The Next Big Crash - Are You Prepared?

(06-06-2013, 03:32 PM)kayhian Wrote: Is everyone waiting for a crash like 2008?

Do you know the last 2008/2009 (black swan) after 2007 Peak started from normal 2005 housing mortgage backed bonds to synthetic housing sub-prime loan CDO bonds?
This time around i think it should be related to QE. Same as the last episode above, nobody really knows what is going to happen. But some people (may be like J. Roger) thinks the World central bankers will not stop QE as they run out of solution liao.

(06-06-2013, 05:33 PM)Temperament Wrote: thinks the World central bankers will not stop QE as they run out of solution liao.

Results in eventual worldwide hyper-inflations?!

For US, I thinking why stop QE when unemployment havent reach target and inflation still within control?
That is the objective, the other consequences of unlimited money printing shd had been considered before they embark in this journey.

All this volatility come from the Fed's unclear signals since 22 May. Nothing had changed fundamentally yet, everyone was still high on drugs(QE) until after 22 May, when the thoughts of no more drug-for-sale forced everyone to think of the unthinkable, quiting drugs.

Could it be a conspiracy theory that the Feb will be tapering slowly, but getting the rest of the world to be conditioned to the eventuality first?

I think alot of market movement expected after tmr evening's US May unemployment rate data for SGX on Mon.

(06-06-2013, 01:02 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Just kidding I'm pleasantly surprised that people remember the signature... though I think it actually sums up my experience... Those who are "big time" and we are envious of today, may not be around to "play" in 10 years time.

So going back to the topic: Is crash a time to sell out or time to accumulate. It depends on your time frame and execution startegy with regards to your portfolio and leverage. There is no right answers. The wrong answer is obviously: I will be able to buy at bottom and sell at top.

Foe me it's alright to leave about 10 to 20 % of my money behind in both extremes of the market. Of course if i could i will try to leave 10% instead of 20 %. Another words, i always found myself buying and selling too early. It's alright as long as i make some money. As i am only a below average investor i have to believe & practise :- "Bulls & Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered.
Ha! Ha!

http://www.todayonline.com/business/sti-...ears-gains

STI plunges, wiping out almost all of year’s gains

SINGAPORE — Shares in the Republic continued to plunge yesterday, with the benchmark Straits Times Index erasing almost all of its gains this year on fears that global interest rates would begin to rise, as analysts warned that downward pressure would persist ahead of key policy decisions by the United States central bank and on uncertainty over Japan’s outlook.

The STI closed down 1.5 per cent, extending Wednesday’s decline of the same percentage magnitude to end at 3,193.51, the lowest close this year. This means the benchmark is holding on to a gain of only 0.8 per cent year to date, barely two weeks after it hit a five-year high of 3,454.37.

All but two of the 30 STI component stocks fell yesterday, with transport operator ComfortDelGro and warehousing and logistics giant GLP leading losses with declines of 3.2 per cent and 2.6 per cent, respectively.

“From a technical point of view, the STI has entered bearish territory having broken the 3,300-level and losing almost all its year-to-date gains,” said Mr Desmond Chua, an analyst at CMC Markets.

“The market has been very volatile due to a lot of QE (quantitative easing) talk … It’s a wait-and-see approach right now,” he said.

Elsewhere in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei-225 stock index closed down 0.9 per cent yesterday, China’s Shanghai Composite lost 1.3 per cent while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 1.1 per cent. Overnight, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 1.4 per cent.

Sentiment has been hit by uncertainty over whether the US Federal Reserve will start to scale back its QE programme, where it has committed to buying US$85 billion a month of bonds to keep interest rates low. Investors have also been readjusting portfolio positions ahead of today’s (FRI) US job report, which is closely watched because it could influence the Fed’s policy stance.

In Asia, Japan’s growth is starting to look doubtful, with investors unimpressed with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s plan to reform the economy, saying the programme lacked detail. That sent the Nikkei-225 down more than 20 per cent from its peak on May 22.

IG Markets’ strategist Kelly Teoh said that in light of the global conditions plus a bout of profit-taking, the STI’s downward spiral in recent days was “in line with global consensus.”

“The retracement in STI is not surprising … There was a run up in all markets this year, a correction is needed, but the extent at which it is happening is sending jitters,” she said.

