Guthrie GTS

Corrections:

PL Sq Retail Space - 95000 sf or 8829 sm. Price tag for 100% is $300m.

Psf = $3158, Psm $33979.

Please take more care and spend more time when posting figures - can create stampede...

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...600288177/$file/20130611_LKHS_Misc_Proposed-transfer-retails-units-PLS_Att.pdf?openelement

Vested In All (GTS, LKH, LKT)
GG

(23-06-2013, 10:37 AM)shn Wrote: Just wish to point out some statistics on JP1 and JP extension (JPE) stated in Guthrie's FY12 Annual report:
JP1: $808,150,000; 35,718 sq m of lettable area (translates to $22,626 per sq m)
JPE: $690,000; 29,215 sq m of lettable area (translates to $23,618 per sq m)

In comparison, retail space at Alexadra Square of Chip Eng Seng is sold at $36,300 per sq m and Paya Lebar Square of Low Keng Huat is valued at $43,421 per sq m.

Even if JP1 and JPE are valued at a conservative value of $35,000 per square metre, the valuation gains attributed to Guthrie's 50% share of JP1 and JPE would have been $220,990,000 and $166,263,000, which translate to 20.5 cents and 15.4 cents, respectively, or 35.9 cents in total. Adding this to its BV of $1.01, the RNAV would be at least $1.37, not to mention about other smaller properties. This represents at least 36% discount to the offer price of $0.88.

Thanks for pointing out - I have mistaken the $300m for the 80% share.

Well, if I use $33,000 per sq me for JP1 and JPE, the valuation gain is 29.9 cents in total, whihc still gives an estimated RNAV of at least 130.9 cents, representing 49% premium over the offer price of 88 cents.

Anyway, make your own assumptions and do your own calculation.

Vest ed in GTS, LKH and Chip Eng Seng.

(23-06-2013, 11:16 AM)shn Wrote: Thanks for pointing out - I have mistaken the $300m for the 80% share.

Well, if I use $33,000 per sq me for JP1 and JPE, the valuation gain is 29.9 cents in total, whihc still gives an estimated RNAV of at least 130.9 cents, representing 49% premium over the offer price of 88 cents.

Anyway, make your own assumptions and do your own calculation.

Vest ed in GTS, LKH and Chip Eng Seng.

Technically, retail investors must be realistic that it is impossible to realize 100% RNAV or even 90% RNAV per share. No sensible owner will offer to delist the company with offer price that is closed to RNAV.

Buying a property centric company is liked buying a seat to look at piles of gold behind steel bars. You can see it, valuate it but you cannot touch it.
So, buy the seat only when there is a sale.

I calculated gearing about 30%+ now with 700+M debt vs 400+M cash. Without any big projects, it sounds more like using debt to buy properties then distributing the income. sounds more and more like becoming a REIT than a property developer

(23-06-2013, 12:06 PM)yeokiwi Wrote:

(23-06-2013, 11:16 AM)shn Wrote: Thanks for pointing out - I have mistaken the $300m for the 80% share.

Well, if I use $33,000 per sq me for JP1 and JPE, the valuation gain is 29.9 cents in total, whihc still gives an estimated RNAV of at least 130.9 cents, representing 49% premium over the offer price of 88 cents.

Anyway, make your own assumptions and do your own calculation.

Vest ed in GTS, LKH and Chip Eng Seng.

Technically, retail investors must be realistic that it is impossible to realize 100% RNAV or even 90% RNAV per share. No sensible owner will offer to delist the company with offer price that is closed to RNAV.

Buying a property centric company is liked buying a seat to look at piles of gold behind steel bars. You can see it, valuate it but you cannot touch it.
So, buy the seat only when there is a sale.

Well said... kiwi, you have truely been there done that... Towkay already kind enough to offer life float better think carefully rather than be iron teeth...

GG

When a GO has been made at a certain price. The relevant question is what is the true value of the counter, and hence, whether there is a lot of meat left for the offer to be revised upward.

If we take reference from the previous GO by the SSH in 2007, 39.5 cents was offered initially and the offer was raised by 10% to 43.5 cents. I think it is highly likely that the offer price will be revised. It will be 97 cents if it is raised by 10%.

