The Next Big Crash - Are You Prepared?

Nikkie225 PE average is ~20 since 2010.

If we discrad the bubble year from 1900-2000, it follow quite closely to DOW. It had a super run (mini run?) fro 2002-2007 as well, up 125%, and then down 55% during WFC.

Note that despite the low during 2008-09, its PE shot up the the roof, mainly due to Japan companies not doing well.

Anybody has the PE ratio for STI index for past 10 years?

i read somewhere that our STI is trading around 13 time at present position.
Yield is around 3% plus or so.
Don't think it is too expensive....

Any views?

I thought the main idea of your original post was that depends on your timeframe, your conclusion would differ

And if we rebased in JPY, the comparative charts will look different as JPY was mostly appreciating until recently. Just as inflation debase a currency, deflation increases the value of the currency. So even though japanese FEEL poorer from deflation, JPY still retained purchasing power.

And since we are SGD consumers, if we rebase the charts in SGD, the conclusion might be different again.

(08-06-2013, 04:31 PM)swakoo Wrote: [Image: z?s=%5eN225&t=1m&q=l&l=off&z=m&c=%5ESTI,...&region=US]

OMG! Nikkei crashed 20% in past 2 weeks!



[Image: z?s=%5eN225&t=1y&q=l&l=off&z=m&c=%5ESTI,...&region=US]

Wow! Nikkei up 50% in past year!



[Image: z?s=%5eN225&t=my&q=l&l=off&z=m&c=%5ESTI,...&region=US]

OMG! Nikkei lost for nearly 3 decades!

IMO, STI's 13 PER is still has some upside. Watch out when PER >15.

(09-06-2013, 04:54 PM)camelking Wrote: Anybody has the PE ratio for STI index for past 10 years?

i read somewhere that our STI is trading around 13 time at present position.
Yield is around 3% plus or so.
Don't think it is too expensive....

Any views?

(09-06-2013, 05:06 PM)Ray168 Wrote: IMO, STI's 13 PER is still has some upside. Watch out when PER >15.

(09-06-2013, 04:54 PM)camelking Wrote: Anybody has the PE ratio for STI index for past 10 years?

i read somewhere that our STI is trading around 13 time at present position.
Yield is around 3% plus or so.
Don't think it is too expensive....

Any views?

Thank you, Ray!

From the chart, it seems that STI is a very conservative index. It has never traded above 20 PE ratio for the last 20 years.
(Unbeliveable! Are all the money locked in properties???)

In fact, it seems that it trades between 8 and 16 PE for the last couple of years...So, you could be right on being careful when it goes above 15 PE.

I was hoping for an exit point somewhere around 20 PE...unlikely it seems..

Where the source of yr chart? Is it accurate?

(09-06-2013, 05:25 PM)camelking Wrote:

(09-06-2013, 05:06 PM)Ray168 Wrote: IMO, STI's 13 PER is still has some upside. Watch out when PER >15.

(09-06-2013, 04:54 PM)camelking Wrote: Anybody has the PE ratio for STI index for past 10 years?

i read somewhere that our STI is trading around 13 time at present position.
Yield is around 3% plus or so.
Don't think it is too expensive....

Any views?

Thank you, Ray!

From the chart, it seems that STI is a very conservative index. It has never traded above 20 PE ratio for the last 20 years.
(Unbeliveable! Are all the money locked in properties???)

In fact, it seems that it trades between 8 and 16 PE for the last couple of years...So, you could be right on being careful when it goes above 15 PE.

I was hoping for an exit point somewhere around 20 PE...unlikely it seems..

Be careful or beware. Some SGX stocks may be trailing and some may be leading the STI average PE. i think it is helpful to monitor S & P 500 or the Dow and FTSE at the same time. In fact to me all markets (so far) follow the leader. i think you know who is the leader. i am just thinking whether one day China will be the leader.

(09-06-2013, 05:50 PM)Temperament Wrote:

(09-06-2013, 05:25 PM)camelking Wrote:

(09-06-2013, 05:06 PM)Ray168 Wrote: IMO, STI's 13 PER is still has some upside. Watch out when PER >15.

(09-06-2013, 04:54 PM)camelking Wrote: Anybody has the PE ratio for STI index for past 10 years?

i read somewhere that our STI is trading around 13 time at present position.
Yield is around 3% plus or so.
Don't think it is too expensive....

Any views?

Thank you, Ray!

From the chart, it seems that STI is a very conservative index. It has never traded above 20 PE ratio for the last 20 years.
(Unbeliveable! Are all the money locked in properties???)

In fact, it seems that it trades between 8 and 16 PE for the last couple of years...So, you could be right on being careful when it goes above 15 PE.

I was hoping for an exit point somewhere around 20 PE...unlikely it seems..

Be careful or beware. Some SGX stocks may be trailing and some may be leading the STI average PE. i think it is helpful to monitor S & P 500 or the Dow and FTSE at the same time. In fact to me all markets (so far) follow the leader. i think you know who is the leader. i am just thinking whether one day China will be the leader.

Thank you for your input...I buy STI ETF...not just individual stocks..

I wonder which stock or stocks are trading below PE of 13 within STI.

I don't remember anyone(maybe SembCorp?）. I don't count property stocks as their earnings are too erratic.

(09-06-2013, 06:10 PM)freedom Wrote: I wonder which stock or stocks are trading below PE of 13 within STI.

I don't remember anyone(maybe SembCorp?）. I don't count property stocks as their earnings are too erratic.

Sorry! i am speaking off-hand without backing with facts. That's why i give myself some leeway. i am saying maybe only.