New Toyo

Special dividend 2.28 cents. Why dropped until 29.5 cents from 32.5 cents?
Bids are at 29 cents...

Stokerman has found the Next Insight article on New Toyo biaised as it did not mention the failed tissue paper business and the divestment of Shanghai Asia.
I thought the article did acknowledge New Toyo past failings in saying "New Toyo (recently traded at 32c) made a number of investments that did not provide sustainable profits. Because of this, the company has been viewed as being not savvy despite the subsequent divestment of the sub-par investments."

In saying "the Yen family bought out the seemingly unprofitable tissue paper business only to make a killing later on. Yen family benefited but shareholders suffered the losses."
and "it did not explain the entire SAH saga. there were much more to it.",
Stokerman is suggesting that the controlling shareholder has benefited himself at the expense of minority shareholders. If he believes so, he should sell New Toyo shares. Yet he is holding on them.
Very baffling.

If Tien Wah cannot meet BAT's stringent requirements (such as cost efficiency, etc), naturally it will not be able to renew the contract...

At this stage, there is no assurance from New Toyo's management whatsoever that Tien Wah would be able to do so...

Current cash level = 38.5 + 29 - 10 = 57.5 mil (post 1st round of dividend payout).
or 13 cents of cash.

Current share price = 30 cents.
FY12 EPS = 3.37

Valuation of underlying business = 17 cents / 3.37 = P/E of 5.

Is New Toyo underlying core business only worth P/E of 5?

****

Based on 1Q-2013 results, net profit (attributable to equity holder) has improved by 51%.
Lets assume full year EPS for 2013 will improve by 20% = 1.2 x 3.37 = 4 cents. (conservative)

Tien Wah P/E = 7.68 (trailing). Say we apply P/E of 7 to New Toyo. (conservative)

Valuation of New Toyo = 7 x 4 + Cash = 28 + 13 = 41 cents. (conservative)

Like that it seems that New Toyo no longer needs funding from capital markets - be careful for a privatisation at book value...

(12-07-2013, 09:19 PM)Underdogger Wrote: Current cash level = 38.5 + 29 - 10 = 57.5 mil (post 1st round of dividend payout).
or 13 cents of cash.

Current share price = 30 cents.
FY12 EPS = 3.37

Valuation of underlying business = 17 cents / 3.37 = P/E of 5.

Is New Toyo underlying core business only worth P/E of 5?

****

Based on 1Q-2013 results, net profit (attributable to equity holder) has improved by 51%.
Lets assume full year EPS for 2013 will improve by 20% = 1.2 x 3.37 = 4 cents. (conservative)

Tien Wah P/E = 7.68 (trailing). Say we apply P/E of 7 to New Toyo. (conservative)

Valuation of New Toyo = 7 x 4 + Cash = 28 + 13 = 41 cents. (conservative)

to me, new toyo still presents an attractive picture for investors:

1) undervalued pb 0.8~

2) attractive PE 7

3) regular dividends

4) raised dividends over the past 10 years.

http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/sgxweb/hom...ate_action

Unlocking of land value as suggested by underdogger I am not too sure.

But otherwise, all the above points would point towards a growing and sustainable business for the past 10years and will likely be the case in the future. Special dividends if any would be a bonus. Likely share price will trend upwards slowly but surely.

To each his own. After you have experienced what I have went through since IPO till now, I will treat it with caution. It is a sin industry support player and it will take a certain mentality to survive in such an industry.

Frankly how much do you know when you looked at 10 years track record. Have you been through the repeated heartaches of suffering start-up losses only to see ventures being sold off upon turn arounds? Have you been through cash calls? Even the latest special dividends from the prolonged unwinding of SAH is also heartaches.

My heart is definitely shattered here. I am beginning to sound like an old recorder.

Just be cautious.

GG

(12-07-2013, 09:44 PM)paullow Wrote: to me, new toyo still presents an attractive picture for investors:

1) undervalued pb 0.8~

2) attractive PE 7

3) regular dividends

4) raised dividends over the past 10 years.

http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/sgxweb/hom...ate_action

Unlocking of land value as suggested by underdogger I am not too sure.

But otherwise, all the above points would point towards a growing and sustainable business for the past 10years and will likely be the case in the future. Special dividends if any would be a bonus. Likely share price will trend upwards slowly but surely.

Hi GG,

I know what you mean. I am not vested in NT and would not likely do so, for the simple reason: its a sin industry.

I am against smoking personally.

The parameters I mentioned would be attractive to certain groups of investors.

Thanks anyway,

PL

The real fact is market entry price.
a. Those who bought below 20 cents should be laughing all the way.
b. Those who bought below 25 cents should be very happy too.
c. Those who bought below 30 cents - thinking hard whether to sell or buy more...

No one in his right mind will buy at current price of 30 cents, looking at all the track records to date...

(13-07-2013, 08:21 AM)Stockerman Wrote: The real fact is market entry price.
a. Those who bought below 20 cents should be laughing all the way.
b. Those who bought below 25 cents should be very happy too.
c. Those who bought below 30 cents - thinking hard whether to sell or buy more...

No one in his right mind will buy at current price of 30 cents, looking at all the track records to date...

I beg to differ especially for the © group, for the profile of long term investors.

For such investors, there is NO need to think hard to sell, cos they are in for long haul anyway. It is still undervalued parameters-wise. What's there to think hard?

It really depends on the profile of the investors.

For shorties, I agree that they would be looking at how many bids at 28c, 29c, 30c daily. Isn't that stressful?

For mid-term investors, they might hold on or take profits depending on their circumstance and plans.