Please do your own analysis and form your own opinion.

---

If one held the share when the previous offer was made and did not take offer the offer of 43.5 cents, at today's offer price of 88 cents plus a total of 16 cents dividend collected since 2007, the invetsor would have made 60.5 cents per share, which is an impressive 15% compunded annual return per year.

(23-06-2013, 12:06 PM)yeokiwi Wrote: Technically, retail investors must be realistic that it is impossible to realize 100% RNAV or even 90% RNAV per share. No sensible owner will offer to delist the company with offer price that is closed to RNAV.

Buying a property centric company is liked buying a seat to look at piles of gold behind steel bars. You can see it, valuate it but you cannot touch it.
So, buy the seat only when there is a sale.

Fully agree with you. This is why I usually take a hair-cut of 30% from RNAV to arrive at reasonable fair value. So this would work out to be about $1. if they offer a slightly higher GO like 95cents then minority SH should throw in the towel.88 I think is their testing water offer. High chance of revising the offer if minority resist.

What attracts me to GTS is not only their asset under valuation, it is also their mall mgt ala ARA type of recurring income. They are going to manage for the PL Sq mall coming soon. During the AGM I was fishing on the likelihood of them floating this business to compete against ARA. now we know why no intention.

vested in GTS, LKH and singhold

(23-06-2013, 02:27 PM)Jacmar Wrote: vested in GTS, LKH and singhold

Vested in the same 3 counters + C.E.S.

So far takeover of vested property counters included OUE, Allgreen, MCL & PanPac.

After GTS, who's next?

Guthrie 2007 takeover offer @ $0.395 circular extracts:

(b) The discount of S$0.095 per Share (or 19.4%) of the Offer Price to the NTA per Share
based upon the audited financial statements of the Group as at 31 December 2005;
© The discount of S$0.087 per Share (or 18.0%) of the Offer Price to the NTA per Share
based upon the unaudited financial results of the Group as at 31 December 2006;
(d) The surplus of S$19,739,000 of the valuation by independent experts to real properties
other than investment properties over the unaudited carrying values for such properties as
at 31 December 2006. Should such a surplus be incorporated into the NTA of the Group, it
would result in a Revalued NTA for the Group of S$537,389,000 equivalent to S$0.50 per
Share. The Offer Price represents a discount of S$0.105 per Share or (21.1%) to the
Revalued NTA of the Group as at 31 December 2006;

Final Offer came in at $0.435, implying at 13% discount to last reported RNAV of $0.50

Current unconditional offer of $0.88 vs RNAV of $1.01 also implies a similar discount. Unless of course, the new RNAV is higher than $1.01, then there remains a possibility of revision in offer. Pray hard...

GG

(24-06-2013, 11:50 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: Guthrie 2007 takeover offer @ $0.395 circular extracts:

(b) The discount of S$0.095 per Share (or 19.4%) of the Offer Price to the NTA per Share
based upon the audited financial statements of the Group as at 31 December 2005;
© The discount of S$0.087 per Share (or 18.0%) of the Offer Price to the NTA per Share
based upon the unaudited financial results of the Group as at 31 December 2006;
(d) The surplus of S$19,739,000 of the valuation by independent experts to real properties
other than investment properties over the unaudited carrying values for such properties as
at 31 December 2006. Should such a surplus be incorporated into the NTA of the Group, it
would result in a Revalued NTA for the Group of S$537,389,000 equivalent to S$0.50 per
Share. The Offer Price represents a discount of S$0.105 per Share or (21.1%) to the
Revalued NTA of the Group as at 31 December 2006;

Final Offer came in at $0.435, implying at 13% discount to last reported RNAV of $0.50

Current unconditional offer of $0.88 vs RNAV of $1.01 also implies a similar discount. Unless of course, the new RNAV is higher than $1.01, then there remains a possibility of revision in offer. Pray hard...

GG

Back then what was the IFA's range of assessed values?
Because the deal was >5years ago, SGX does not have the old IFA circular. Appreciate your insight.