“External downward pressure persists at the moment as investors stay cautious ahead of pending decisions from policy makers,” she added.

CMC’s Mr Chua said, “It all boils down to jobs data this Friday. Worsening employment conditions point towards weaker jobs data this Friday … while services PMI data came in higher than expected, (but) a further read into the report revealed that the employment index fell by 1.9 per cent.”

So.. does your portfolio return mirror the performance of STI return + 3% dividend yield)?
If it does, then it is probably the right time to rethink your strategy.

All portfolio will go and down with index but a good portfolio will typically down less.

This kind of situation is interesting since it offers a view of your portfolio performance and allows an investor to pause and think of the future equity strategy.

(07-06-2013, 09:22 AM)yeokiwi Wrote: So.. does your portfolio return mirror the performance of STI return + 3% dividend yield)?
If it does, then it is probably the right time to rethink your strategy.

All portfolio will go and down with index but a good portfolio will typically down less.

This kind of situation is interesting since it offers a view of your portfolio performance and allows an investor to pause and think of the future equity strategy.

I did review twice yearly, and half-year review is just around the corner. Out of curiosity, i did a pre-mature review of portfolio

Base on reports, dividend payout of first 5 months is S$7.29 bil, versus TTM dividend of S$14.94 bil. I estimate the up-to-date non-annualized dividend yield should be half of the 3.8% i.e. 1.9%

Base on 6 Jun STI index of 3194, non-annualized STI yield is 0.8%, and 2.7% (w/ dividend).

Well, look at portfolio as in 6 Jun, more than 13% above STI index yield with dividend, not too bad, but still room for improvement...

(07-06-2013, 11:34 AM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(07-06-2013, 09:22 AM)yeokiwi Wrote: So.. does your portfolio return mirror the performance of STI return + 3% dividend yield)?
If it does, then it is probably the right time to rethink your strategy.

All portfolio will go and down with index but a good portfolio will typically down less.

This kind of situation is interesting since it offers a view of your portfolio performance and allows an investor to pause and think of the future equity strategy.

I did review twice yearly, and half-year review is just around the corner. Out of curiosity, i did a pre-mature review of portfolio

Base on reports, dividend payout of first 5 months is S$7.29 bil, versus TTM dividend of S$14.94 bil. I estimate the up-to-date non-annualized dividend yield should be half of the 3.8% i.e. 1.9%

Base on 6 Jun STI index of 3194, non-annualized STI yield is 0.8%, and 2.7% (w/ dividend).

Well, look at portfolio as in 6 Jun, more than 13% above STI index yield with dividend, not too bad, but still room for improvement...

FANTASTIC!!!

I was lucky to be still in the black due to buying stable dividend-yieldings stock late last year before they ran up. Overall, still ok.

But the stable stock prices don't really seem to be correcting too much. Hence I'm still on a look-see basis to re-invest the dividends.

Singapore shares fell for a third consecutive session and were poised for their biggest weekly decline in nearly two years, as banking shares came under pressure over concerns the U.S. Federal Reserve may reduce its monetary stimulus programme.

The Straits Times Index fell as much as 0.5% to 3,178.82, its lowest since mid-January, while the MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 0.7%.

Shares of DBS Group Holdings, Singapore’s biggest lender, dropped 1.2% to $15.82, its lowest in more than six weeks. The stock was headed for a 7.2% drop from a week earlier, its sharpest weekly fall since August 2009.

United Overseas Bank fell 1.1% to an intra-day low of $20.11, on course for its biggest weekly decline in more than a year.

“We believe the key challenge for Singapore banks is managing margin pressure given the intense competition on loan pricing driven by foreign players and deposit pricing as system liquidity tightens,” said Barclays in a research note.

Regional business will be the key growth drivers for these banks, it said. Barclays kept a neutral outlook on the sector, preferring UOB with a target price of US$24 ($30).

Among other stocks, shares of CapitaLand, Southeast Asia’s biggest property developer, fell as much as 2.1% to $3.27, extending their decline for the third consecutive session.

seriously, who never take some profit after so many months of "too-good-to-be-sustainable" rally?

most experienced retail investors should be net positive one way or another.