

************
Disapproval - Thursday, 18 July 2013 19:21Just need to look at financial ratios, say comparing FY12 and FY11.

FY12 ratios were worse off compared to FY11. Tien Wah should have mounted the learning curve in FY12 compared to FY11.

Comparing FY12/FY11 to FY08 (pre-BAT contract period), ratios were worse off now against FY08. Tien Wah was doing much better before taking on the BAT contract!!!

Investors should note this carefully. Dont be taken in by people who said that Tien Wah has benefitted from BAT contract. This was not borne out in the financial ratios!!

http://www.tienwah.com/FinancialHighlights.htm

If Tien Wah could not even be bothered with “erroneous financial ratios” being published on their official website, why would anyone go and argue with them what should be the correct ratios reflective of their underlying performance...

Even going by audited results, the "edging up" of EPS (attributable to equity holders) is miniscule. Did it even cover inflation growth? Highly doubtful.
All the more one should refer to "EPS attributable to equity holders" for comparision, from the pt of view of shareholders of that company.

Why went through the big trouble of doing rights issue and only get to enjoy that miniscule edging up of EPS?

Looking at New Toyo's EPS (now compared to pre-BAT times), it is even worse.
Can someone help to dig and show it to everyone here ?

Still remember that tissue paper business? If I am not mistaken, the loss in EPS is more than 10 cents (to equity holders, of course) !!!

Many tks.

For a person with so many negatives against New Toyo, why would he still hold on to their shares and do so much research on said company plus non stop updates and postings.

As a neutral bystander having read the posts in this thread, it seems that Stockerman has some hidden agenda or must have suffered greatly at the hands of the company. Perhaps an ex-employee? Or just a nasty family member being left out?

2001
-ve 14.9 cents (EPS)

2002
2.7 cents

2003
6.7 cents

Previously, New Toyo was covered by DMG...